Snow Speculation: 1/03/15

Looked at the long range, not looking good, even some more rain Sunday, but there is hope in the forecast for some snow on the 3rd. Lets hope, pray, or even make a sacrifice - what ever your religion or superstition suggests.

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huh? if new jersey gets r**n you hope everywhere does?  You do not belong on this forum

hmm maybe I read that wrong and you meant you hope NJ gets nothing if no snow.  Either way... hope for POW and leave it at that.     last year we were able to ski the trees at creek on bear so why not expect snow?

louie.mirags wrote

huh? if new jersey gets r**n you hope everywhere does?  You do not belong on this forum

I 2nd that

Looked again today, still 3" of snow predicted for the third with a little snow expected tomorrow. We should be in the deep freeze mid week next week. Winter will return.

looks like rain or a mix at best for next weekend

NorEaster27 wrote

looks like rain or a mix at best for next weekend

You sound like JasonWX

GULLY WASHERS FOR EVERYONE!!!    

snoloco wrote

GULLY WASHERS FOR EVERYONE!!!

Don't even joke about such things.

i'm with peetex. we need to stay positive. a little luck wouldn't hurt

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LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODELS THEN START TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH REGARDS TO A POTENTIAL STORM. THERE ARE A WIDE RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS WITH LARGE SPREAD IN TERMS OF STORM TRACK AND THE
EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE
A DEEPENING CYCLONE TRACKING WEST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX TO RAIN
SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THE OTHER END OF THE
ENVELOPE WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE AND WEAKER SURFACE CYCLONE
TRACKING EASTWARD OFF THE COAST FROM THE CAROLINAS WITH BARELY ANY
QPF IN OUR REGION AND COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THE GFS AND GEFS ARE
SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WITH A STRONGER RIDGE
BUILDING NEAR CUBA...WHILE THE ECMWF IS INDICATING MORE OF A
NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE WITH COLDER AIR WINNING OUT AND A WEAKER
RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF FLORIDA.

There is still something there in the models, and also something popping up for Tue the 6th.
Both small events, but it looks like the start of the 1 to 3" every couple of nights build up to a return to the trees.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
424 PM EST MON DEC 29 2014

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE THEN BEGINS TO SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS AND DEVELOPS A STORM SYSTEM THAT MAY OR MAY NOT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM
SYSTEM. LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY INFLUENCE FROM THE
POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER TRACKING WEST OF THE
REGION...WITH A WINTRY MIX OR RAIN/SNOW SCENARIO AND A PERIOD OF
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
PHASE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE 12Z GGEM ALSO SHOWS A
SIMILAR SCENARIO AS WELL WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY FURTHER WESTWARD
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.

The 6 day Euro has it going a bit west too...but not as far...positive thoughts everyone...if this plays out Snow Ridge could get creamed Monday and Tuesday...100 miles east and I'll be at Gore Sunday (I'll probably be there anyway)

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
1 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM
EST FRIDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

* TIMING...LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 15 INCHES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH AN
  ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
  NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 FEET IN THE MOST
  PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

Schwiiing!

... Something for everyone..