Storm Speculation: 12/28/12

Harvey44 wrote

Jason, Noreaster, weather experts... timing of this storm is an issue for our family - ladies don't want to drive on Christmas Day, but I may have to do it, if we can avoid driving in it. Best guesses as to timing and Ptype by region (Flatlands, Hudson Valley, Capital District, North Country) are welcome.

as of now weds looks clear to drive..things ramp up wed night and thurs..could be a wild one

GFS...



and the Euro...



Found this for timing:

JasonWx wrote

Harvey44 wrote

Jason, Noreaster, weather experts... timing of this storm is an issue for our family - ladies don't want to drive on Christmas Day, but I may have to do it, if we can avoid driving in it. Best guesses as to timing and Ptype by region (Flatlands, Hudson Valley, Capital District, North Country) are welcome.

as of now weds looks clear to drive..things ramp up wed night and thurs..could be a wild one

The forecasts for Wed are now converging nicely, looks like you should be OK with light snow up through midnight Wed but then all hell (or heaven) breaks loose - not to get your hopes up but two big back to back storms are now in the forecast starting late Wed through Thursday and then round two Sat & Sun. Bring your snorkel

Been a while since we've seen one of these!
BTV Discussion says they will most likely issue watches overnight, that would cover whiteface.

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...GREATER CAPITAL REGION...SOUTHERN VERMONT...BERKSHIRES...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TACONICS...NORTHERN CATSKILLS...AND THE HUDSON VALLEY OF GREENE AND COLUMBIA COUNTIES.

* HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. SOME MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

* ACCUMULATIONS...A MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SNOW WILL BE HEAVIEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE ON THURSDAY. SLEET AND  FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADWAYS WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS TRAVEL.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S

Love snow but how much wind will accompany that?  

Harv, not sure if you've heard of New England Weather Works, but they're nice to use as a cross reference to what Lionel posts. And they update about every 2-3 hours.

They posted this 7 hours ago.

tBatt wrote

Harv, not sure if you've heard of New England Weather Works, but they're nice to use as a cross reference to what Lionel posts. And they update about every 2-3 hours.

Awesome. I wasn't aware of them. Facebook is their primary website?

I like that map too!

I am essentially an egalitarian at heart.  Were I the great creator, this is how I would design my storms...



This storm track has to be preserved for posterity as it is almost perfect...

Somehow, when Jason buys into it, it takes a small bit of the fun out of it!

  A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for the Southern Tier of NY. Snow begining Wednesday afternoon into Thursday,  8-12". Hopefully it'll be all snow.

  Perfect timing for me, Thursday is the only day I can miss without losing holiday pay. Merry Christmas to me! Anyone going to be at Greek Thursday? Judging from how well the closed half of Illiad skied Saturday, Odyssey and Olympian should be in play, open or not. I'll bring my rock skis this time, dumb ass.

I'm planning on being there Thursday. There will be a few of us for sure. I have to talk to Camp and see how he is doing. He did a few runs on Sunday for the first time since his knee injury. Fingers crossed...

Can't wait to hear what Darrin and Jason have to say.

Chris wrote

Can't wait to hear what Darrin and Jason have to say.

Darrin just chimed in:

http://www.ilsnow.com/2012/12/25/major-snowstorm-wednesday-night-through-thursday/

He's calling for major differences based on terrain and orographics.  He called for the potential for 2 feet at Gore on his Facebook page.

Hey skiers... why don't you CLICK the hell outta that link above. The more we pay attention to DH, the more he seems to consider us in his forecast. (His site is primarily for snowmobilers).

Well, I'm pretty stoked. I will be at Gore Thursday either way because it's my cousin's one chance to ski all year while he's on break from grad school at Duke.

In other news (HARV) I got a pretty fancy point-and-shoot still camera for Christmas so I'll be able to post GOOD QUALITY STILL SHOTS in my trip report, just like you've always wanted! Haha.

pro2860 wrote

I'm planning on being there Thursday. There will be a few of us for sure. I have to talk to Camp and see how he is doing. He did a few runs on Sunday for the first time since his knee injury. Fingers crossed...

hope the knee feels strong camp  I'll be there with the fam and some extended family newbs. will look for you guys. prolly not gonna make first chair though - gotta get my pass

Thacheronix wrote

Somehow, when Jason buys into it, it takes a small bit of the fun out of it!

Haha. I agree!

See everyone up there on Thursday (although apparently, I'll be teaching lessons. Hope I can get out for a few turns in the afternoon)

mattchuck2 wrote

 (although apparently, I'll be teaching lessons. Hope I can get out for a few turns in the afternoon)

Maybe you'll get lucky and get a private with some guy who wants to get better at skiing trees?

miker92 wrote

Maybe you'll get lucky and get a private with some guy who wants to get better at skiing trees?

That would be pretty sweet.

hate to be a party pooper but the mt rec forecast has it being pretty windy - Friday will likely be the better day.

THURSDAY...SUMMITS IN AND OUT OF CLOUDS. SNOW. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. EAST WINDS 45 TO 60 MPH...DECREASING
TO 30 TO 45 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

this looks very encouraging on the snowfall amounts

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/html/StormTotalSnow/StormTotalSnow.shtml

The wind won't be a problem for Gore if they get the summit double rolling. The Gondi may not fly but if we have a way to the top it doesn't matter. It can blow like stink but the straight brook chair usually is protected and if the Darkside is open it will be nirvana.