Once again, Adk Weather Site less bullish on snow prospects than FIS. "Marginally colder air" and "significant snowfall (6+ inches) unlikely." Darrin's track record has been quite accurate this winter.
From NWS Albany at 4:30 pm, feel free to skip to summary in BOLD at the end:
Short term /wednesday night through friday/...
Tt looks as if enough cold air will be in place courtesy of high pressure arced over eastern canada. the high looks to force the upper level feature of the storm to track northeast instead of north which will likely pinched off the warm air from ever reaching us at the surface.
Aloft...the challenge is that while initially a southerly flow looks to warm these levels up...the upper air low tracks southward and with time...cooling the column down aloft as well.
All this makes for a continued challenge forecast. what we do know at this this point is that precipitation looks to arrive around midnight wednesday into thursday (a little earlier southwest of albany and a little past midnight to the northeast of albany).
Precipitation amounts look to range around around half an inch in valley areas...closer to three quarters of an inch across some of the elevated terrain.
Precipitation types still remain somewhat uncertain. the 12z nam and ecmwf soundings continue to indicate mostly frozen precipitation would fall from albany northward...and a wintery mix further south transitioning to a cold rain.
The gfs is somewhat warmer...indicating the only place precipitation remains all frozen before it tapers to drizzle later on thursday...would be well north of albany while the areas around the capital district would see a winter mix transitioning to a cold rain...and mostly rain south.
For now...we followed a blend of the gfs and nam models and came up with a solution probably still leaning slightly with the warmer gfs since the trend this winter has been for systems to be warmer (unlike last year when they were colder).
Also...the high pressure is not in the perfect position to completely block colder air from getting in (at least aloft). we also went with a met/mav blend trending a touch more with the colder met output.
This storm system will not phase with our area in the middle of two areas of low pressure. models are in good agreement on the track of the southern steam system which looks to be much closer to our region tracking over or near the eastern tip of long island early thursday afternoon while the northern stream system drifts from the central great lakes towards the eastern great lakes.
When it is said and done late thursday expect sloppy sleet and snow accumulations of 1-4 inches in many valley areas...with the mid hudson valley and lower litchfield looking at a coating to an inch. across the higher terrain especially north of albany...4-7 inches of snow mixed with a little sleet looks to be a good bet from this
"You just need to go at that shit wide open, hang on, and own it." —Camp
I think it's finally going to snow. Yesterday @ Gore it was sunny. Today, the sun tried and tried to emerge but dark, and then even darker clouds ,roiling up and gusting wind, completely blocked the sun. They were very dark and threatening by day's end. It simply felt and looked like winter storm is approaching. There'll be enough cold from the northwest to make it snow this time.
This is going to be a tough one...and you can look at all the different weather models, but this one will be up in the air until it happens. The good news is that is is definitely a change in the weather pattern. It's almost playing out exactly like the winter of 2006/2007. Winter really began Martin Luther King Day and the snow lasted until May, with three big storms. It is funny that with so many weather models, you can tell the forecasters who like snow and who don't on whether they lean toward a warmer solution or colder...Regardless I have Thursday and Friday available for powder days.
Proud to call Gore My Home Mountain
Covid stole what would have been my longest season ever!
I'll be back