Sandy and Irene - cyclic ocean temps or global warming?

Attn:  Harv

Lionel should be your goto guy for winter weather.  He's spot on.  When I need to know weather I email him.  

Holy shit!  This thread just went from zero to really weird in record time.  TJ - Elitist?  Huh?  I don't get that.  Scotty - do you think I'm denying AGW?  Or even that it may well have made the effects of Sandy worse?  Did you even read my posts?  I just think you may be conflating a few scientific concepts but I don't disagree with your general concerns.   Chill out guys.  This thread was started to discuss the science and that's all I'm doing.

Noah John wrote

Huh?  I don't get that.  

Like I said.

Noah John wrote

Chill out guys.

Pot calling kettle, come in please.

Wow I put this topic up this am and didn't come back to check on it to now - didn't expect a Noah and Scotty knock down and drag out fight.

His politics aside Bastardi had some good points.

1) that the Pacific is actually historically very cold right now so you can not say all the oceans are warming.

2) that there is a series of cycles that are unrelated to global warming where the Atlantic and Pacific take turns being warmer and cooling - the why part is beyond my understanding of the science but that seems to be considered a standing fact.  When the Atlantic is in the warm cycle there are stronger hurricanes but Global warming is not the reason.

3) Dopes like the Soda Nazi of NYC Bloomburg keep saying that it Irene and Sandy are the result of Global warming because they never happened before when in the 1950's there were plenty of like minded Northeast impacting Hurricanes.  Bastardi says that we are reliving the weather of the 1950's.  His data looks compelling.



All people are short sited to say wow something like Irene has never happened before so man must of caused it.  I'm not a scientist but I know enough to have learned that our experience with all things nature from weather to geology is a fraction of a millisecond compared to the eons of time.  We think Irene was the biggest storm ever in the DAK's but something carved out all the slides , the ausable valley and AuSable Chasm and it likely made Irene look like a spring shower.  Man just wasn't around to see it or blog about it.  

receding glaciers carved out the Adirondacks Coach.  

Simple science clearly proves the earth normally goes through heating and cooling trends.  That same simple science also proves the current warming trend is occurring at a super fast pace compared w/ historic trends.  Denying human activities are impacting this is delusional.  It's really that simple.  




 

 

Sick Bird Rider wrote

Noah John wrote

Huh?  I don't get that.  

Like I said.

Noah John wrote

Chill out guys.

Pot calling kettle, come in please.

Receding glacials did not create the slides and much of the more recent (in geologic) terms features of the Daks.  The slides had to be caused by even bigger events than Irene or multiple Irene sized rain events.  So the idea that Global warming caused Irene is just not valid.  Irene or Super Irene has happned many many times over thousands of years before Global warming every was a theory.

I'm not saying that man is not influencing the warming of the planet.  I'm saying the science does not support the popular misperception that Global warming is creating more and more powerful Hurricanes.  The data just does not support it.

Both sides try to use data that shows heating in the Atlantic and cooling in the Pacific as proof of their arguement.  My point is that short term measurements of 10 or even 50 years are not useful in this discussion.

I respectfully disagree w/ your position that climate change is not impacting strength of storms.  Noting you can say will influence my position.  End of dicussion.  Moving on...  

I actually agree with Noah that most people don't know anything about anything and situations like these are best left to people who know what they're talking about. I'm a geologist who is familiar with natural earth cycles (fun fact: there used to be a temperate deciduous forest on Greenland while the continent was in its present location way up north) and I took a college level oceanography course (pacific ocean currents are cooler in north america because they rotate clockwise and come from Alaska. The atlantic coast is warmer because of the gulf stream) and I still admit that I don't know too much about it.

So, I trust the people who study this sort of thing (and the only true scientists who are skeptical seem to be paid quite handsomely by the oil, gas, and coal industries). And I also think that even if you believe that the earth goes through natural cycles, or you don't believe that extreme weather events are caused by global warming, or you don't even believe that the earth is getting warmer, isn't it a dangerous experiment to pump 29 billion tons of carbon dioxide (the equivalent of 100 huge volcanoes) per year into the atmosphere?

Thats cool - its a free country and we can all beleive what ever we want regardless if the data backs it up or not.  Let me know how the flat earth thing turns out for you.

Based on your thinking your are evidently qualifed to go run a huge city or ban all soda from the free world.  Just don't go banning beer.  

Also, is it just me, or is Coach Z becoming increasingly dick-ish on this forum? Thinking of this thread and the Whiteface/Gore thread. Just say your opinions or facts and move on. No need to say "let me know how that flat earth thing works out" to somebody who clearly just said that they respectfully disagree with you.

I understand good natured ribbing, but he obviously wanted to leave the conversation. Why try to drag him back in with a cheap shot?

Coach Z wrote

Receding glacials did not create the slides

never said they did

Coach Z wrote

The slides had to be caused by even bigger events than Irene or multiple Irene sized rain events.  

Slide 2B happened after the 4/21/12 rain storm event which dropped like 4-inches of rain compared to 10 inches of rain during Irene.

Slides in ADK happen w/ lot less rain than Irene.  It's a factor of shallow soil perched on very steep bedrock.


 

My apologies.  It was a lame attempt at humor

I have seen read been told studies.  

If you believe that there is global warming then by that very fact you would think storms can be stronger.  I dont know if it pumped up the storms in the past two years.  I also not a envirmento freak.  But it is a fact the temp of the earth is going up...and that warmer weather created more violent storms... just seems to reason that..  

Put facts in front of me and I will make my own decision.  

I'm not disputing the whole Global warming thing.  As Matt put it clearly Man is putting huge amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere and that is not a good thing.

As Noah previously put it and I repeated the scientific data would indicate the absense of a link between tropical storms and GW.  When I started the thread I was not sure which way I felt about all this and have done some research and listened to Noah and made my decision.  Scotty has done the same and concluded differently.

There has been lots of really funny stuff posted lately but unfortunately I just am not that funny so I apologize to Scotty for that.  Nor do I know Scotty like Noah evidently does so again I errored in my banter.

The Gore vs. Whiteface battle royale was a differnt animal altoghter and I felt we were free to have at it as you all did as well.

No worries, man. I've definitely had people mistake my jokes before... Just thought that he was sincerely trying to let the threadburn out nice and peacefully and you poured gasoline all over the place. I don't really care. In fact I like a lively discussion (although I can think of a lot of things I'd rather argue about).

Coach Z wrote

There has been lots of really funny stuff posted lately but unfortunately I just am not that funny so I apologize to Scotty for that.  Nor do I know Scotty like Noah evidently does so again I errored in my banter.

The Gore vs. Whiteface battle royale was a differnt animal altoghter and I felt we were free to have at it as you all did as well.

Coach, I took no offensive to it at all!  I'm as thick skinned as they come and love the back and forth banter!   No need to apologize!!  

mattchuck2 wrote

 I don't really care. In fact I like a lively discussion (although I can think of a lot of things I'd rather argue about).

post one up!!  Ding, Ding!!