...DETAILS OF TIMING OF ONSET AND EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION...AND TRACK OF SURFACE LOW AND WARM SECTOR STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION.
DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER FRONTOGENESIS INDICATED IN ALL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WHERE BEST BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP...AND WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING ...WILL DETERMINE WHAT AREAS WILL SEE MIXED PRECIPITATION OR A PERIOD OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING....
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION OR A PERIOD OF SNOW LOOK TO BE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS... CATSKILLS...HELDERBERGS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES. A SHIFT IN THE STORM TRACK AND THE WARM SECTOR COULD SHIFT THE PRECIPITATION TRANSITION ZONE...OR MAY SPARE SOME AREAS OF PRECIPITATION IF THE STORM ENDS UP GOING WELL NORTH OR WELL SOUTH SO STAY TUNED. THE UPPER SYSTEM DOES LOOK TO BE AN OPEN WAVE...SO PRECIPITATION DURATION AND INTENSITY LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUICK WITH MODERATE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
"You just need to go at that shit wide open, hang on, and own it." —Camp
first snow of the season is looking like a good bet, the NAM would give at least a few inches to the southern adirondacks, Euro and Ukie also pretty much agree with the possibility of an accumulating snowfall.