PNW Conditions

nepa wrote

It's time to start praying...

Last night's prayers paid off... Pow Day @ the Ridge tomorrow!

It's cold and dry, but we have another potential Cycle on the horizon for next week...
 

Poor viz down low...


Sweet views up high...


Good surface conditions over at Mission.  Crystal is spinning lifts, and so are 49 and Mt Spokane in the East, but that's pretty much it for lift service in WA.  Bachy, Meadows and Timberline are operating in Oregon.  If next week pans out, I think we'll be in full swing for next weekend.

nepa wrote

Good on ya. Nice!

I’ve been reading that there’s some significant surface hoar out there right now, and next week’s storms are coming in cold.  Not to mention there are some crusty layers in the shallow snowpack.  Be careful out there next week.  Even though the season hasn’t really started, you could use some wet Cascade Concrete to settle things down.....

http://www.turns-all-year.com/skiing_snowboarding/trip_reports/index.php?topic=41142.0

Have fun, stay safe.

Business opportunity may bring me west in January....that’s always a good thing!

JTG4eva! wrote

Business opportunity may bring me west in January....that’s always a good thing!

It would be nice if that opportunity knocked this weekend... we're about to get what looks to be an Epic cycle

 

nepa wrote

JTG4eva! wrote

Business opportunity may bring me west in January....that’s always a good thing!

It would be nice if that opportunity knocked this weekend... we're about to get what looks to be an Epic cycle

What are your thoughts headed into the weekend of the 22nd? I have a last minute business trip to the Bay area that will have me out there for a meeting on Dec 19th. Thinking of changing my flight on the way home and making a diversion either up to the PNW, Tahoe, or Colorado and skiing the 20th through the 22nd and heading back on the 23rd.

Tahoe and Colorado got slammed past few weeks but looking like no chances for new snow either place until after Christmas. Seeing this PNW storm cycle has me tempted to head up that way, but want to try and avoid getting burned like last time I went up during a cycle where forecasts flopped near the end and ended up warming up, raining, and freezing hard by the time I got up there.

Colorado has gotten so much snow very tempting to go that route even though it will not have snowed in a while.

I am back out in the bay area again mid-January, and am planning to fit in some skiing somewhere out west on that trip too.

Kleetus wrote

What are your thoughts headed into the weekend of the 22nd?

It's hard to say, but it looks much better than it did last week.  There are two more systems in store for this week, and then a couple more for the following week.  There may be some rain next week, but it looks to be staying on the cold side of things for now.  The current snow-pack situation looks to be improving, but we are still only at about 60% of normal.

Stevens and Baker opened today,  Crystal has been spinning lifts on limited terrain for a couple of weeks now.  All three have received a significant amount from the last two systems (30+ inches over the past 5 days).    I'm pretty sure, they'll all be in full operation by the 22nd.  The pow-potential-factor is always a crap-shoot.  It looks good now, but who knows how it will look next week.

Kleetus wrote

What are your thoughts headed into the weekend of the 22nd?

As of right now, next weekend looks pretty good... both sides of the crest have picked up a lot of snow over the past couple of days... next few days look to bring even more snow.  East of the crest stays cold (classic cold air dam in place now... snow levels in the west rose to 6k today, stayed as low as 4k over here in the Eastern desert), West of the Crest warms briefly (maybe some pass level rain on Tuesday), but then looks to be  cold by the weekend.  Snow in the forecast pretty much everyday through Thursday.

It's still a bit thin, but the next few days should get us right where we should be for mid December.  I would be surprised of the majority of PNW areas weren't in full operation by next week.  Off piste may still be a bit Sharky in spots, but in the coming days, things should become generally Sharkfree across the range.

It's Go Time in the PNW...

We've got a possible foot in store through tomorrow.  Even more has fallen and will continue to fall West of us (2 to 3 more ft on the way)... if you can get here, this is the place to be for the holidays!!

Sure looks like it! Tried to make it happen but changing my flight for work to get up there this week was unfortunately insanely expensive ($1k change fee no thanks). Headed to Denver instead since that cost me nothing .

Have another trip out west mid-January. Eyeing the PNW or Utah for that one since I couldn't get up there for this storm cycle.

Totals have been epic the last week and look like there is no sign of that letting up.

