Storm Speculation: 2/16/16

I waited as long as I could.

While Rebecca does think she is the shizzle, one thing I love about her is she is willing to put herself out there:



Right now, For the potential storm Next week.

I think we will see low pressure move out of the Plains, and another area of low pressure moving out of the Southeast. The Low coming up the coast will most likely ride along the coastal plain and East of the Appalachian mountains.

For those in Pennsylvania, New York State, and Northern New England ; I think there is going to be a widespread area of 6-12+ inch snowfall..........But those in Southern New England on down the I-95 Corridor, there very will likely be frontend snow then a changeover to mix then rain. I'm still wondering about the possibility of some ice in the Hudson Valley.

Most of the time in this kind of setup, a storm riding up and a departing area of arctic air.....storms overachieve.

Wednesday is now reserved for skiing.

or should I say..... Reserve'd.

If 12z hfs is correct. The storm is a shit show for anyone east of the dacks.   If trough goes more negitively tilted everyone is f'dNeed to hope for less intense system

Update...
Keeping it short , like pulling off a band aid..

As of today, remember it's still 4 days away with 16 more runs to go..

the low tracks to Bing,Precipt will start out as snow followed by  wind and heavy rains to the Dacks and VT etc. There should be some snow on the back side..


as the great Ringo Star say's

peace and love

Welp, so far this am Rebecca is silent, we'll see if she stays bullish on snow.

GFS is still bullish or maybe on crack for the dak:

All r*in according to weather.com.  Even for Killington.

Weather.com is useless.  There are several sites out there focused on what is forecast in the mountains or at elevation.  Most of those have snow Monday night, to r*in for the daylight hours Tuesday, back to snow Tuesday night into Wednesday.  Accumulations on the back end for the high peaks of the Dacks and Greens could be significant (6+).  No idea if that will pan out, but I trust it more than Weather.com.

update..
12gfs has jogged the storm a bit to the right..this is very good news...
don't be surprised if  the 0z does the opposite..time will tell

peace and love

Well it's going to be slush if anything.  This thread proves just how bad this winter has been.  People excited over getting 6 inches of slush.  

did you not read what i just posted?

Open snow is calling for 9-21" for WF and 8-19" for Gore with more mixing for Gore with the temps getting above freezing there on Tuesday while WF stays below 32 for the whole shooting match.

This year always set up as a match for 2007 and that is playing out if this storm hits.  Fingers crossed.

Coach Z wrote

Open snow is calling for 9-21" for WF and 8-19" for Gore

I predict the NL batting champion will have a batting average between .310 and .390.

#OutOnALimb

Seriously though, they need to suck it up and tighten that range or just wait a while before putting out a forecast.  lol

JasonWx wrote

update..
12gfs has jogged the storm a bit to the right..this is very good news...
don't be surprised if  the 0z does the opposite..time will tell

peace and love

The 06z to 12z GFS shift is a violent as you'll see.  The Canuck shift was a doozy too.  These models are currently a rollercoaster ride.

BenedictGomez wrote

JasonWx wrote

update..
12gfs has jogged the storm a bit to the right..this is very good news...
don't be surprised if  the 0z does the opposite..time will tell

peace and love

The 06z to 12z GFS shift is a violent as you'll see.  The Canuck shift was a doozy too.  These models are currently a rollercoaster ride.

This is so true...I wouldn't fall off my chair if this thing never materialized at all..  

Lots of vorts embedded  in the 500mb flow..Model is getting confused

Coach Z wrote

Open snow is calling for 9-21" for WF and 8-19" for Gore with more mixing for Gore with the temps getting above freezing there on Tuesday while WF stays below 32 for the whole shooting match.

This year always set up as a match for 2007 and that is playing out if this storm hits.  Fingers crossed.

I just read the open snow NewEngland discussion..They never mention accumulations..those individual resort numbers you see are computer generated

 

The only place I ski on a regular basis that is getting a meaningful amount of snow is Killington.  Mount Snow, Hunter, and Mountain Creek are all r*in.  Hopefully this thing dissolves or tracks north so the places I ski don't get hurt.

You want it to track East, then everybody wins.  But not too far East...

If it tracks east, I get more r*in.  I don't want any r*in under any circumstances.

snoloco wrote

If it tracks east, I get more r*in.  I don't want any r*in under any circumstances.

you might know lifts etc..but you don't know jack squat about weather.. more easterly track allows you to stay on the colder side of the storm...Lows spin counter clockwise in the northern hemisphere..