Skiing and Risk

Dougski wrote

Skiing is a dangerous sport.

No, statistically it is not. In 2012, according to NSAA figures, there were 54 ski/snowboard deaths, out of 9.8 million participants, for 5.5 deaths per 1 millions participants. So about 1/2 a death per 100,000.

So I'm not trying to make this a gun post, but in 2013 there were over 11,000 homicides by firearm in the U.S. With a population around 315 million that year that works out to about 3.5 gun homicides per 100,000 people in the U.S.

Your post is terribly alarmist, not to mention incorrect and ridiculous.

For three people to die at one relatively small ski area in one year, is either a statistical anomaly or something else. It's worth looking into to understand which.

I've missed work due to injuries only twice in my life. Both times were injuries from skiing. So I'd say skiing is a dangerous sport.

campgottagopee wrote

I've missed work due to injuries only twice in my life. Both times were injuries from skiing. So I'd say skiing is a dangerous sport.

American's edumacational system ladies and gentlemen.

Statistics. Half the people in Virgil don't understand them, and the other 75% don't believe them.

Don't worry dude.. I understand what you were saying but there's more to it than stats.

Skiing is a dangerous sport. Tell me again it isn't?

campgottagopee wrote

Don't worry dude.. I understand what you were saying but there's more to it than stats.

Skiing is a dangerous sport. Tell me again it isn't?

It isn't. Little kids routinely negotiate their way down steep terrain. People with all kinds of disabilities can ski and some quite well. There are much much much more dangerous activities that people engage in every day.

Skiing statistically is not a dangerous sport. I'm not making it up. Personal perception doesn't replace math and science.

Camp, you're a hunter. Tell me - is hunting a dangerous sport?

Damn right it is!

 We're walking around with loaded guns.

Stats be damned!

billyymc wrote

campgottagopee wrote

Don't worry dude.. I understand what you were saying but there's more to it than stats.

Skiing is a dangerous sport. Tell me again it isn't?

It isn't. Little kids routinely negotiate their way down steep terrain. People with all kinds of disabilities can ski and some quite well. There are much much much more dangerous activities that people engage in every day.

Skiing statistically is not a dangerous sport. I'm not making it up. Personal perception doesn't replace math and science.

And stats don't replace reality.

The reality is that skiing is a dangerous sport

billyymc wrote

Camp, you're a hunter. Tell me - is hunting a dangerous sport?

This is actually a good analog. Even though it’s statistically safe, there are obvious dangers involved and the consequences of an accident can be extreme. Numbers don’t tell the whole story. As is often the case, it’s possible that you’re both right.

And of course, if it’s somebody close to you, it changes things considerably.

Brownski wrote

  As is often the case, it’s possible that you’re both right.
 

This is the inTraWebZ where only one person can be right!!  

Brownski wrote

billyymc wrote

Camp, you're a hunter. Tell me - is hunting a dangerous sport?

This is actually a good analog. Even though it’s statistically safe, there are obvious dangers involved and the consequences of an accident can be extreme. Numbers don’t tell the whole story. As is often the case, it’s possible that you’re both right.

And of course, if it’s somebody close to you, it changes things considerably.

Anything can be dangerous for a single person if they make certain choices. Statistically for the skiing population it's a safe sport. An individual can make it even safer by understanding where the risks are and managing them. The post by Dougski made it sound like skiing is so dangerous that nobody should do it. I know that wasn't his intent. Statistics play an important part in understanding risk. The most important actually. It's why people can make a lot of money calculating and managing risk.

Camp - where are the risks in hunting? What's the biggest danger a hunter encounters in the field?

campgottagopee wrote

Don't worry dude.. I understand what you were saying but there's more to it than stats.

Skiing is a dangerous sport. Tell me again it isn't?

In WWII they decided to look at all the places bullets hit fighter planes by mapping all the hits on planes that made it back and putting armor on the planes where the most hits happen..   Statistics...

But they didn't take into account that that since the planes made it back those places weren't actually fateful...
And the places that they didn't see the holes were the issue because thats what crashed the plane...

dmc_hunter wrote

campgottagopee wrote

Don't worry dude.. I understand what you were saying but there's more to it than stats.

Skiing is a dangerous sport. Tell me again it isn't?

In WWII they decided to look at all the places bullets hit fighter planes by mapping all the hits on planes that made it back and putting armor on the planes where the most hits happen..   Statistics...

But they didn't take into account that that since the planes made it back those places weren't actually fateful...
And the places that they didn't see the holes were the issue because thats what crashed the plane...

Actually the story is that they put the armor in the places where there were NOT bullet holes. The idea is credited to Hungarian mathematician named Abraham Wald. Statistics...

