I went back to last years thread and saw that the prediction from Snowbird Bob was pretty close to what we had. Unfortunately I can't find where he did a similar map for this year but he does seem to be buying into the Farmers Almanac's prediction:
The "Wet and wild" seems to be more for the coastal regions where for our area - lots of snow.
It would be nice.
Don't ski the trees, ski the spaces between the trees.
Dorian is going to pull down some cold air from Canada. So will see some fall-like weather move into the area for the rest of the week. This cooler ( more fall-like) northern and eastern Great Lakes into the Northeast for the first half of next week.
But if you're a fan of summer-like weather, don't despair. the weak El Nino of early 2019 remained weak and more or less dissipated in June. ENSO Neutral Conditions are now in place. This mean that neither El Nino or La Nina. This means that other indexes will take more of a front seat. We have that warm ring in the northern Pacific and off the Northwest Coast; we also have these warm SST off the East Coast.
Those should bring cool air into the Northern Plans, Western Great Lakes, into the Midwest. But by the time we get closer to next weekend, I think the Northeast into Mid Atlantic will see some above average warmth. That warmth should go into the rest of September, and most likely into October (at least the first part).
Our region could very well see above average temperatures. Through the 2nd half of September and October. But remember temperatures this time of year, are not the same kind of temperatures we see in July and August. Precipitation For the next 45 days should end up generally above average as well. Those warm SST in the Atlantic and the cool to our west, should setup the same general battleground we've been having for much of 2019.
As far as winter 2019-2020. We most likely will start out warm into the first third, again those warm SST in the Atlantic. But then for the rest of the winter I think we will be at least slightly below average. I see the same general precipitation pattern from this fall, lasting through winter 2019-2010.
Geez, he should at least make a distinction between the Mid-A and southeast states that have ski areas/resorts based on snowmaking from states bordering Florida and Texas. Plus the midwest states with snowmaking.
I've skied fresh powder in VA. But only because I don't have to fly to get to Massanutten at short notice before the roads close in northern VA and NC. ;-)
This is great! (And sadly accurate for every year)
I'm not in the business of making climate predictions, but one thing I'm confident in saying is that powder days south of the Catskills (and sadly, in the Catskills) will decline significantly in the coming years.