Storm Speculation: 2/24/12

Winter Storm Watch posted by BTV/Whiteface. First one in hell of a long time:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

* LOCATIONS...FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY.

* HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING...BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FROM THE SOUTH...WITH SNOW HEAVIEST DURING THE MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. UPSLOPE SNOW INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

Winter Storm Watch issued, that usually dooms any hope of real accumulation. Now watch for the usual frenzy of over-hype by all the local TV stations.

The updated forecast is up on www.grotonweather.com. The timing of our storm tonight seems a bit more certain...a 3-4 hour burst of heavy precipitation somewhere between 2-8am. *IF* it stays snow, we could easily pick up 4-6" in that short time. Or it could mostly be rain and we get next to know snow. I honestly can't make a call either way yet. Next website update between 4-5pm. Keep checking back here for updates, too! Like and share this, please!

Watches, warnings and advisories are up. Looks like NoAdk and NoVT are in the wheelhouse:


..but also looks like everyone will score something.

LH was on this early and he's locked in!  NOAA weather contact also emailed to say heaviest snow from 9AM - 1PM tomorrow with some great wrap around into Sat.  Said Sat will be awesome too!



I'm calling bull's eye!

18z gfs is showing 4-8 for the high country maybe a bit more for favored areas of the greens..
the 18z is going off for the greens..10-16"...that said , the models have sucked this year..it will be interesting in how this plays out

Update to the Warnings, watches and advisories:


I clicked through all the NWS point forecast links on the Weather Page and the thing that REALLY caught my eye was the forecast for WHITEFACE. Yikes, it's off the charts:

Today: Snow, mainly after 11am. High near 34. Windy, with a southeast wind 9 to 12 mph increasing to between 25 and 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Tonight: Snow. Low around 18. Windy, with a south wind 28 to 31 mph becoming southwest 18 to 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 12 to 18 inches possible.

Saturday: Snow showers likely, mainly before 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 22. Wind chill values as low as -4. Windy, with a west wind between 31 and 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

I think it was Scotty calling for the slides to open this year. Yesterday I thought that was crazy talk. Today?  Who knows. That bullseye call could be spot on!

On a personal note, from someone who can't be there, someone please post some SOP.  

Endo ... you may have to accept the fact that Big Tupper could be OFF THE HOOK.

fingerscrossX...  the waiting, the waiting....  Please MoNat bring it home!!  PLEASE!

More is always nice BUT i damn thankful for what we have gotten yesterday and for whatever comes tonite -- headin out now for some turns ---------------------yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee Haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

Noaa WF point forecast for 3800 feet says total storm total of 17 -27".  Could be the powder day of the century but with not much base in the woods we could be hitting bottom.  Be careful in the back country guys Avy danager will be high with all this new snow sitting on the slick old surface hoar layer

 to quote Greenspan this reeks of "irrational exuberance"

Just a teaser, next week we get the real goods.

ausable skier wrote

Noaa WF point forecast for 3800 feet says total storm total of 17 -27".  Could be the powder day of the century but with not much base in the woods we could be hitting bottom.  Be careful in the back country guys Avy danager will be high with all this new snow sitting on the slick old surface hoar layer

Noaa point forecast for WF 3800 feet now reduced to 7 to 15" - Jason and the weather guys is something happening to the track to drop the forecast so much from a few hours ago?

Harvey44 wrote

On a personal note, from someone who can't be there, someone please post some SOP.  

Harv

if this comes in as promised you have to get up here ballet or school play be dammed - your kid will understand (someday).  My kids is doing cartwheels over the powder day potetnial this weekend.

the models cut the qpf in half..

Harv, Lets hope the forecast is right for once. WF may get the snow but if the wind predictions are right the upper mountain will probably not open as usual. Sun am might be the best shot at pow if any of it remains on the trails after the big wind. Big Tupper is open, conditions fair to good. They got about 8-10" yesterday on the upper trails, problem was that it was heavy and Big T doesn't have enough pitch for the most part to make it enjoyable..Don't get me wrong it was good on a few trails open or poached but it didn't last long. There just isn't enough acreage. If they get more tonight it will help cover up some of the punjies and brush but you'll still be tree/brush skiing on many of the open trails. Problem was they didn't brush most of the steeper terrain last summer so there is a lot of whips/small trees that have grown to 3-4'. Tough to get enough natural to cover that up, Snowmaking is the only hope for the future of the hill but that appears to be many yrs in the future, if ever.

not much of anything coming down - could be a dud?

Hard to believe something isn't coming down...


Report from North Creek ... "sleet just changed to snow at the base..."

With regard to the dud concept... when a storm like this tracks through the great lakes and it doesn't POUR RAIN, hard to think of it as a dud.  It's kind of a miracle really.

Hey Jason ... irrational exuberance is the only kind I got.  

Imagine, if they had a web cam we would not need them to relay that message to you then you to post it. Just a thought.

zach wrote

Imagine, if they had a web cam we would not need them to relay that message to you then you to post it. Just a thought.

Zach my bad - that wasn't a report from "Gore" - it was from Shaman.

Weather has been back and forth between sleet and snow the last few hours, snowing at a good clip at this time.