Probability they open The Slides?

looking for some advice. i want to ski the slides on Monday. i don't
want to drive the 2.5 hrs only to have them not be open. the long range
forecast for monday is sunny with temps in 40's. based on your
experiences what is the probability ski patrol will open the slides on
monday ? thanks

The life of a Slides hopeful!  The waiting/wishing/hoping game.  Been there.  Here is what you are going to do, the only thing you can do......

First a question....do you have avi gear?  Yes, they were open Gold this week, but there is some weather coming in and you never know how that might change things.  Consider getting beacon/probe/shovel if you are serious about getting in the Slides Monday, or in the future.  You may not end up needing it, but it would stink to get up there only to be denied by Silver status.

Ok, next is to watch what happens this weekend.  There is a lot of snow in there, but not the best coverage they've ever had. There is a mixed bag of precip coming in waves from Thursday am to Sun am.  First tonight into tomorrow afternoon, then maybe again late Sat.  Some snow, sleet, freezing r**n.  How much, what types, anyone's guess.  So, watch and see if they open this weekend, especially Sunday.  If they open Sunday it means that they survived whatever ice or non-frozen precip fell on them.  If they open Sunday, see if you can't get some feedback here.  Regarding that avi gear, if there is a store nearby that has it you could wait to see what status they are Sunday, if they do open.  If Gold you may be able to pass on the gear.....but it's still a good investment if you are serious about skiing terrain like that in the future.  

Now, if they don't open Saturday/Sunday it only raises the uncertainty level and makes your decision harder, because you won't know why they didn't open.  Did they not survive the r*^n?  Were they too firm with the cold weather filtering in Sat/Sun?  What does it all mean for Monday?

Regardless of what happens this weekend, you will find yourself frustratingly agonizing over your decision on Sunday night.

As for Monday.....well, you could check the conditions report.  The Slides don't usually open any sooner than 10:00.  On many of the recent days they have posted in the conditions report by 7:00 that they expect them to be open.  You could wait to see if that happens, and still leave in time to be there before 10:00.  Of course, even if they post that they expect them to open, it doesn't guarantee they will.  Trust me on that.

In the end, there is a chance you go and have a great day in the Slides.  There is just as good a chance you make the call to go, and you are met with disappointment and they don't open.  Heck, probably more of a chance.  There is also the real possibility that you make the call to not go....and then you find they open, and you'll be kicking yourself.  In a nutshell....you are pretty much screwed.  Like I said, I've been there, done that....agonizing over the conditions, the likelihood they will open, the three hour drive each way.  There have been times I have 1) rolled the dice, gone, and won, 2) rolled the dice, gone, and lost, and 3) took my marbles and stayed home only to find they opened.

My advice is this...pack your stuff and take your chances because you will have no idea if they will open Monday, and you'll kick yourself if you don't go and they open.  Know that if you do go and they don't open you will likely have a pretty epic spring day on everything but the Slides, and that is not a horrible thing.  Like I said, I speak from experience.  I have made the drive only to be met with the disappointment of them not opening, and once over that disappointment I had a spectacular day.

Oh, about one of those times I went for the day and they didn't open......had nothing to do with conditions or weather.  There was some policeman's race or something and there wasn't enough patrol or staff to open them.  So even if you think you have a handle on it, some thing can come out of left field and screw you up!

Like I said, you just never know.  Take a chance and good luck!

If they are closed, enjoy Cloudspin, Cloudsplitter Grades and the Sugar Valley Glades.   All have been fun lately.  I hope for you tha they are open though.

It really depends on how much rain we get.  A little drizzle and if it warms back up and is sunny Monday there is a chance

If it rains a quarter to half inch as forecast I think they might be done for the season

100%

i emailed whiteface and got the following reply

"It’s still tough to say. They are open today but looking at the weekend weather, we have warmer temps and rain that could disrupt their opening. Email us again on Sunday or call us directly"

if the slides don't open on a sunny 40 something degree day i would be shocked. thanks for the input.

