Snowmaking in an El Niño season

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/wilmington-ny/12997/december-weather/2146430

This is looking pretty ugly for the next 10 days

My thinking is don't even try to expand terrian on the lower mountain until more favorable temps on Dec 17

Blast the crap out if the upper mt even the Summit.  Once it gets cold the lower can be covered quickly

WF had the blessing of altitude which is not being taken advantage of and the curse of a fairly low base around 1100 feet.  Don't waste snowmaking hours down low go for it up top.

Other Mts have different issues and this forecast is going make things really dicey in the Cats and south.  Sno demands 100% by 12/25. Mountian Creek will be lucky to just open by then this year.

You are correct in that Whiteface should try and expand terrain to the summit and get more on LWF open.  Maybe encourage gondola downloading to control trail crowding on the lower mountain.

I'm not sure if Hunter will be able to open next weekend.  It's possible, but not guaranteed.  I'm not expecting Mountain Creek to open until mid January at this rate.  There may even be a chance of them not opening at all, although it isn't likely.

As a one time snow maker I totally agree. You have to think long term. They should do what they can up high and go for broke at lower altitudes when they get the temps, hopefully in time for Christmas . There's no point running the guns if its gonna melt before you can capitalize on it

like i said earlier....there will not be meaningful snowmaking temps till 19/20th  + or -

The state run areas should respect our tax money...

I bet they start their year with an operating budget for each department. Snowmaking will get a budget, if they blow it now making snow in bad weather, it's gone and there is nothing left when needed later. Wait till the ground is frozen before making the big commitments.

ORDA snowmaking budgets are moving targets tied to skier visits.

It's a bit of a double edged swords as bad seasons have lower budgets.

Harvey wrote

ORDA snowmaking budgets are moving targets tied to skier visits.

It's a bit of a double edged swords as bad seasons have lower budgets.

Certainly, if they are having a bad year revenue wise - all departments take a hair cut. Nothing new there.
Just the way business operates. But as you say, if they can't draw people in they also can't make snow and snow in peoples yards is what will get them skiing, with the current weather they are still playing tennis (well maybe not tennis - but certainly not thinking skiing no matter how much snow is made at the resort). I have to say that if the forecast holds than this is certainly one of the poorest starts in a long time.

JasonWx wrote

like i said earlier....there will not be meaningful snowmaking temps till 19/20th  + or -

The state run areas should respect our tax money...

14 degrees overnight Dec 17 going into the 18th with highs just over freezing should be ok to start the lower mt blowing but until then pound up high when you can

I have to agree with your save the tax payers comment on Belleryre blowing when they have little hope of keeping that snow thru the warm next couple weeks.  Keep the powder dry for when you can actually use it.

I keep notes on my skis days so I went back and looked at them and this season us shaping up like 2006-07 which as also an El Niño.  That year we started slow and WF almost had to close in early January.  Then it nuked snow in Febuary and we had an epic spring.

In 06-07, Mountain Creek was able to pull an opening together for Christmas, but then had to close down for much of January, then reopened.  Was a half length season for them.  I remember I skied Killington for the first time that year, and Skyeship Base was closed, even after MLK Weekend.  Was 11-12 and El Nino year?  If it was, then an El Nino typically means a bad season.

El Nino's themselves are very boom and bust. Like Coach pointed out with the 2006-07 season the beginning of it was a near total bust into January. But by late Jan and into early February things dramatically changed.

El Ninos typically present warmer temperatures for the northeast due to the heavy shift in the jet stream which is the bust part of them for us. But they also tend to bring a steady pattern of moisture from cross country systems into play, which can (as it was in 2007) super charge nor'easters that head up the coast. Needless to say that was truly a year to remember, Whiteface was just hammered from February all the way til early April.

And to answer sno's question, 11-12 was a weak La Nina, so what happened there was we had mostly typical temperatures (though I remember March being pretty warm) but a massive lack of moisture which killed us snow fall wise. Couple that with the usual thaws we normally get and it killed the mountains.

Coach Z wrote

I keep notes on my skis days so I went back and looked at them and this season us shaping up like 2006-07 which as also an El Niño.  That year we started slow and WF almost had to close in early January.  Then it nuked snow in Febuary and we had an epic spring.

the greatest valentine storm in the history of WF!  that was an epic four days of wind and pow and untracked and awesome music and people dancing on tables and the greatest of the great great fun off the charts!

then in March it was St Powder Day!  2007 was awesome.  

The point is while it looks bleak at the moment a strong El Niño eventually is great for WF and other northern and high elevation resorts.  If you are south and low it's just warm and wet.  

It will get better.  Bastardi is talking of a pattern change and some storms later this month.

Pound the upper Mt now so we have base when the storms come.

Skiing on crappy manmade shit sucks anyway. NVT was off the hook late season even in April

Cool tunes

2:54 woulda killed a normal man

Hunter and Windham aren't even open yet and it isn't looking good for this weekend.  They may get open for the 19th.  I'm not even thinking about Mountain Creek yet.  I don't expect to ski there till I get back from Steamboat at least.   There may be a possibility of them not opening at all.

As much as I'm chomping on the bit to get this season started, I'm going to wait 2 or 3 more weeks and hope a storm comes through. I really don't want to start the season on one shiny run.

Hunter made snow last night, so they're trying to open this weekend.  Not sure if it will last through the warm weather through the rest of the week.  Belleayre is at an advantage because they opened last weekend, but I'm not sure if they made any snow since, or how well it will hold on.  Windham is doing another hike park this weekend, and will not be opening for real.

My guess is that Belleayre reopens their WROD.  Windham will not open, except for the hike park, and Hunter will pull off a WROD, but will probably suck.  My dad and I are going to Mount Snow because our Hunter passes are valid there until 12/18 due to Hunter not being open.  I imagine that they'll extend that period if Hunter still can't open by 12/18.

Realistically, looking at forecast guidance, it looks like it's another 8-10 days until we get to a more seasonable pattern for December(which will likely still be above normal, but not terribly so). That gives them 7-10 days to get a product out on the mountains for the Christmas break crowds. What can WF and Gore realistically get open in that timeframe?

For Whiteface, I'd guess it's a refresher on the Excelsior to U/L Valley route plus Approach to Mtn. Run, some of the greens on Kids Kampus, and maybe Parrons/Follies off the summit, but probably not much more than that unless we get lucky and get dumped on somewhere in that period. Does that seem like a reasonable guess? Not sure what their snowmaking capacity really is compared to my home turf of Sunday River which I know can go balls to the wall when they want to and have the temps.

They have blown some this week up high.

The night of the 15th forward looks good temp wise

WF can get a lot open fast given a solid 10 day and night block of snow making before Chirstmas.  My guess would be you would see pretty much the whole lower mt, bears den, Victoria which they were blowing this week I heard, mt run, thruway, Drapers with the Summit coming on before New Years.  There are some races they need to get ready for plus the kids need to train.  

We are going to way better than most other Mts for the Holidays

Coach Z wrote

 
We are going to way better than most other Mts for the Holidays

Cool. So you're saying you'll be the least shitty of the shitty.