Storm Speculation: Feb 23-25 2012

Short and sweet
Wide spread moderate to some heavy snows
amounts 10-20" + or - depending on the exact track of the low

yes yes yes yes yesyesysysysyeyeysysyawyeydchjbc.kjbgc

That's when I start my VACATION---effin right

this better not be a joke.  I'm checking w/ Lionel!!

No joke dude

Jason for the WIN

ScottyJack wrote

this better not be a joke.  I'm checking w/ Lionel!!

The might Euro says it aint no joke (I'd post the GFS, but it's less reliable, and people might have a heart attack from what they'd see).

EDIT:  Nevermind.  Looks like Harvey went and posted the GFS while I was making this post.  It's his fault if it causes medical trauma.

I'm getting confused by the differing forecasts

I signed up for Open snow Pro and they have a storm on saturday and then again on Tuesday which is what it looks like Harv is referencing.

Roger Hill is saying high pressure
Next Week…
Settled Weather with a large dome of higher pressure was looking key for Monday, Tuesday and very possibly Wednesday. There after we are keeping our eyes on the next weather system, with a southern connection of (juiced up moisture) making its way along for Friday the 1st of March.

 The GFS spits out stupid QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast ) amounts sometimes..Need to wait til tomorrow to get a better handle on amounts..

Yes - it does look like something may happen Tue through Wed. Need to wait a few days though, we have gotten our hopes up before. I just told my daughter to start to prepare to have Wed off school, I will make preparations for work as well just in case. I need to teach my wife how to use the new snow blower when I get home this weekend so I can go Tue PM and not feel too guilty.

Snow for the Catskills on Sunday will be epic.

I'm ready.  but holding till Lionel green lights it.  he's really never been wrong in the 4-5 years I've followed his 4casts....

I want that red bloop to move just a but north....  

18z GFS is still pretty consistent with the 12z and the Euro..
so 10-20" is still a pretty good bet..
I don't think it will be blower, 540 line goes north of the Cats for  a little while and surface cold air isn't that deep..

next wed is interesting..with a cut off low parked over NY anything can happen..stupid things happen under a cut off

Here's some weather porn...


Scotty's wish come true?


Looks like there is some doubt that the northern and southern energy will phase which could limit precip and still a chance that more will fall south and east of Albany.

My guess is that something will fall Sat/Sat night and it is likely to be snow.  As always, there is a 50% chance that Jason will use the word "bust" in the next 72 hours.

IMO this is what eastern storms are all about. You got to be in it to win it. And 6 inches would make a big difference everywhere.

in an effort to abate the winds and bring the snow, I shaved my beard off early!  

And YES!  the best color is now draped over our beloved WF!!

Plus we're in the 6+ for this Sat into Sun!

everyone else should do some sort of tribal sacrifice ceremony to avoid Jason having to use the B word!

Do it!

Jason or anyone... any estimate on timing?  NWS seems to be saying most snow will fall between 2pm Sat and 5am Sun. Sound good?

just looked at the 12z GFS
it is now hinting at a more southerly and easterly track. if it does that for the next 2 runs. i might drop snow totals for the mountains..
The NAM was also trending in that direction too..They both start precip late on Saturday.

JasonWx wrote

just looked at the 12z GFS
it is now hinting at a more southerly and easterly track. if it does that for the next 2 runs. i might drop snow totals for the mountains..
The NAM was also trending in that direction too..They both start precip late on Saturday.

The Euro's been boss this year.  (NOAA should hire a computer hack to steal their algorithm)   But you need a subscription.  What's the 12z euro say?  The 00z euro tracked the coastal outside the benchmark.  That doesn't sound too good.  I like the NAM at this point.

I'd go to AmericanWX but that place is a shitshow when there's even a hint of an I-95 storm.

The new 12z eruo   comes out around 3 ish

There's a Euro running right now that the weenies on AmericanWX are babbling about.  It's out to about 72-78 hrs?  Doesn't sound too good either but I never really know what those wx-nerds are spewing about.