Stay safe out there nepa!

https://instagram.com/p/BrV57fIlobZ/

JTG4eva! wrote

Stay safe out there nepa!

https://instagram.com/p/BrV57fIlobZ/

Right on JTG... it's pretty sketchy pretty much everywhere... even over here in the desert.

NWAC wrote

In recent days, there have been reports of skier triggered, explosive triggered, and remotely triggered avalanches on Mission Ridge on a layer of buried facets above a late November crust near the ground. These were on Northwest to East aspects, near and above treeline. With the recent accumulation and wind, we have likely added a slab to areas where previously the upper snowpack wasn’t cohesive enough to communicate a fracture with the weak layer. Expect slides to fail near the ground and may propagate long distances. Stick to slopes of less than 30 degrees. Avoid terrain where slides can start, run, and stop, especially if you notice any whumpfing, shooting cracks, or recent deep avalanches.  

nepa wrote

raisingarizona wrote

A rain crust near the ground or any at all can really spice things up.

It's going to be sketchy for a while longer... even more cold snow coming in the next several days.  I'm not complaining,,, in bounds at Mission has been spectacular.  A handful of people sharing 2000 acres of goodness

Sounds nice!

As for outside the ropes.....as if the crust and pwl at the bottom of the snowpack wasn’t enough to keep people in the resort, now there are likely to be lots of wind loaded slopes and wind slab at the top of the snowpack.

Not sure if the wind storm yesterday made it to the desert, but Baker recorded their highest wind since the NWAC telemetry center was installed on Pan Dome.  A 117 mph gust, but more significantly a 5 hour window with wind gusts over 100 mph.  In the previous 11 years that center has been open there have only been a total of 9 hours in which gusts over 100 were observed.

As much as I miss the Cascades, not having gotten out there last year, Tahoe has finally gotten caught up (Granite Chief just opened) and Colorado has had their best early season in a long time, so any January trip might go one of those ways.

I have to look into Whistler/Blackcomb.  I don’t know if the pwl issues that WA is experiencing are a factor there.

nepa.....what’s the locals outlook for weather through next week?  Thinking of a possible trip out to the Steven’s Pass area for the 11th to the 13th.  Looks like fluctuating freezing levels (surprise, surprise) to go along with any unsettled weather/precip....

JTG4eva! wrote

nepa.....what’s the locals outlook for weather through next week?  Thinking of a possible trip out to the Steven’s Pass area for the 11th to the 13th.  Looks like fluctuating freezing levels (surprise, surprise) to go along with any unsettled weather/precip....

It's looking decent... typically, we will go dry for the majority of January... so anything we get over next couple of weeks is a bonus.  Last weekend we got our much needed rain, so the snow pack has stabilized considerably in many areas.  I was out touring up high on Monday.  Anything below 6500ft on the East side is pretty crappy... We found about 200 vf of cold snow... the remaining 1500 was crusty junk.



We need a refresh.  Unfortunately, we're in for an ice storm tonight.  More snow than ice to the West, but still a bit sketchy.  This storm appears to be followed by some pro-longed instability.  It's cold now (22 @ my house 3500ft), but winds are supposed to shift to the South for a period, and then come back to the north for a blast of cold air which should remain in place for the next 2 systems.

It's always a cap-shoot JTG, but I have a good feeling about this next cycle...

I'll keep you posted... if the current pattern plays out for the long range (1 of these every other day or so), then obviously I would say go for it



It looks good through next Tuesday...


Plan accordingly... If you can ski on Monday the 14th, you'll be golden.  Stevens is a wreck on the weekends... the lots fill early especially if there is fresh snow.  This past weekend, they were filled up by 10AM.  It can get ugly both coming and going in terms of traffic.  The Seattle volume has exploded over the last decade.

Thanks for the 411!

If I can swing the trip I would grab a spot with Cascade Powder Guides.  They have a 3 day guided cat skiing trip that includes “lodging” in their yurt at 5,000 ft on Windy Mountain (a ridge or two away from Steven’s), meals, and 3 days of cat skiing.  At $1,195 it’s a steal.  I’d be getting out to the Steven’s area on Friday morning.

Alas, my daughter has to get back to Boston that weekend, so I may need to be home.