Storm Speculation: 10/27/11

That map is too vague, I need to know where I'm skiing next week!!!!!!

as of today it looks like a nice event...that said, also looking at big warm up later in the period...

JasonWx wrote

as of today it looks like a nice event...that said, also looking at big warm up later in the period...

So even if it melts afterward, I have something to scratch my itch for a weekend?

looks like a thurs/ friday...to early for amounts more tomorrow..

Sweet. I'm on vacation this week so I'll go any time, any where.

Steve..vacation in oct??

Hmm. Gotta be at work by 4 on Friday. I'll wait until Weds or so to see if I should be "sick"

If not, looks like I'll be doing some Dawn Patrol.

I'm not going to officially get my hopes up yet.

But I'm super excited anyway. As I mentioned to Harvey earlier, each tease like this brings us that much closer to the season.

NWS ALBANY:

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

...DETAILS OF TIMING OF ONSET AND EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION...AND TRACK OF SURFACE LOW AND WARM SECTOR STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION.

DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER FRONTOGENESIS INDICATED IN ALL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.  WHERE BEST BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP...AND WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING ...WILL DETERMINE WHAT AREAS WILL SEE MIXED PRECIPITATION OR A PERIOD OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING....

THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION OR A PERIOD OF SNOW LOOK TO BE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS... CATSKILLS...HELDERBERGS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES.  A SHIFT IN THE STORM TRACK AND THE WARM SECTOR COULD SHIFT THE PRECIPITATION TRANSITION ZONE...OR MAY SPARE SOME AREAS OF PRECIPITATION IF THE STORM ENDS UP GOING WELL NORTH OR WELL SOUTH SO STAY TUNED.  THE UPPER SYSTEM DOES LOOK TO BE AN OPEN WAVE...SO PRECIPITATION DURATION AND INTENSITY LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUICK WITH MODERATE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

Toll Road?

JasonWx wrote

Steve..vacation in oct??

I haven't had a full week off in over two years... pretty much I had to take one for my own mental sanity. I'll still have over two more weeks I can take this winter.

My first guess : 3-5 for the ADK's..The system is a fast mover.. Maybe a couple more inches for the Greens..

JasonWx wrote

My first guess : 3-5 for the ADK's..The system is a fast mover.. Maybe a couple more inches for the Greens..

I like your first guess!

Heard it might stick around a little extra, and they're talking colder temps now.

just saw the latest run..sorry to say things aren't looking that impressive...it's now a quick mover with out much precipitation ..still it's only Monday so things can still change..

Here's Lionel's call:

http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/full-size-candy-bars-winter-weather-event-able/

He's also talking about possibilities for a coastal on Sunday.

This is old (yesterday) but kinda fun:

first snow of the season is looking like a good bet, the NAM would give at least a few inches to the southern adirondacks, Euro and Ukie also pretty much agree with the possibility of an accumulating snowfall.

still sticking with amounts..cats might be the winner in this one or the berkshires..

next system is WAY off the coast..so no coastal at this time..

I think SBR should go and check out Collingwood.

Hmmm. That map does not jive with the Envt Canada forecast for Collingwood, which is calling for rain, rain, rain and temps above freezing. Think I'll stay home and wait for lake effect to kick in.