Short Term Winter Weather 2011-12

From Lionel at FIS. He tends to be very VT and Whiteface focused so keep that in mind:

UPDATE at 1PM on JANUARY 1st 2012:

"Well right now I’m pretty happy about what the next 48 hours are going to bring. As noted above, as a low pressure system moves across the north a strong cold front will push through. Some mixed precip and rain will be on the front end. By around midnight tonight temps will have fallen to below freezing and be about -8c at elevation. With the location of the low a southwest flow will develop. These patterns do a great job of sucking up lake moisture and streaming it into the ADK (like it often just shoots right at whiteface) and the Greens. Of course that’s good when combined with cold temps and orographic lift. Starting maybe 6-8 am tomorrow we should some great dendritic growth with the flakes. All up and down the ADK and Greens the system should run for at least the following 24 hours. Overall when the event winds down on tuesday night…or there abouts…I’m pretty certain somebody is getting 8+ of blower…or more if banding sets up."

And NWS ALB is calling for a strong lake effect band to set up after the frontal passage. Not often LE is strong enough to trigger a Lake Effect Snow Advisory (not as good as a LE Snow Warning) for that far inland.

Snowridge could get up to 20+", the LES Machine is gearing up!

Tonight: Windy. Rain showers early will change over to snow showers overnight. Low 26F. Winds SW at 20 to 30 mph. Chance of precip 80%. Snow accumulating 1 to 3 inches. Winds could occasionally gust over 40 mph.

Tomorrow: Windy. Snow in the morning will transition to snow showers and a few heavier snow squalls in the afternoon. High 27F. Winds WSW at 20 to 30 mph. 5 to 8 inches of snow expected. Winds could occasionally gust over 40 mph.

Tomorrow night: Snow showers and some heavier snow squalls early will give way to a steadier snow overnight. Low 3F. Winds NW at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of snow 90%. 8 to 12 inches of snow expected.

Tuesday: Occasional snow showers. Quite windy. High 4F. Winds NW at 20 to 30 mph. Chance of snow 90%. Snow accumulating 1 to 2 inches. Heavier amounts in persistent snowbands

Does anyone live up that way? I've been there once, the day after a 36" dump. They've got only 500ft of vert, but you get it all at once, short lift rides too. The chair skier's right wasn't open when I was there. I like the place, had a great time. That event made it to Mad River, they weren't open yet, they got a foot, http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/trip-reports/09-10/vtah-iii-the-most-unreliable-great-snow-on-earth/ I love this TR, there's some really cool photos in it, the video is cool too, day before opening 2009/2010 season.

Greek is supposed to benefit a couple inches, colder temps will help, they lost a lot of their "snow" over the weekend. The kids were puddle skimming at the lift today.

I think Gore can get a surprising 4-6 inches of snow tonight....or I can be dreaming.

Snow Ridge is now calling for 14-24" this afternoon into tonight. And it has been nuking all morning.

Debating going with MC2 tomorrow, except lifts don't spin until Wednesday. I have to work on Wednesday.

Go!

For me Snow Ridge's small vert is no reason to bypass significant quantities of natural snow.  From what I know about the hill the full vert is usable, and personally I RARELY ski more than 500 feet without a break. (Advantage TELE: I know I can have fun on 500 feet.)

EDIT: Cornhead that IS an amazing FIS TR and video. Yowza. I had never seen that episode.

Haha I want to. It's a hell of a drive though. Matt would Have to take off of work to do it. And all his gear is up in North Creek.

I may be going but waiting to see if they get the 2ft as any natural base was lost and the fun stuff needs a couple ft

They have got about 5-6 so far

I mean, it's not THAT far.  And I am dying to ski some powder this year.  I need my fix.

looks like Gore getting some good snow now, telling u guys they can make out well tonight

I skied Gore today and it snowed up on the mountain the whole time I was there (9-2).  I got kinda heavy every now and then and they had guns blowing on a number of trails.  With the LES and cold weather predicted for this week it could be pretty good there in a few more days.

blah, never really got going and now the winds have shifted, bust :(

This was at the Sawyer mtn trailhead, between Indian Lake and Blue Mtn Lake around two today. Probably 6" on the ground. Bad thing about LES, is it's incredibly localized.

whiteface claims they got 5 inches yday....

NorEaster ... skeptical?

This is in the no mans land between long term and short term, and still to far out for it's own storm thread...

From NWS ALB:

"By the weekend...a rather diffuse frontal boundary is expected near the region with several ensemble members suggesting this boundary should remain over western and central ny.

Meanwhile...the upper trough becomes more amplified over noam as short wave energy tracks along the lee side of the rockies. this will a key player for the potential east coast storm later in the weekend.

The ecmwf and canadian attempt to phase this aforementioned short wave with the digging upper trough over the eastern u.s. for the surface cyclone to track up along the coastline. the gfs does not allow any phasing and takes this wave off the mid atlantic coast.

The previous run of the dgex is slower but it too does suggest the potential for an east coast event. ensembles are not too much help either with a rather high standard deviations. for now...we will place low chances and monitor trends closely for this weekend."

right now storm on Sunday looks possible but given the winter so far, I am skeptical.  On whiteface, I am sure they got 5 inches yday but given the high winds today, I bet its no where to be seen.

Sorry to be a downer but I just checked adkweathersite.com and Darin is calling for another rain event in the middle of next week and calling for it emphatically. On the upside he is giving hope to a colder 2nd half of January with at least the cold air in place to potentially get us some of the white stuff. keep the fingers crossed.

yes, next week could be a big rain storm....but im not ready to lock anything in over a week away.

From NWS ALBANY tonight:

Long term: sunday night through thursday

It appears the quiet weather will not last through the entire extended period ... as most sources of medium range guidance indicate a potential low emerging from the gulf coast states and tracking northeastward through the appalachians and mid atlantic states.

There are considerable timing differences but there is at least loose consensus for a storm track just south and east of the area but temps appear to be too warm for snow in the valleys based on a developing mild southeast flow ahead of the storm. Still way too early to pinpoint any details...but will broadbrush chance pops from late wednesday through thursday to account for the large spread in timing even though the system appears to be a fast mover.

Will preliminarily mention mainly rain in the valleys...with rain/snow in the higher elevations. this system is still highly subject to change based on that it is forecast towards the end of the long term period.

Models are coming into agreement for a gully washer for the middle of next week..It's still early things can change. What a disgusting winter..

WTF

There, I feel better..i think