Storm Speculation: March 14 - 15 2015

More than a couple of forecasts have a storm in the works for this coming weekend, with high pressure shifting east and a southern stream system coming across.  Complex setup, and some differences on timing, but with temps trending colder toward the weekend we could see moderate snow in the mountains, with some non frozen precip in the valleys.

What are any of our resident experts seeing?

Will be at Belle on Sunday, some snow to freshen the glades would be nice.  A good storm for everyone could solidify a great spring.  Yes, things are warming up, but March into April will have seasonal to below normal temps.....

I'm no expert.

NWS ALB:

WITH REGARDS TO PRECIP TYPE...MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COLDER
WITH THERMAL PROFILES...ALTHOUGH SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY THIS TIME OF YEAR IN DETERMINING RAIN VS
SNOW. WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
SATURDAY/SUNDAY IN THE VALLEYS WILL MENTION RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH SNOW AT NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY SNOW FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH A LOT CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND LOOKS QUITE
CHAOTIC...WITH POSSIBLE WEAK SECONDARY CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ALONG OR
OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS
SOMEWHAT DISPLACED RATHER FAR TO THE WEST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE CHANCE TO PRODUCE DECENT ACCUMULATING SNOW...BUT
THERE IS STILL A LOT UNCERTAINTY.

Let 'er pound POW ---- we'll be skiing Stowe one week from today!

I think this is it...

At least one forecast has changed to a Catskills gully washer.  

Most still looking at cold enough temps for snow in the high peaks further north, but it could be a nail biter.

Any idea on the timing (starting/ending when) -- specifically for NVT?

So far it looks good for Smuggs.

Bueller?  (JASON)

Good reason for you to take the high road and stay in the bar.

Gully washer for MC and Hunter.  God damn.  Might be wise to go bowling.

Harvey wrote

So far it looks good for Smuggs.
Bueller?  (JASON)

Say what?

Jamesdeluxe wrote

Any idea on the timing (starting/ending when) -- specifically for NVT?

Yes please....VERY interested in this as well

The weather should be nice from the bar.  You will have a good time.

It's a crap shoot at this point.  ECMWF and GFS in disagreement, ECMWF the warmer solution, whereas the GFS outlook could bring significant accumulating snow.  

One forecast has the VT mountains from Stratton on up and the peaks in the Dacks as snow, with rain and or mixed in the valleys.

Timing for VT and the Dacks looks like Sat afternoon through the day Sun.

Cats still showing rain all day Sat, with some snow during the day Sun.

I'm just piecing together info from a few sources....

This weekend is a toss up..too many solutions.. what i found interesting, is how a greenland block starts to develop later in the week..

What's everyone's feeling on this as we move into the end of the week....

This is quite the positive outlook in comparison to most reports I've been reading but I hope he's right!

I hope he's right too

Maybe we'll get lucky, and I'm not even Irish!

campgottagopee wrote

I hope he's right too

Maybe we'll get lucky, and I'm not even Irish!

I think there is going to be some very good skiing in NoVT in the next few days and reports indicate no funk above 2500. The NWS forecast seems to have eliminated the mix. Whiteface looks cold enough too.

What days are you skiing Camp?

We arrive sun, ski mon-tues-wed, head back thurs. Ski fri - sat - sun at Greek