Storm Speculation: Thanksgiving 2011

Possible Thanksgiving Day storm.. Over the last few days the models have been advertising  a Wed or Thanksgiving Day coastal. As of now it looks like it would be snow from the Cats north. It is still 5 or 6 days away so much can still change..

Now that was the good news..

Now the bad.. The long range looks awful. I am having trouble finding any indication on any model, that the current pattern will change..

It's still early..

Saw this last night on AlbanyWxExaminer's Twitter feed:



Lionel Hutz of FIS (and models today?) have the track farther north and a day sooner:

http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/the-annual-pre-thanksgiving-what-the-fk-is-up-with-this-weatherwhen-will-it-snowis-winter-dead-discussion/

He's got the Southern Adks and VT in the wheelhouse.

" Based on Snow:Water Ratio 10:1. "

There's a bone for you weather Gurus to gnaw on. Please explain in more detail.

I gather it's 10 inches of snow for 1 inch of rain.

Is that the normal ratio they use or does it vary? If so what temps/dew point dictate what ratio?

Any idea what temp/dew point yields the most snow....natural.....manmade ?

that is the base ratio...ie: 32 at the surface  30 at 850mb

that ratio will increase with colder temps aloft...

out west i have seen ratio's as high 30 to 1 or higher..during the oct storm we had ratio's as low as 8 to 1

lake effect snows tend to have high ratio's too

From NWS Albany on Mon-Weds:

THINGS GET INTERESTING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AREA. THIS HIGH IS OF ARCTIC ORIGIN AND TEMPERATURES TODAY UNDER THE HIGH ARE VERY COLD. IN FACT... MODELS MAY BE UNDER DOING COLD PUSH INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

COLD AIR DRAINS IN FROM NORTH AS OPPOSED TO PASSING OVER RELATIVELY WARM GREAT LAKES WATERS...WHICH MEANS LESS MODIFICATION...SO I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES COLDER THAN FORECAST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF ALBANY. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM IS SUPPOSED TO BRING PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

latest model run is leaning towards a warmer solution for wed/thurs system..it doesn't look like a significant snow event..maybe some snow mixed with rain , then turning very warm later in the period..

looks like we are off to a very slow start

Using Saranac Lake as the location to gauge WF weather,  which I understand is much closer to actual than using Wilmington, appears the nights will be fine, days marginal, and Wed could be a snow event.  

Yes,  another warm up next weekend, but this week at higher elevation actually does allow snowmaking quite a bit

Winter Storm Watches:

latest run is looking colder for the ADK and Central and Northern Greens...I thinks NWS's call for 4 to 8 is on target..

Looks like there will be some Turkey Day turns..

Don't look now but they upped it for NC to 9-12.  I hope something is left when I get out there on Saturday  I can almost taste it....(we need a fingers crossed emoticon)

Warnings were posted early afternoon:

with snow on the ground and highs in the 50's on saturday you might get a burn..lol

5-9 seems generous , i think there will be a fair amount of mixing at the lower elevations..

I am not really worried about the lower elevations.  However, it is 35 degrees here right now and dry.  I can't imagine seeing much rain here in Toga and it should be white by morning with temps this low already.  Gore could get a nice coating but I haven't seen any updates on their snowmaking (but I know that will be another thread...)

Just got this as a fortune cookie.

How many soggy cookies did you have to eat to get that fortune?  Fujative took one for the team.  

Whatever it is has to be a least partially frozen:



There's bound to be some crust in this (in NY) but it's all good IMO.

If I can't ski, I dig watching a winter storm with potential.

Hey guess what ? It's snowing lightly here at exit 18. Half inch so far. 26 degrees out. The snow is only mildly wet.

got about an inch here at 11pm and snowing

"an inch or two down in town, coming down hard"
source from NC.

About an inch in Saratoga. Wet n Heavy. Roads are pretty slippery.

about an inch and a half here off exit 20.  Can't see the grass, there will be turns tomorrow!