Winter Weather 2019-2020

yep the tea leaves finally bring in some colder air

Here's a fantastic explain of this weekend's storm in the West: Powder Chaser Forecast

excellent, thanks for posting
my daughter was in Glacier NP last week..good timing

Right now in 12804 I’m sitting outside in 69 degrees. Beautiful evening for the end of September.

My house is at the lower bound of the snow level (3.5k).  I suspect there is significantly more snow up at the ski area.

 

4PM Shot... still snowing heavily but accumulations are being limited by the warm soil... still in the 50's on the ground.

The Larches are looking pretty stressed.

 

Looks like the Rockies are going to get another big dump. This could be the start of an epic season.  Cold weather here is coming fast.

With the current nor’easter/bomb cyclone and all.....it’s snowing pretty good on Whiteface!  Sure, it’ll melt before long, but nice to see.

when i saw this i had to go on fb and sure enough Ron Kon with the first "turns", brought a smile to my face and a tingle to my loins. no blue on the ny radar though :(

My loins trembled as well

We added 4 longer term maps to the main weather page, second row below.  Obviously not looking ideal right now.



I found myself seeking these out several days in a row, so I added them:

https://nyskiblog.com/weather/

Maps expand on click on that ^^ page.

I guess I don't understand how to read these maps.

There's a 30-40% chance that temps will be above normal in 1 month and 3 months?

Doesn't that mean that there's a 60-70% chance that temps will either be normal or below normal?

MC2 5678F589 wrote

I guess I don't understand how to read these maps.

There's a 30-40% chance that temps will be above normal in 1 month and 3 months?

Doesn't that mean that there's a 60-70% chance that temps will either be normal or below normal?

For once...I approve of your optimism. I was just thinking the same thing.

Just remember

Brown Bad
Blue Good

I understand that... And I believe it for the short term ones because they are darker colors corresponding to 70-90% chances. I'm just looking at the numbers on the colors for the 1-3 month forecasts.

Harvey wrote

Just remember

Brown Bad
Blue Good

here's the rub..very dark blue usually means cold and dry...the sweet spot is the lighter blue...

that said the long rang is usually wrong anyway..

JasonWx wrote

that said the long rang is usually wrong anyway..

Yeah, I'm really struggling to see the value of the longer term maps. They're just speculation, right?

totally...

I was trying to be funny.

The white means 50/50 chance of cold or warm (compared to average), lightest brown means 60/40 on the warm side etc.  The maps are as legit as any long term forecast.  Everyone raves about rebecca, do you think she is better on the long term than NOAA?

IMO Eastern skiers are looking for blue to be drapped across the central or eastern US implying a storm track that keeps storm south and east, but not too far south and east. A bit like the 6-10 day above.

Last year Rebecca on Facebook nailed every storm like 90 percent.
Here what she says for November
A quick look at the weather over the next few days.

I had snow on the ground this morning.  Still have some where it drifted. I'm sure, those in the Adirondacks and higher elevations on northern New England saw the same.  High winds and heavy rainfall lead to lots of wind and flooding problems across the region. Winds are diminishing, and will continue to do so.

As high pressure move in, tonight will be quite cold.  Saturday will start out cold. But we will see sun during the day. Winds will be light, but the air will still be quite cool.  So beware of icy patches if you're driving around.  A weak cold front along with a little disturbance swings through Saturday night into Sunday. This will  reinforce the cold air that will be in place.  The disturbance will bring rain and higher elevation snow showers to the region, but rain amounts won't be anything like we just went through. We will be dealing with a gusty west wind. With the cold air moving over the warmer waters of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario; those downwind of the lakes, can expect lake effect rain, with lake effect snow showers in the higher elevations.

Monday looks nice with seasonal cool temperatures.  Tuesday might start with some sunshine. But then yet another frontal system will approach and move through later Tuesday into Wednesday. Once again we will see rain and higher elevation snow showers, with the colder air filtering in for the end of next week.

Yesterday's and today's storm marks  a pattern change from the warmer October to a colder November. I expect most of November to be much colder than average.