You are correct. However skiing more dangerous than staying at home, walking down the street, or driving a car. However its not necessary in life to ski, while most of us consider it necessary to drive and walk around. So I should have said that skiing is an activity that exposes one to unnecessary risk and danger.

I'd also argue that skiing is especially dangerous if you ski recklessly, as is driving recklessly. Most of us don't ski recklessly, as most of us don't drive recklessly. But we have to drive. We don't have to ski.

Doug - I'm not going to look up the stats again. They're out there easy to find.But I am pretty sure that statistically driving is more likely to result in injury and/or death than is skiing. And crossing the street may be too. Obviously it would depend on where you're crossing the street.

And your point is part of what I was trying to get at - we can manage our own level of risk to some degree. Doing anything recklessly increases our risk. But we have to accurately understand risk to manage it. IMO your post way overstated the risks of skiing...most of those things you labelled as risks can be almost completely mitigated by skiing aware and not skiing recklessly. That doesn't mean skiing slow or boring.

It's easy to not understand risk statistically. It can also be easy to overlook risk in real life even when we should know better. This past weekend I kayaked alone upstream on the Otselic River from Dorchester Lake. As I got farther upstream and the current got stronger I had to do some eddy hopping and current surfing to be able to work farther and farther upstream. It was fun and didn't seem too risky until I put my hand in the water and was unable to keep it in for even 30 seconds because it was painfully cold snowmelt water. At that point I turned around and headed back. If I'd gone over I would have been incapacitated in less than a minute, no question.

So I didn't do a good job of evaluating the risk from a consequences standpoint. Because of that I paddled water that was harder than I should have given the consequences of a capsize. Flat calm water should have been my limit that day. I misjudged because I ignored the consequences and focused on the probability of flipping was relatively low.

If any business has an accident level that is statistically out of the norm they have a responsibility to their employees and their customers to understand if there is a reason, or if it's just an unfortunate statistical aberration.

Brownski wrote

billyymc wrote

Camp, you're a hunter. Tell me - is hunting a dangerous sport?

Anything can be dangerous for a single person if they make certain choices. Statistically for the skiing population it's a safe sport. An individual can make it even safer by understanding where the risks are and managing them. The post by Dougski made it sound like skiing is so dangerous that nobody should do it. I know that wasn't his intent. Statistics play an important part in understanding risk. The most important actually. It's why people can make a lot of money calculating and managing risk.

Camp - where are the risks in hunting? What's the biggest danger a hunter encounters in the field?

Hunting has similar dangers to skiing in terms of user error.  Guns become unsafe when not maintained or handled properly.  Tree stands become unsafe when not maintained.  People fall out of tree stands when not using safety equipment properly, if at all.  Similar to skiing where a person needs to maintain and know their equipment and learn the proper way to use the tools they have (helmet, knowing the conditions, skis sharp and not falling apart, proper sizing etc)

I’m very comfortable with risk evaluation and things that I’ve done make a lot of people uncomfortable but were completely fine for myself.

I’m not comfortable skiing in close proximity with large numbers of other people. To me that is unnecessarily risky. I can control my own decisions, back country travel routes, line choice etc. but I can’t control the behavior of others. That shit is scary af.

Skiing at a place like Hunter on a busy weekend? Nope, that line doesn’t go imo.

billyymc wrote

dmc_hunter wrote

campgottagopee wrote

Don't worry dude.. I understand what you were saying but there's more to it than stats.

Skiing is a dangerous sport. Tell me again it isn't?

In WWII they decided to look at all the places bullets hit fighter planes by mapping all the hits on planes that made it back and putting armor on the planes where the most hits happen..   Statistics...

But they didn't take into account that that since the planes made it back those places weren't actually fateful...
And the places that they didn't see the holes were the issue because thats what crashed the plane...

Actually the story is that they put the armor in the places where there were NOT bullet holes. The idea is credited to Hungarian mathematician named Abraham Wald. Statistics...

I was high when I posted that..  thanks for clearing it up.

billyymc wrote

Actually the story is that they put the armor in the places where there were NOT bullet holes.

I know it is OT but can you give me more detail on this? Why?

louie.mirags wrote

People fall out of tree stands

We have a winner! Tree stand falls are by FAR the biggest risk in the field for hunters.

RA - I agree that often risks from others around can be the most difficult to mitigate. But there are crowds at many ski areas. Hunter experienced an statistically unlikely level of deaths. I don't know - if I ran the place I'd want to bring in some ski safety experts for an analysis and understanding of those events. Perhaps they were just the result of reckless skiing on crowded slopes resulting in unfortunate accidents. Even if that were the case I'd want to understand it, as well as understand if there were things that could be done in the future to reduce the probability of further accidents.