Storm Speculation: 1/28/15

Slim to none...
How will the aircraft get to BTW?
If this goes down as foretasted. The NE corridor will be shut down

Good luck

JasonWx wrote

Slim to none...
How will the aircraft get to BTW?
If this goes down as foretasted. The NE corridor will be shut down

When was the last time a nor Easter delivered as forecast?

The plane from BTV is coming from PHL

Open snow is forecasting 4 to 8" for Stowe so it looks to be only a little snow for the Champlian Valley.  The bigger question Ito me is how much Philly will get.  at 20 feet above sea level it could be rain.  It's 48 degrees in Philly now.

Looks like this one will be good for the Catskills.  Hunter is predicted to get about 16 inches.  This looks like a coastal event, so the further north and east the better.  I'm thinking WF and Gore are too far north and inland to really take the brunt of this storm.

I'll take 6 inches on our trails.

PeeTex ssshhh!! keep it down
Im thinking the same thing

Doesn't matter if it delivers, the media hype machine is in motion.
It will be cold enough to snow in Phl..

rallysquirrel wrote

PeeTex ssshhh!! keep it down
Im thinking the same thing

I don't think you two will be the only ones on the Thunderbolt trail... The key is to think differently:

http://nebackcountry.blogspot.com/2013/01/trip-report-mohawk-trail-slides.html?m=1

mattchuck2 wrote

rallysquirrel wrote

PeeTex ssshhh!! keep it down
Im thinking the same thing

I don't think you two will be the only ones on the Thunderbolt trail... The key is to think differently:

http://nebackcountry.blogspot.com/2013/01/trip-report-mohawk-trail-slides.html?m=1

28 to 35 degree pitch on a slope that has avalanched in the past, unless I had been tracking what was on the base I would approach these very very cautiously.

The mass media weather generally way over blows these storms for ratings same goes for NWS who does not want to miss on the low side

Open snow tends to be very accurate IMO and does not over forecast

This morning they dropped thier snow totals to 1 to 2 for WF and 2 to 4 for Stowe.  Another dud Noreastern for us up North it looks like

As a recent transplant to Beacon, I had high hopes of being the first to ski our local mountain, the highest point south of the Catskills, during the 2014-2015 season. Alas, I am shredding overseas and will miss the "historic" nor'easter. So have at 'er boys: http://www.slackpacker.com/dutchess.html.

(FYI, if the storm underdelivers, I wouldn't recommend it as our base was basically zilch up until the flakes started falling today. The Thunderbolt will be epic but first tracks a must. There are also some backcountry lines in the Taconics accessible from somewhere on Route 2 in Petersburg though I haven't eyeballed them personally.)

PeeTex wrote

mattchuck2 wrote

rallysquirrel wrote

PeeTex ssshhh!! keep it down
Im thinking the same thing

I don't think you two will be the only ones on the Thunderbolt trail... The key is to think differently:

http://nebackcountry.blogspot.com/2013/01/trip-report-mohawk-trail-slides.html?m=1

28 to 35 degree pitch on a slope that has avalanched in the past, unless I had been tracking what was on the base I would approach these very very cautiously.

I wouldn't throw the towel in on the Greens..I think there will be some nice surprises..

Never discount the greens.

ML's summer piece on Dutchess:

http://nyskiblog.com/hiking-beacon-mountain-ny/

I'll take the 4-6" on the trails in North River. Skiing is sweet!

4-6" plus another shot or snow on Friday..

JasonWx wrote

 I think there will be some nice surprises..

Pretty sweet right here in CNY. Local forecasts were calling for only 2 to 4 by Wed AM, we already have 3 on the ground with steady snow. Could be a sneaky POW day tomorrow at GP  

I am planning on going to Hunter early Wednesday.  Hopefully the bridges will be open pre-am rush . . . .

We just had our forecast totals lowered from 2 feet to 2 inches.

Biggest Bust I have ever witnessed