Spring is closer than you think

looks like our winter might take a holiday. long range does not look encouraging. it's been a great run, so no long faces..
that said, anyone going out west might be in luck..they're back in the game..

Now I know where you get your prognosticating prowess....Punxsutawney Phil.

I'm going with the Hinterlandian groundhog, Wiarton Willie. Sources on the inside say that it was impossible to find the albino rodent in the snowstorm on the official day, so they postponed the prognostication until the next day. Shouldn't count, in my books.

JasonWx wrote

that said, anyone going out west might be in luck..they're back in the game..

Round two - March 13-19. I'm hoping it will make up for the lack of schussin' this year.

I am not looking that far ahead, but the MRF still is showing cold air and a few clippers through next weekend.  It is showing a good warm up at that point but it is still a long way off and conditions right now are fantastic.  The snow that fell Monday night at Gore, wasn't a whole lot but it was of a great consistency to cover exposed base in the woods.  46er looks skiable!  So without any above freezing temps for the next week and a half, let's enjoy winter here and now and ignore those doomsday prognosticating rodents, calling for an early spring.

Maybe some of this will extend to McCaully and w adks

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
THURSDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
THURSDAY.

* LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON...LEWIS...AND OSWEGO COUNTIES...WITH THE
  GREATEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND PORTIONS OF
  OSWEGO COUNTY.

* TIMING...THROUGH THURSDAY. A BAND OVER SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY
  THIS EVENING WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL INTO OSWEGO
  COUNTY OVERNIGHT...THEN LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL ON THURSDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOWFALL RATES OF 3 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE
  HEAVIEST BANDS. STORM TOTALS OF ONE TO TWO FEET IN THE MOST
  PERSISTENT SNOWS.

CONTENTS DELETED

Jason .. ahead of the curve as usual.

Darrin on Adirondack Weather Site also made the call yesterday:

http://www.adirondackweathersite.com/2011/02/major-weather-pattern-shift-coming-our.html

areas up north next week will be flirting with the 50's ..and some of us in the low country  might see 60..this should be short lived.

I am going to resist jumping on the bandwagon just yet...From what I see GFS/MRF  Flirting with 40 at Gore next Thursday and Friday but cooler and windy for the weekend of the 19th.  We can't loose that great snowpack in the woods before Jason gets to ski Gore

Glad I got the snow off the house. With the ice dams on the eaves, any massive melt may have flooded the house.

if the trees aren't in, no biggie..i ski volkl 6 stars on the groomers..so i'm all smiles making gs turns..

What length are the 6 stars?  I love those skis.  I'll trade you for my 154 Atomics for the woods...maybe I can resurrect my Allstars, but I doubt it.  Duck T.R., I may need to borrow your skis when Jason comes up.  If I have to cruise I am all set, but...

JasonWx wrote

areas up north next week will be flirting with the 50's ..and some of us in the low country  might see 60..this should be short lived.

Hey Jason ... can you elaborate on the "short lived" part?

The warm weather will last about 3-4 days , from Wed to Saturday. Then turn colder and hopefully more active.

Suds, My 6 stars are 168. A bit short , when i got them i was in a bar league that ran slalom..My other skis are Dynastar 8000.

I see 3-4 days on the GFS with warm up, but no real rain until Saturday the 20th when a cold front right behind it blows in. We'll see how that plays out... it could be a terrible storm with rain and little snow on the backside, or it could be not so bad with a cold front just refreezing the surfaces after a warm up. Rain is the x-factor of this whole thing, and we'll see how it plays out in the end.

Jason, what are your thoughts about the frontal passage on Friday?  The folks at American WX forums seem to think we could have an ugly, damaging, high wind situation with convection, etc.

very warm before the front. yes high winds and falling temps post frontal. as of now I don't anticipate any convection. but stupid and strange things happen in the mountains. it's only monday so a lot of time for things to change

SLK has been reporting good snow tonight, not sure if its the wind but a few hrs now of moderate snow.

Thanks Jason.  I'll be honest, I prefer gentle, snowy frontal passages...

Looks like a pretty powerful storm...hopefully those winds don't get mixed down to the surface.  
Last thing anybody likes is power outages.