PNW Conditions

Kleetus wrote

Not sure where I'll go yet. Thinking Crystal and Stevens, but really can go anywhere. Not booking hotel to base out of until the dates get closer and the forecast is clearer.

Any recommendations on where to ski? I don't have any Avi or BC gear, so would be staying in-bounds. That being said, I'm all about skiing the woods and off trail. Definitely not looking to ski groomers.

Everything JTG said.  

You should definitely consider 2 days at Crystal.  It's about equal drive to Stevens, but I think the drive to Crystal is a bit easier.  We want snow, but it will definitely make the drive to either a pain in the ass.  You're starting at about sea level and ascending 4,000 ft.  Both will be crowded.  I don't have much experience at Crystal, but based on the layout, and lift capacity, I would think it's easier to dodge the crowds over there than at Stevens.  Don't get me wrong, I love Stevens.  I ride their often (never on the weekends).  I would say there is more bang for your buck at Crystal.  If you want less than hour drive consider Alpental.  Would definitely not recommend it on a weekend.

It looks like we're in a mini-cycle now.  The coming week looks really good.  Hopefully the typical January high-pressure pattern holds off.  Either way, chances are good that you have some fresh snow to ride on.  

I would meet up with you but I am leaving to go East over to Idaho for that week with my wife.  Probably going to ride Bogus and Sun Valley.

I'll look forward to reading your TR

Things look good for this weekend...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Spokane WA
346 AM PST Wed Dec 27 2017

...Long Period of Accumulating Heavy Snow...

.A pair of moist Pacific storm systems will impact the region
Thursday and Thursday night and again Friday and Friday night. The
mountains ringing the Columbia Basin will accumulate impressive
amounts of snow during this period. The valleys also have the
potential to experience heavy snow accumulations.

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Plan on difficult travel conditions,
  including during the evening commute on Friday. Total valley
  snow accumulations of 8 to 13 inches possible, with mountain
  accumulations of 2 to 3 feet.

Sounds awesome. Hope it stays cold through next week and weekend to preserve or at least doesn't rain.

I tried to plan my way into a trip to the PNW for Jan 7/8, but no go.

Did you decide where you are going to ski?  Crystal and Stevens both looking at several feet the next couple of days.  Seems like typical early January cold should stick around through next week.  Stevens may stay a little colder overall being further north.  However, Crystal often benefits from the extra 1,000+ of vertical it has over others.  Sometimes in January at Crystal you see it above freezing at the base, with freezing levels somewhere between 5,000 and 6,000, leaving you with still another 1,000+ of vertical of the best skiing that stays nice and cold.

Tomorrow should be excellent everywhere... maybe a bit warmish to the South.  There is a bit rain foretasted for the Oregon Cascades.

It's a bit thin in spots, but mostly carvable.  I'd say about half of the acreage is ride-worthy.  Remarkably empty for a holiday week at Mission.  Lonely laps over on chair 3.
 

Initial plan is to hit Crystal for 2 days, Stevens for 1. If there is rain after this storm next week, will head north for at least 2 of the days and check out Baker. If conditions completely turn bad, will drive to Whistler as a backup.

Of course, I see back east there is potential for a major storm next week. I can tell you right now. There will be a big storm. Happens every time I go out west during the winter whether it be for work or otherwise.  

Shit.  Even out West you can’t entirely trust snow reports.  Hoping to see some more skier reports from today or tomorrow.  Yes, Crystal has received 22 inches of snow the past 48 hours.  6 of it was during the day today.  What the resort reports fails to disclose is that the previous 16 inches from this cycle included about a foot, followed in the Thursday overnight by a 1/4 to 1/2 inch rain crust, covered by another 4 inches or so.  Same was true around Stevens.  

So while there is plenty of snow....yesterday and today, to a lesser extent, included dealing with a rain crust under powder.  As per some skier reports it made for some less than ideal skiing, and the new on top of the crust was pretty reactive.  Hopefully by the end of next week things consolidate and they are expecting a little new snow toward the end of the week.  Dreamy enough conditions for the east coast, but a complication I wish you didn’t have to consider for your trip Seattle way.

Although it seems par for the course.  Half of the trips I’ve had to the PNW or the Sierras have included dealing with ncp at lower elevations and rain crusts at some levels.

Haven’t seen any skier reports from Baker so I don’t know if they got the same rain crust in the Thursday overnight.

In case you aren’t familiar....Turns-all-year.com is a great site for info and reports from the PNW.

You are going to have a great time, but such are the PNW complications!

Oh, and if you are going to hit up Crystal definitely get the FATMAP app.  It’s definitely worth buying the premium version.  It gives you the location and skinny on all marked runs as well as a plethora of lines not marked on the map.

JTG4eva! wrote

You are going to have a great time, but such are the PNW complications!

Right on JTG.  While we did have amazing snow above 6k from this cycle, there were a couple of blasts of warm air that rained on the parade for a bit.  We got a ton of snow, but overall the cycle was a bit disappointing.  Wait... that's the hardcore snow-snob doosh-bag in me speaking... the Optimist in me says, we needed snow, so it was a net positive over here on the dry side.  Closer to the Crest (Stevens/Crystal) there was already a fair amount of snow, so you'll hear a lot of snobbery over in that neck of the mountains.  Mainly because the rain crust and massive amounts of wind have significantly destabilized the snow-pack.  Even over here it's very reactive.  It looked like the vast majority of the bombs from the control work this morning caused slides.  I was out early, and witnessed a small skier triggered slide above the transition zone between the upper basin and chair 3.  It left a 8 foot high pile on the cat track.  I suspect it could've resulted in a full burial if someone was in the wrong place at the wrong time.

