Storm Watch: Thursday 12/8

Yes it's far out, but hey..



Lets give them somethin' to talk about

the models are all over the place on this..i won't comment on this till tues

Latest model run seems to be moving this storm track to the northwest:



From NWS ALB:

MODELS ARE TRENDING MORE AND MORE TOWARDS A SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT ... THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO GET COLD ENOUGH FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...

starting to think that the cold air won't get here in time..could be a rain event..this is becoming very frustrating. the models keep flip flopping on when the cold air will arrive and how deep it will be..

"tut-tut, it looks like rain..."

More NWS ALB:

WED NT...MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON WETTER SCENARIO FOR THE REGION...

IT APPEARS THAT P-TYPE MAY START AS RAIN OR A RAIN/SLEET/SNOW MIX...BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW AT PEAK OF F-GEN/FORCING. SO...SOME QPF MAY FALL AS RAIN OR A MIX...WITH PERHAPS A 1-2 HOUR PERIOD OF MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-3 IN/HR ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAINLY S AND E OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

THIS SHOULD YIELD SNOWFALL TOTALS WITHIN THE ADVISORY RANGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TACONICS.

CLOSER TO THE CAPITAL REGION...IT APPEARS 2-4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL SEEMS LIKELY...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT TO THE N/W...WITH GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES ACROSS SARATOGA COUNTY...AND PERHAPS AROUND AN INCH CLOSER TO LAKE GEORGE...WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WEST/CENTRAL MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY.

Lionel has updated his forecast and it is loaded with stoke:

http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/cool-it-bro-seasonal-cold-air-to-return/

Looks like Hunter and Bell are in for 3-8..
Then the cold arrives, we should all be skiing soon..

Catskills looking good for this weekend and next week! According to Windham's website, they're aiming to open Saturday. And yes, I'm pulling my gear out as soon as I get home. <3!!!!!!

NWS has Hunter up for a Warning:


This Afternoon: Periods of rain. High near 41. North wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Tonight: Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 3am. Low around 26. Northwest wind between 9 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible.

Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 34. Breezy, with a west wind between 15 and 21 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph.

I know it's not the most reliable source, but weather.com just bumped up their snow accum forcast for Belleayre to 8-12 inches from 4-6 earlier today...and with temps only getting into the low 30s tomorrow and in the 20s through the weekend, life is looking pretty good!!

The 18z NAM is a bit colder, thus bumping up the numbers seems logical..

Lionel is on it, in his usual warped fashion: http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/delta-force/

ACCUMULATIONS Accumulations remain a challenging call, as a changeover error of as little as an hour later or earlier would mean the difference in a couple of inches of snow or up to six or seven. As of this update, however, it appears a widespread 2"-5" accumulation is likely, with 5"-8" in the Catskills and throughout Berkshire and southern Bennington counties. Locally up to 10" of snow at elevations above 1500' in the Catskills, and up to 12" of snow in the higher elevations of northern Berkshire, Bennington, and Rutland counties in New England.

Checking the radar it looks like there's already some mixed precip creepin in in the higher elevations of the Catskills...perhaps the snow will start earlier than expected... He says hopefully.

Not that I'm staring at it and refreshing the page every 5 minutes while I should be working or anything...

11:14- snowing on caroline street, saratoga springs

From what I can find, this has been a total bust..
We all just took what the models spewed out hook line and sinker. I guess we are all just desperate for the snow. As usual if you have to wait for the cold to arrive and turn rain to snow , you get beat. The cold never arrives as fast as the models predict.

on top of it , it is not going to get as cold as earlier thought and we are in for another warm up early next week..