Winter Weather 2017-2018

Getting harder to find forecasts that put significant snow on the back end of this thing.  Depending on where and how quickly the fronts move there could be a pretty hard line as to where things are frozen versus wet, and what kind of frozen is a crap shoot for places that are north of the line.  Buckle up!

All of NY:

Rebecca:



The system for Friday and Saturday is very complex. We will have a strong area of low pressure moving along the Appalachians. The track looks to take it over West Virginia and up over New York State. The cold front will be advancing across the Midwest and Great Lakes.

Things will start out as rain; but as the cold front gets closer, rain will change to a mix and then maybe some ice. Here is a map that shows what I think as far as precipitation type. But everything is still in flux. Those in the Pink area will see a mix of sleet, Ice and snow. Right now, I think the area in Purple has the greatest chance of seeing ice / sleet accretion of 0.25 to 0.50. Some of the models are showing ice amounts of over 1 inch; so higher amounts are possible. But those higher amounts will most likely be in the Ohio Valley into Canada. But a shift in track could make a huge difference.

Those in Western, Central, and Northern New York look to be at the most danger of crippling ice (0.50 or more) in spots. The areas in the pink and especially the areas in purple have the risk for power outages.

The combination of rain and melting snow. could lead to ice jam and some minor street flooding in poor drainage areas. where snow may be clogging the storm drains.

Everyone will change to snow on the backside. Those in New England and the Mid Atlantic look to have only a brief period of snow, while areas north and west will see higher accumulations. But if the colder air advances faster, we could end up with some fairly significant snowfall.

My confidence in what I'm saying isn't as high as I would like. But I want to get the word out so you can prepare. Lets hope I'm wrong....I sure do! Timing is up in the air so all of this is subject to change.

The next few days can be summed up in two words.."Shit Show"

JasonWx wrote

The next few days can be summed up in two words.."Shit Show"

Rain, etc..., but I'm actually becoming a lot more optimistic for the weekend, at least for Whiteface and Jay Peak.  

There is a definite trend across literally ALL models to push this east and incrementally south as more sampling takes place.  I think everything will be on land by tomorrow, but I'm getting more optimistic.   If it doesn't pan out perfectly though?  My CCM Tack ice skates would be more useful at Whiteface than my skis this weekend.  Iceface at its' very iciest.

the 18z does have brief period of decent snow..but it also has more rain before..bottom line is it still doesn't look good

so much rain, over 1.50 inches.  YUCK

with the cold air moving in from the NW, Whiteface probably has the best chance to get into accumulating snow before ending.  However, everyone going to get a good inch of rain at least on Friday with temps in the 50s!

I hope this verifies:

http://www.upstatesnow.com/weather/news-story/1-10-2018-get-ready-to-take-a-wild-ride/

Even half of that would be OK

JasonWx wrote

the 18z does have brief period of decent snow..but it also has more rain before..bottom line is it still doesn't look good

The 00z suite (sans ECMWF since it isnt out yet) is moving a bit southeast too.  Call me a wishful thinking, but I think the trend is real.  I really became encouraged earlier today when the Euro caved.  Admittedly, everything has to go perfectly with the upper air layers or it will be some form of frozen "non-snow", but it's looking better and better IMO.  Sunday's now looking cold as ballz though with negative temps!

OpenSnow, which had backed their forecast down to an inch of snow this morning, is back to 8-12 for Whiteface.  Mountain-Forecast had also dramatically cut their snow total this morning and is back to over 20 (optimistic) inches.  There’s a chance, but it’s still a long shot most likely.

Pleeeeaaaaseee!

Whiteface has the best chance, you want to be NW for this "event".  Fingers crossed but tomorrow is UGLY cant spin it any other way

8-12” can cover ugly!

I hope 8-12 for whiteface, but I would hedge toward 4-6!  I am not sure how its going to look after an inch of rain and warm (very warm) temps.  We may also drop 30 degrees in ONE hour, so ice will an issue before the swtich to snow.  I think whiteface moves pretty fast from rain to snow with only brief period of sleet, especially higher elevations.  

trends aren't great 4-6 inches of snow at whiteface after the rain and maybe 2-4 inches at Gore, going to take at least a week to recover at the ski resorts.  

 It just doesn't snow long enough..
i think there will be flooding problem near rivers and streams..not a good situation

Is there a bright side? Mass or NH maybe? Or is the whole region in the same boat?

Maine? Newfoundland?

rain to quebec