Sandy and Irene - cyclic ocean temps or global warming?

I'm not a weather pro like many others that post on NYSB and I saw this interesting discussion last night about the cause for Sandy and Irene.

I've heard that Joe Bastardi is a very well respected forecaster particularly for winter and tropcial storms.  His point is that the cause is a cyclic change in ocean temps with a very warm Atlantic and a very Cool Pacific Ocean.  We are revisting this that last happened in the 1950's which also had storms hitting the NE coast.

What do you all think about this?

http://www.mrctv.org/videos/joe-bastardi-destroys-al-gores-recent-comments-about-super-storm-sandy

Let's not make this a political discussion.  I find weather very interesting and I'm trying to learn.

Climate has def changed.  Humans have def impacted this change.  It will continue until a massive natural disaster eliminates 80% of the population.  

I'm fairly confident Adirondackers will survive and think it will be quite interesting moving forward!  

I have serious hunting, gathering and gardening skills!  

As well as fishing and fire building skills.  

As well as bullshit skills

well that cuts it!  You are offically not welcome in my tribe!  When the time comes, you cross the blueline at your own peril!!  

 

Wouldn't have it any other way

fooz is gonna get sick nasty this year

Bastardi is a notorious AGW skeptic and not at all respected in climatology circles.  He's sort of a clown.  

That said, so is Al Gore.  My understanding is that when it comes to the frequency and intensity of hurricanes there is no link to the warming earth - at least there is no consensus of such a link among climatologists.  But it's simply a fact that the earth is warming and there is a rock solid consensus that man has a hand in it.  And also not to be forgotten when it comes to hurricanes and AGW, the earth's oceans have risen about a foot in the last 150 years and that can make a big difference when it comes to the effects of a storm surge.  Now one foot may not seem like a lot when you're talking about a storm surge of 13 or 14 feet but it could very possibly be that last foot that does all the damage, that breaches the levy, that floods the subway or utility sub-station.  So there is a very possible interplay between AGW and the effects of hurricanes due to rising sea levels and they are forecasted to continue to rise, perhaps by as much as two more feet by the end of this century.  But there is (again, as I understand it) absolutely no link between a warming earth and the number or intensity of hurricanes.  The Today show ran a story this morning suggesting that there is such a link.  No data, no climatological analysis.  Just Harry Smith and a lot of silly innuendo.  Fear and hyperbole sell; most people don't care about complexity or nuance, even if they could understand it. Tthe average person has an IQ of 100.  'Nuff said.

Politics have wrecked this issue for now.  The science is so far ahead of the political discussion.  

The oceans are warmer.  Hurricanes strengthen over warm water.  Ice packs melting = rising seas levels.  

I’ve already accepted the effects of climate change.  For me, shorter ski season but a longer bike season, plus a longer grow season…

At some point (hopefully less than 10 years), me and pants will be wintering in Rosland, BC w/ my bro Riley!!   But we’ll 4sure come back for summers/fall in the Adirondacks!

ScottyJack wrote

The oceans are warmer.  Hurricanes strengthen over warm water.  

Again, there's no connection between warmer oceans and increased frequency or intensity of hurricanes.  I know you'll hear that from time to time but there is no consensus among climatologists and since I can't do the science myself I have to go with the consensus.  I was listening to a NOAA climatologist talk about this this summer and he said the vast majority of climatologists don't make that link because A)  It hasn't been borne out in the data (Hurricane #s aren't up and either are average strengths) and B) a few degrees of warming in the oceans isn't enough to trigger more hurricanes - that's just not the way it works as he explained it.

ScottyJack wrote

Ice packs melting = rising seas levels.

The rising oceans I believe has more to do with the thermal expansion of water than melting ice caps.  The ice cap in the North pole is shrinking but the ice in the South pole is actually expanding.  Lot of moving parts here.  Don't try to make it sound simple.  You end up sounding as silly as the knee-jerk deniers.

The oceans are warmer.  Hurricanes strengthen over warm water.

Noah John wrote

ScottyJack wrote

The oceans are warmer.  Hurricanes strengthen over warm water.  

   I was listening to a NOAA climatologist talk about this this summer and he said the vast majority of climatologists don't make that link because A)  It hasn't been borne out in the data (Hurricane #s aren't up and either are average strengths) and B) a few degrees of warming in the oceans isn't enough to trigger more hurricanes - that's just not the way it works as he explained it.

 

WOW--you guys sure know how to party up there  

Are U sure U don't want to drive to WV for some skiing?????

ScottyJack wrote

The oceans are warmer.  Hurricanes strengthen over warm water.

Yeah - so what?  You got any data that hurricanes are more numerous or stronger?  Don't even bother looking for them because they don't exist.  And most climatologists disagree that AGW is leading to more or stronger hurricanes.  Is that what you're trying to say?  Or are you just going to repeat what every third grader knows about hurricanes as if it's even interesting?

BTW, 2 + 2 = 4.  And the moon is about 240,000 miles from the earth.  And a water molecule consists of two hydrogen atoms and one oxygen atom.  None of this has anything to do with the topic but neither does your statement.

your're wrong, I'm right!  

ScottyJack wrote

The majority of climatolgists are wrong, I'm right!  

FIFY

I follow Bastardi on Twitter (in season) because he is one of the few weatherguys with the stones to call things medium and long range. I accept that he could be wrong that far out (like 7-10 days) but I still want to know if there is a possibility of a storm. It helps me "angle" for flexibility at work.

The downside of Bastardi is his relentless political axe grinding. He is first a political operative and a weather guy second.  (Hey at least he's part weather guy).  For that reason I unfollow him over the summer to give myself a break from the constant propaganda.  



He's always saying the you can't use specific weather events as evidence of warming, but then will cite "evidence" like this is the coolest this or that has been in X years.

It's hard to keep it apolitical when Bastardi is in the picture, and I appreciate the effort to do so here.  Noah's first post was spot on in my opinion.

My thing on warming is that it doesn't really matter if it's real or not. With most of the stuff you'd do to combat it, like burning less coal, has other benefits.  The adks are hammered by midwestern coal burning and i don't think anyone really disputes that.

I think it's also beyond argument that humans damage the environment more than all the other species combined. It's all a matter of cost. If you stop the damage 100% then the economy grinds to a halt. We got to find a balance, if we want be here long term.

To some extent it's natural for man to use his superior brain to exploit and destroy the earth. One big petry dish experiment.  Eventually man will get wiped out and the earth will find it's balance in a few hundred thousand years. Or maybe millions if the end is nuclear.

I never really cared too much about this stuff before I had a kid. Now you think... gee it will stink if her life is the pits because we trashed the place.

whod a thunk I would have become friend with an elitetest.  I cant even remember it is what you wrote but I judge things based on what I see around me.   2(global warming higher water levels)+2(global warming higher temperatures)=4(larger  weather events hurricanes).  

Blah

Noah John wrote

FIFY

FIFY I don't get that? If warm water has nothing to do w/ hurricane strength, then why every time a hurricane is heading our way do the weather guys say it will strengthen as it moves over the warm waters and increase into a cat whatever... Every single hurricane I've heard them say this. Every single time. As in all the times....

Bill Maher says suck on this Noah

Noah John wrote

You got any data that hurricanes are more numerous or stronger?  Don't even bother looking for them because they don't exist.  

Don't exist, really??  Bother looking for them, really..  I don't have to look too far just over to WF for the massive rain storm on 4/21/12 which created 2B or not 2B.  Followed up by Ifuckingrene.  yeah it was real hard to find an example last August when I was waist deep in my neighbors basements for a month pumping them out...