That said, there was a brief period of classic Mission Ridge blower  up high on Friday  

MIni-Weave... weavin

That pic looks nice.....I’m starting to jones for a PNW fix!

Trust me not being picky at all. I know the PNW gets rain and am ready for it. I'll take what the mountains give me.

Appreciate all the tips and PNW ski resources.

I just hope you get kick ass conditions.  Crystal is such a huge, fun place.  My trips have all been storm chases, and in great conditions the place is awesome.  Even chasing I’ve had to deal with rain/snow lines around 5,500.  I’ve always had an awesome time.  I know you’ll have a great time whatever the weather throws at you, but I hope you hit it good.

Looks like they have a system moving in Thursday through the weekend.  Through Friday freezing levels may fluctuate around 5,000 ft, then drop for the weekend.  The coverage out there improved a lot with the last cycle and if they get upwards of 10 inches at elevation through the weekend it should be nice up high.  Crystal’s elevation should be your friend!

So Kleetus......how goes the thought process on your adventure, closer to deciding where to ski?  You hit a complicated weather scenario!

Moisture throughout the Cascades Thursday into Friday, along with freezing levels now forecast around 7k.  Those levels drop to 4K and below starting Friday night into Sat, but the moisture may not be as widespread by then.  And who knows how confident any of those forecasts are!

Hey, my last trip out that way I didn’t decide until Wed whether I was going Tahoe or Seattle way, and even once I settled on the PNW it took until Thursday afternoon to decide between Crystal and Baker.  

All the things I typically consider....Baker might be my call, if I were going this weekend.  Better confluence of moisture and lowering freezing levels, with Baker having the most snow in the forecast after some Thurs/Fri ncp, with potential for heavy snowfall Friday night into Saturday when the freezing level does fall.  Baker also could keep the snow machine going through the weekend, whereas Crystal doesn’t look as active Saturday and early Sunday.  Combine that with some skier intel on Crystal conditions yesterday (off piste/non-groomed anywhere from “challenging”, “crunchy and rutted”, and “unskiable” in some areas, to “not too bad” or “pretty good” if you “picked your spots”), with no certainty they’ll get enough snow Friday night to improve things significantly, and I’d roll the dice with Baker this weekend.  Better base, better forecast, better chance for a significant refresh.

Oh, and the forecast this time tomorrow could be different!  Not easy planning a PNW ski adventure, but you are definitely going to have fun!!

Well am getting different reads from different forecasts. Snowforecast.com is showing Crystal getting a fair amount of snow Fri-Sun from mid-mountain up at Crystal. Showing very little snow and mainly ncp at Baker. Now check another forecast such as NWS, get a different answer.

I can get a hotel close to Baker or Crystal (~1hr drive) on short notice, and haven't booked anything other than my rental car and a place to stay near the airport Friday night since I get in later. So at this point I can make the call at the last minute on where to go. Your post has me thinking Baker Fri-Sat and then drive down near Seattle Sunday after and then maybe hit Crystal or Stevens Monday if they get a refresh. If not, just will stay up at Baker.

Any intel on conditions at Baker right now? I've been looking but haven't seen much.

TAY has a report from Heather Meadows/Herman Saddle on Jan 1.  Some soft snow hiding on sheltered, shaded slopes, but otherwise quite variable.

Yes, I see that snow-forecast/mountain-forecast have backed off their Friday night snowfall at Baker, with the freezing level slowed to come down.  With higher elevation it looks like Crystal might be better......until the forecast changes again?  Uuggghhh.  Glad you are positioned for a last minute call!!

Yeah... hard to say what's going to happen.... It could be a bit icy with some sugar on top later in the weekend.

We've bagged the Idaho plan and opted for a trip up to Nelson... Red on Sunday, and Whitewater for Monday and Tuesday.  It looks like light to moderate snow Friday through Tuesday up in that neck of the woods.

I’ve been meaning to say....when using snow-forecast/mountain-forecast you can search for Naches Peak to get a good idea of what Crystal is likely to get.  Naches is close by and similar in elevation.

Pendulum seems to have swung Crystal’s way, for now.  Can’t wait for your trip report.

So Ullr may not smile on you, but no matter!

The Alpine Inn at Crystal has a room available for tomorrow night.  Book it and you won’t regret it, if you plan on throwing a few (too many) back on Saturday night.  The Snorting Elk is an amazing place to hang.  Last time I was there I drank with a bunch of twenty-something’s who worked at the mountain and lived in the employee housing.  Good times, until I passed out.

Crystal will get some snow tonight, and even if conditions aren’t stellar the sheer enormity of the place, and all you can explore, is mind boggling.  Doesn’t look like Baker is going to do much better, and it’s a much sleepier apres hill, with all the lodging is down mountain.

Have fun!

Another interesting source for you.....check out winterscience.com.  Mega data driven weather site that focuses on Crystal.  3 inches or so tonight, then quiet until Sunday night.  Crystal or Baker (or other locations) could be good on Monday.

Still not sure where I'm going. Going to wake up tomorrow and see what the day brings. Forecasts are starting to trend for a decent snowfall at Baker tonight and Sunday. If that's the case may head up there all three days, or hit there 2 days and Crystal 1. Weather will dictate where I end up.

I saw the room available at the Alpine Inn. Def going to stay there if I do 2 days at Crystal. I'll know tomorrow morning once I get a handle on the snowfall. I hope whatever does fall is dense to soften things up underneath.

Thanks again for all the tips! I'll report back on what the mountains give.

Can’t wait, no matter what happens it’s going to be a good time!  Even though the weather isn’t ideal....I’m so jealous!  I’m headed to LA on business on the 25th, so I may be headed to Seattle way soon.