Storm Speculation: March 31 2017

What do the weather guys think think about snow on Fridaynight?

Open Snow is calling for 8 to 15" at Killington but with a freezing level close to their summit and only 5-11" for WF with a freezing level below our base.  That would indicate WF seems more of a sure thing for snow and less rain.

My friend wants me to go the visit him at Killington.  I'm leaning towards staying home at WF.

looks good for Gore / Face / K-Mart etc...early call is 6 - 12 inches.  Think everyone is good once above 1500 feet.

Both Killington and Whiteface will be good. I'm going back to Northern VT, though. Smugg's is going to be sweeeeeet.

This is going to be another great weekend of skiing. The Higher you go, the higher you are. Don't quit early, you downstate wimps.

mattchuck2 wrote

  The Higher you go, the higher you are.

The ceiling is the roof

MJ

campgottagopee wrote

mattchuck2 wrote

  The Higher you go, the higher you are.

The ceiling is the roof

MJ

"Tear the roof off the sucker"
- George Clinton and the Parliament Funkadelic

Rebecca's NE weather keeps saying this won't be a big deal and models are over amp-ing totals...I hope she's wrong....

NOAA

Wasn't planning on skiing this weekend but that's quickly changing....

Yeah. This might be one of the best April weekends ever.

The tale  of 2 models..
NAM is loaded with QPF up to .75 for the mountains..
The GFS is less then half that. It will be interesting today to see what the 12z does..If the GFS is right this is much to do about nothing, on the other hand , if the NAM is right , a sweet event will be had..

Just saw the 6z GFS..If it is correct..3-5 for the mountains at best...

more info around noon...

3-5" of wet base snow, followed by a warm spring day Sunday sounds perfect.

Not sure what GFS your looking at this is 8 to 12 for the dacks the wildcard is sleet, NAM is aggressive with warmth at 800mb.  Euro and ha GFS are much colder... Euro has been very consistent with a foot for Gore

GFS has been tending south with the system..and is much faster..

i agree the the nam is much more aggressive with it's qpf and warming..

I'm toying with the idea of running up to killington..I don't think it would be worth it for 6"

If the GFS is stronger on the 12z then It will be massive in the mountains..

I'm not worried about QPF looks like a solid 1 , only concern is mid level warmth and poor dendrite growth... With that said Euro has been very consistent will see what 12z has to say.  Low passing over NYC with nice easterly flow into the southern greens and dacks usually delivers the goods

gfs_apcpn_neus_14.png

6z GFS QPF over an inch for Warren county

Do you have access to the real time EURO?

I'm toying with the idea of running up to killington..I don't think it would be worth it for 6"

I've identified the problem. If you don't think a 6" powder day at Killington is "worth it", I can't help you.

mattchuck2 wrote

I'm toying with the idea of running up to killington..I don't think it would be worth it for 6"

I've identified the problem. If you don't think a 6" powder day at Killington is "worth it", I can't help you.

4 + hour ride...my only day off

100$ lift ticket + 100 hotel

JasonWx wrote

NAM is loaded with QPF up to .75 for the mountains..
The GFS is less then half that. It will be interesting today to see what the 12z does.

NorEaster27 wrote

I'm not worried about QPF looks like a solid 1 , only concern is mid level warmth and poor dendrite growth... With that said Euro has been very consistent will see what 12z has to say.

NorEaster27 wrote

6z GFS QPF over an inch

I love this weather stuff, I really do, but I don't understand it.  It sounds like teenagers texting.  I mean, what if GFS and NAM hooked up?  Would she get a dendrite growth.  Ga-ross!

This one just reminds me of a joke

JasonWx wrote

Do you have access to the real time EURO?

I know a little German.  He's right over there.