NOAA this morning talking about 6-12 across higher Essex locations. .5 to 1 inch of QPF with a 10-13:1 ratio. They have really removed any discussion of sleet. This forecast jives with one I use, which shows 8-10 for Whiteface.
Higher QPF south given the track, but poor snow ratios given slightly warmer temps could keep this from being bigger, but Gore likely to be in the 8-12 range. If a warm nose does push in and produce any sleet it would be in this southern region.
Looking at the NOAA Graphicsl forecasts (because the are fun to play with) Whiteface does quite well. For those thinking VT it shows Rutland and KTown at ground zero. Definitely has the prettiest purples after midnight Friday.....
The hotel is paid for, I've got lift ticket vouchers (one extra by the way if anyone needs one cheap)....and snow's coming. Hope to be there both days. Just need to make arrangements for my son to get to his soccer game Saturday. I'm fine leaving the kids home, would rather not ditch my lovely wife a second week in a row. Probably come up Saturday afternoon and ski Sunday if I can't ski both days.
yes, main concern is sleet and snow ratios less than 10 to 1...either way looks like a heavy wet paste job. I could see gore getting 6-8 or a foot+....still like 8 - 12 as of now will wait for the rest of the models to come out.
12z GFS is cold and 2 inches QPF for most of warren county, would be huge for Gore...0z Euro was in its camp. The 12z NAM and RGEM bring warmth and sleet at 800mb. Surface temps look like the upper 20s on all models. The issue remains sleet and snow growth.