I probably should just stay out of it, but...

I'm certainly no expert on backcountry skiing or avalanche avoidance, but is it a good idea to advise someone who has no practice with beacons and probes to buy them on the way to the mountain?

You have a point, but....In this instance I'm ok with it.  We are talking about controlled access sidecountry here, not uncontrolled backcountry.  Just saying at WF right now the equipment is a safeguard against patrol opening with Silver status as a means to control access if things get sketchy in terms of coverage and surface.  Given that they have been Gold this week, avalanche is obviously not a big concern.  If they were going to get a foot of powder and an actual avalanche became more of a real possibility, yes....you should actually know how to use the beacon for a search so you could assist if someone got buried.  

I would never suggest someone go into uncontrolled and unpatrolled backcountry that could be avalanche prone without knowing how to dig a pit and assess stability, and without properly knowing how to conduct a search and dig someone out.  

I think they are a good bet for Monday. They skied great today...lots of snow..a little rain and warmer temps won't hurt much.

Amended advice for Sig, Mr. Peninsula, based on the latest forecasts for this weekend.

Go out at get your beacon, shovel and probe this weekend so that you have some time to familiarize yourself with its use.  While there is some uncertainty in the forecasts regarding precip types, most are now calling for upwards of a foot or more of heavy, dense snow Saturday night into Sunday.  That would be great for the Slides, but would likely put them back to Silver status for a while.  

There isn't much to learn on receive mode so people can find you, but search is another story, in the event one ever had to locate a partner or assist in a search.  Reading up is not as good as practicing a search, but it's better than not knowing anything.

The chance of precip is 100% Sat night, let's hope it's snow on the mountain.  An inch of rain would be a very bad thing.

Seems to me a beacon should be a requirement any time you go in the slides.  It just makes sense. A beacon would make the sweep much easier and safer.

tjf1967 wrote

Seems to me a beacon should be a requirement any time you go in the slides.  It just makes sense. A beacon would make the sweep much easier and safer.

Even when they just ask to see it and not make sure it's functioning?

A beacon functioning or not won't help sweep, in fact if patrol had to do sweep listening or looking at a beacon just incase there was some unreported missing person it would complicate things dramatically. It does increase the odds of successful rescue when they know about where to look. It does not guarantee rescue. It most certainly makes recovery of the body easier.

The newer beacons are extremely easy to use, but you should practice to get a feel for it, but to practice you need 2. There are good online videos on conducting a probe search and the proper technique for shoveling.

A foot of wet on top of a rain crust might make the Avy gear more than just a traffic reduction device.  If the storm pans out they will be back to silver for sure.  If it's all rain they are probably done for the season because it will be a lot of rain.

The original question was about Monday which will if snow probably happen.  I have go on a business trip then.  Can anyone recall if the slides have ever opened the day after a night snow event?  I usually recall Patrol waits a day or two to open after that.

skimore wrote

tjf1967 wrote

Seems to me a beacon should be a requirement any time you go in the slides.  It just makes sense. A beacon would make the sweep much easier and safer.

Even when they just ask to see it and not make sure it's functioning?

Not sure if this is the most productive turn this thread could have taken.....

Yeah that is just wrong.  Going down slide three if someone were in the bushes you would pick up the beep.  How can that not help.  

As far as them making sure people have them turned on well that will come.  

Coach Z wrote

A foot of wet on top of a rain crust might make the Avy gear more than just a traffic reduction device.

Agreed, hence the change in my recommendation on getting gear and being familiar with it.  If they do get significant snow it will be interesting to see how quickly they open.  A nice coating of peanut butter would set them up well for April!

how long have they been doing the medal designations and avy gear requirements?

tjf1967 wrote

As far as them making sure people have them turned on well that will come.

{as gaper JTG is overheard saying to patrol at Slides entrance}
S*^t, this thing needs batteries?!?

5 years give or take