Storm Speculation: 2/16/16

the 18z is doing what i was expecting..
THIS is good news..
The Low is taking a more south easterly track and is weaker. thus it is not pulling in a lot of warm air..If it is , right snow for everyone but lesser amt..

This is based on ONE run and a 18z at that..so take it with a grain of salt

Sno's current degree is from the Wiki Department at Google University!  Once again, a lack of experience and inadequate "research" are his downfall.  

Sno....if a storm tracks to the west (or north, i.e. further inland) you get the potential for SW flow, warm winds, and warming off coastal waters in the zone east and south of the front.....and cold air is trapped west/north of the front.  As happened with the last r*in event, the mountains were all in the warm zone east of the front.  Move the front east (and south) and it brings the cold air down and right.  That's what's hopefully going to happen with this next storm, putting the mountains west and north of the front where the cold is.  Push the front too far south or east and the storms miss the mountains altogether, like we saw too often last year, and with the blizzard this year.

That's my rudimentary understanding, leaving the details to Jason.

Alright then I want it to track east and move the r*in/snow line South.  I don't want r*I'n, even if it means less snow further north.

Sno it could be 80 degrees in Jersey and as long as it is cold up here no one will care

Which would never happen.  It'll always be colder up there than in Vernon, but never that much of a difference.  Funny thing is that even in this horrible winter, Mountain Creek is coming up on 100% open.  Whiteface hasn't opened Lookout yet and probably won't, and the same is true at Gore with the Ski Bowl.  Keep it up with your elitist "everything that's not Whiteface or non-Park City out west is inferior" remarks.  You're digging yourself deeper every post.

% open though and ski acreage or ski trail milage are some very different things Loco.

Snowmaking capacity is measured relative to the amount of acreage you have.  If Whiteface or Gore for that matter can't open all their lifts with it, especially with more favorable temps than Hunter and MC get, they need an upgrade.

Just checked the latest of a couple forecasts.  The rain for Tuesday is gone.....but so is the heavy snow on the back end.  Still a ways off....

Does look like the track is getting colder?

Any eastern storm with real potential is going to flirt with danger!

Got to be in it to win it!

You are comparing the amount of snow you need to blow on a cherry to a watermelon

The mileage is what you are not looking at not % open which is what you are fixated on.  

this is turning into a real pain in the ass..flip flopping runs...what ever it is , it will be fast and as of now a moderate event at best..

many more days to go

peace and love

Wow.  People are getting angry up in here.  You can tell it's been a snowless winter.

Every twelve hours the wheelhouse shifts. It's like a game of roulette... where will the ball finally land?

Bring it. Somebody will get the goods.  And just maybe, many will get something. That would be cool.

snoloco wrote

If Whiteface or Gore for that matter can't open all their lifts with it, especially with more favorable temps than Hunter and MC get, they need an upgrade.

If I had to ski on man made snow all the time i would actually quit skiing.

Accuweather posts a map.



...and there's this...

Both the 0z and 6z GFS brings the low up thru central NY ..The 0z eruo has a more southerly track..

The euro is a little weaker and flatter,
This is the Euro for valid 0z Wed (tues night at 7pm)


This is the GFS same time


Big difference..GFS has rain to snow event the EURO all snow..
If the 12z GFS is still going to the left..Well I would go with it..

peace and love

this from the 12z GFS 54hr map...Basically a rain event for everyone followed by some snow on the backside..

This is the worst possible track / solution.  Gotta hope storm ticks a bit to the east, and that Whiteface elevation can help.  Cold air fighting displacement longer than depicted would be nice too.  Issues with every dang system this season.  Complete Murphy's Law.

Here's my final say on this piece of crap..
For the Dacks light to moderate snow followed my moderate to heavy rain followed by light to moderate snow...
Cats..light snow followed by moderate to heavy rain followed by a quick shot of moderate snow..

then seasonable followed by more rain for the Cats on saturday , maybe some light snow/light rain for the Dacks..

peace and love

Props to Jason for taking on the role of shit messenger.  It be very tempting to not like you , for all of your keeping us grounded in reality in this shit weather season!  But you do your best, and it's appreciated.

Notice I didn't says shit season.  Skiing wise, it's amazing what the mountains can do.  Riding the lifts at Whiteface today it's sad to see how little snow is out there on the mountain.  Despite that, Whiteface has just about everything open, save Empire, Blazers, and the glades.  Well, that and I doubt we see Lookout this season.  Kudos to them.  The grooming crew in particularly.  Lower Sky is closed today because it is a wind blown, coral-ed death trap.....the like of which the whole mountain would be without incredible snow makers and groomers.  Upper Sky is delightful.