Storm Speculation: March 31 2017

JasonWx wrote

mattchuck2 wrote

I'm toying with the idea of running up to killington..I don't think it would be worth it for 6"

I've identified the problem. If you don't think a 6" powder day at Killington is "worth it", I can't help you.

4 + hour ride...my only day off

100$ lift ticket + 100 hotel

Come to Whiteface and i'll give you a leftover bogo coupon I have...

Jason, at my computer now.  6z GFS was very wet!  1.90 QPF at GFL!

Yep
the maps aren't matching up to the numerical out put..

the MOS has a 6 in their snow group..Gore should be off the hook

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getall.pl?sta=KGFL

im driving up to lake george tonight...fingers crossed.  Would be thrilled with 8-12....should open back up the woods

Albany is taking the cautious / conservative approach for now:

I wonder what elevation they are using..could be significantly more snow above 2k feet

I think the 12z will tell the story...
i bet the it will be somewhere in between the nam and gfs

NOAA this morning talking about 6-12 across higher Essex locations.  .5 to 1 inch of QPF with a 10-13:1 ratio.  They have really removed any discussion of sleet. This forecast jives with one I use, which shows 8-10 for Whiteface.

Higher QPF south given the track, but poor snow ratios given slightly warmer temps could keep this from being bigger, but Gore likely to be in the 8-12 range.  If a warm nose does push in and produce any sleet it would be in this southern region.

Looking at the NOAA Graphicsl forecasts (because the are fun to play with) Whiteface does quite well.  For those thinking VT it shows Rutland and KTown at ground zero.  Definitely has the prettiest purples after midnight Friday.....

JTG4eva! wrote

This forecast jives with one I use, which shows 8-10 for Whiteface.

You going to be at Whiteface this weekend?

I would hook Debbie Downer up with a voucher if he came up just cause I do stuff like that.  Interested let me know.  

For you weather wienies this is the latest FOUS
the NAM is wetter but it is bringing in warmer air aloft

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/fous/FOUS61

NAM is still warm but the trend is a slow cooling from run to run.  Still looking good in my book

ADmiKe wrote

You going to be at Whiteface this weekend?

The hotel is paid for, I've got lift ticket vouchers (one extra by the way if anyone needs one cheap)....and snow's coming.  Hope to be there both days.  Just need to make arrangements for my son to get to his soccer game Saturday.  I'm fine leaving the kids home, would rather not ditch my lovely wife a second week in a row.  Probably come up Saturday afternoon and ski Sunday if I can't ski both days.

How was that for a longer answer than you needed!

this could be a massive event...
also a nail bitter

yes, main concern is sleet and snow ratios less than 10 to 1...either way looks like a heavy wet paste job.  I could see gore getting 6-8 or a foot+....still like 8 - 12 as of now will wait for the rest of the models to come out.

GFS crushes the dacks 12+

12z GFS is cold and 2 inches QPF for most of warren county, would be huge for Gore...0z Euro was in its camp.  The 12z NAM and RGEM bring warmth and sleet at 800mb.  Surface temps look like the upper 20s on all models.  The issue remains sleet and snow growth.

I just figured out why the GFS looks dry to me...Since they did the update, the qpf is calculated on a 1hr basis..need to add up all the hours you are in the shading.. live and learn

it's gonna a be a massive event..especially for the greens

i use tropical tidbits these days

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

Thank you...looks good

JasonWx wrote

it's gonna a be a massive event..especially for the greens

So. Greens you think, like K-ton?  Or NoVT