Storm Speculation: Feb 23-25 2012

maybe part is out..

The 00z Euro basically crushed our hopes and dreams.

Not giving up hope until I see the 12z Euro (I'm hoping the 00z was an aberration), as the 00z moved this sucker 150 miles east, which totally screws NY ski areas if it verifies.

Mr Gomez is right..
This is from my buddy who is a professional Meteorologist. He is referring to the 12z Euro

dude.... the new Euro is crazy!! really not much with this first piece, it is further south and east with it but zero line is too our north and lesser qpf's... the next piece is wilder... the entire 500mb and surface pass underneath and crazy blocking high pressure builds and builds in Quebec, then the entire pattern just stalls for days!!!
 

Watched a recent TV report about the Euro vs GFS models. Euro has 10X the computing power over the GFS. This was one reason the Euro has been more accurate but not all the time. TWC guys were hoping to get the GFS system up to the same standards soon, but as with anything associated with Gov funding it will probably be on hold as not viewed by the Gov as essential. (IMHO that's wrong)

The Euro giveth, the Euro taketh away.

This is looking like not much more than a dusting to a few inches for NY.  Elsewhere in ski country it's a massive downgrade versus previous projections as it continues to trend east and into the Atlantic.

At least there's another shot on goal coming next week.

"Storm Speculation" threads: Stoke in the beginning, disappointment at the end.

3-6", added to the 3-5" they got on Wednesday, will still make for a pretty good weekend and a nice backcountry Monday.

Yeah Speculation: A conclusion, opinion, or theory reached by conjecture. Reasoning based on inconclusive evidence or supposition.

If we ran this place on facts it be a ghost town.  

Lionel's call is about 4 hours old so, it obviously doesn't have the latest model runs in it:

http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/next-up-more-pow/

Ya try to be optimistic and go big, but a down grade is in order..18z NAM is weaker and further east.
Not that any 18z is god, but it is the trend..
So 3-6 for the Dack's and Greens.. And more for the usually places in the Greens..

Jason

Dare I ask if this is going to be a wind maker for us at Whiteface?  Please say no.  It's been a tough week.

How is Tuesday now looking?

Maybe breezy on Sunday and Monday..Shouldn't be to bad
I can't even begin to guess about Tues..

Oh let's name this one - that will surely make it snow more. I think we should call it Nimrod...

so much for the 6+ up here.  I am not going to read this weather thread ever again.  

Amazing to me that NWS Albany is still using terminology like COULD this close in:

"...WILL TRACK NORTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY…AND COULD BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES NORTH…AND A WINTRY MIXTURE TO THE SOUTH."

WOW..
what was so promising 2 days ago is now a piece of crap..
1-3 for the mountains..maybe 4 or 5 if they get lucky

JasonWx wrote

WOW..
what was so promising 2 days ago is now a piece of crap..
1-3 for the mountains..maybe 4 or 5 if they get lucky

The Grim Reaper strikes again.

Maybe Tuesday?

It looks like it might snow. If that is crap, how would you characterize your garden variety gully washer, blowtorch or icy beast?


From NWS BVT:



Of course the GFS is still on crack:

That GFS forecast map is 144 hours out.  That's next Thursday.

I always assumed it was cumulative - now through the date listed?

It is but the GFS must be calling for most of that 16" jackpot for the ADKs to come in on the mid week storm b/c I don't think it's calling for a big deal this weekend.  Which still may make it out to lunch.  What do the Euro and Nam say for the mid-week storm?  I no longer cling to each model run like I used to.  That rollercoaster ride starts to really suck after a while.

ive often wondered y u guys just dont watch the frigen weather on tv,,they as wrong as u guys r .