Storm Speculation: 11/27/13

The forecast just changed from 8" on tue PM to 5" & wintery mix. Now no ice on wed, but another 3 to 5" wed PM. Temps stay cold. This is about Gore base lodge elevation, higher up should be all snow. We could see a lot of terrain in play this weekend.

Winter Storm Watch

A few more counties in central VT have been included over the past few hours.

those are watches...
and remember winter storm warnings are issued for freezing rain and sleet too

Here's my forecast using the 12z NAM and 12zGFS
There will be a period of heavy rain at all elevations Wed morning ..Let me tell you my reasoning, the 850mb(5000k ft) zero line goes north of the Canadian boarder. Also the temp at 500mb (approx 18k ft + or  -) is above 0c..
 
this shows about 6+ hrs of rain..
Unfortunately the NAM is even warmer..Colder air will start return around 6pm on Wed night..
Many more months of winter to go..

JasonWx wrote

the 850mb(5000k ft) zero line goes north of the Canadian boarder. Also the temp at 500mb (approx 18k ft + or  -) is above 0c..

Pshaw, what about Orographic uplift and NAD cycling (just making up words at this point), I have no idea what you're talking about or what this means. Are you saying the air is too warm for snow?

this shows about 6+ hrs of rain

So you're saying it's a gully washer?

DMC turned me on to this chic via FB ---- she explains things for weather dummies like me ---- iffin you too are a weather dummie you may want to follow her


https://www.facebook.com/#!/media/set/?set=a.579835732063799.1073741875.254982781215764&type=1

Matt - yes, he's saying it's too warm for snow even at 5000 feet, the top of our biggest mountains.  And it stays that way even as you move well north of here.  Those blue lines are where it's snowing and the red lines where it's doing something else.  That's a gross generalization because it can do crappy things even below freezing (and can even snow when it's above freezing) but when the 0c line goes well north of us, it's never good.  The 850mb/500mb just refers to barometric pressure.  The higher the number, the lower the elevation.

Matt
the 18z NAM's fous is cranking out 1.25 inches of h20  for BTV ( Burlington)all in warm air.. I'm hoping the precip is over done..
I wanted snow so bad for this one..depressing..

I promise not to use "gully washer" this winter..

Noah John wrote

Matt - yes, he's saying it's too warm for snow even at 5000 feet, the top of our biggest mountains.  And it stays that way even as you move well north of here.  Those blue lines are where it's snowing and the red lines where it's doing something else.  That's a gross generalization because it can do crappy things even below freezing (and can even snow when it's above freezing) but when the 0c line goes well north of us, it's never good.  The 850mb/500mb just refers to barometric pressure.  The higher the number, the lower the elevation.

well said, I didn't want to get into the Thickness thing etc.

Open snow just posted this in their New England Forecast

"at this moment it looks like Whiteface will be the clear winner with accumulations well over a foot, and perhaps even approaching two feet"

Jason are you saying we are getting nothing or are you referring to farther south?  I like Open Snows forecast better

Fixed my storm watch above.

Coach Z wrote

Open snow just posted this in their New England Forecast

"at this moment it looks like Whiteface will be the clear winner with accumulations well over a foot, and perhaps even approaching two feet"

Jason are you saying we are getting nothing or are you referring to farther south?  I like Open Snows forecast better

I noticed this a few hours ago when I was clicking though the NWS links:



...it's an automated NWS forecast for 3800 feet somewhere up on Whiteface.

Harvey wrote

Fixed my storm watch above.

Coach Z wrote

Open snow just posted this in their New England Forecast

"at this moment it looks like Whiteface will be the clear winner with accumulations well over a foot, and perhaps even approaching two feet"

Jason are you saying we are getting nothing or are you referring to farther south?  I like Open Snows forecast better

 

 

i wish they were right..but i'm going to stick to my guns..
Brian Clarke from OpenSnow hasn't updated since Sunday..

From Darren at www.ilsnow.com

"Total snow accumulation from Tuesday night through Wednesday Night: 3-6 inches around Indian Lake and Speculator; 6-10 inches from Moose River Plains into the Western Adirondacks."

More details in the weather section of the site

Here is an optimistic outlook for NY. This guy is like Tim "the Toolman" Taylor doing the weather. Also he is JPR's new weather guy:

The new 0z NAM is painting a very nice upslope event for late Wed and Thurs for the Northern Dacks and Greens..

BTV forecast snowfall totals

JasonWx wrote

I promise not to use "gully washer" this winter..

I protest this.

As far as I am concerned the ONLY even mildly enjoyable aspect of a gully washer, is hearing Jason call it so.

Good news..The 6z run came in colder..Northern areas might do ok, The Cats and S VT are still screwed..

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I'm pretty sure Jason is not a fan of NWS point forecasting. This may be one reason.

How can Thursday show a second gully washer?  Pouring rain could happen on a day with a high of 20 and a low of 4, but it doesn't seem likely.