COVID 19 impact on skiing

Yeah, I'm kind of proud of myself for that one. It's like high fiving the door. Really high.

My gal is a travel agent that works for one of the largest agencies in the world and I guess sales are down 35% for the month.

Diseases like this are going to have much more far reaching impacts than a lot of people may realize. With a warming climate and an ever growing population there’s going to be a lot more of this every year.

The coronavirus scare may be being blown out of proportion by the media but with a two week incubation period it’s definitely alarming, especially for those with a newborn or the elderly.

I'm planning on driving west in a week or two, but, this is a fluid situation, so every day it's something new. I mean, who would have expected just a month ago that all skiing in northern Italy would be shut down, season over? I'm driving not to avoid planes, but to save money on a rental car and bring a lot of stuff. Dont relish the drive, but, first world problem.
Word from Summit County, where I'll eventually end up, is that crowds haven't diminished (Spring Break). I'm really hoping that isn't the case in a few weeks, but who knows. I have a friend who is in Taos right now. Again, normal crowds (drivable from Texas and Denver), and both flights from Newark full.

Info on the incubation period

There were 181 confirmed cases with identifiable exposure and symptom onset windows to estimate the incubation period of COVID-19. The median incubation period was estimated to be 5.1 days (95% CI, 4.5 to 5.8 days), and 97.5% of those who develop symptoms will do so within 11.5 days (CI, 8.2 to 15.6 days) of infection. These estimates imply that, under conservative assumptions, 101 out of every 10 000 cases (99th percentile, 482) will develop symptoms after 14 days of active monitoring or quarantine.

https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2762808/incubation-period-coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-from-publicly-reported

Are ANY of you medical professionals??  Nope ,didn't think so .

Here is a truism: Opinions are Like Assholes, Everybody's got one .

Listen to medical scientists , NOT bs on a ski forum

I’m not sure how reliable this source is but.....

3 days outside of a host while sitting on a fomite is pretty insane.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3074351/coronavirus-can-travel-twice-far-official-safe-distance-and-stay

warp daddy wrote

Are ANY of you medical professionals??  Nope ,didn't think so .

Here is a truism: Opinions are Like Assholes, Everybody's got one .

Listen to medical scientists , NOT bs on a ski forum

Hey, I’m remaining as skeptical as anyone but nature has a way of balancing things out.

So is it all just media hype or might we be sitting on a cry wolf type of scenario where the damn is really going to blow this time?

Everybody calm down. WD speaks sense today. My iPhone didn’t capture this perfectly. There was some blue and darker reds mixed in but this is still pretty. Everything is going to be ok, eventually.

This reminds me about the theme and overall message of the walking dead series.

raisingarizona wrote

I’m not sure how reliable this source is but.....

3 days outside of a host while sitting on a fomite is pretty insane.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3074351/coronavirus-can-travel-twice-far-official-safe-distance-and-stay

Good to be skeptical about news coming out of China for a little while yet.  Plus that "study" was just based on one person who rode a bus.

The idea of a virus surviving on surfaces for 2-3 days is not new.  That's why airlines are talking about how they clean all surfaces on their planes every night.  And hospitals throw away a lot of stuff instead of trying to clean them.

I'm not a medical professional, but I am a retired research statistician married to a scientist.  Been reading assorted sources from around the world, including the CDC and WHO info.

Two sources of info that are updated often.  One is an interactive map for the world.  The other presents data tables.  Of course, testing processes vary a great deal between countries.  The numbers for the USA jumped in the last couple days as the CDC catches up to confirm all the "presumptive" cases identified by state or local agencies in the last week or so.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

raisingarizona wrote

My gal is a travel agent that works for one of the largest agencies in the world and I guess sales are down 35% for the month.

Diseases like this are going to have much more far reaching impacts than a lot of people may realize. With a warming climate and an ever growing population there’s going to be a lot more of this every year.

The coronavirus scare may be being blown out of proportion by the media but with a two week incubation period it’s definitely alarming, especially for those with a newborn or the elderly.

Most of the deaths have been people over 60 with underlying medical conditions.  No one under age 20 has had serious symptoms that I know of.

Italy is in serious trouble.  As of March 9 there were almost 800 patients who were serious or critical, mostly elderly.  The first cases were found on Jan. 30, 2020.  Can you think of any region the size of Italy with enough hospitals to handle that many patients in an ICU at the same time?

The Italian ski resorts are shut down.  I know a retired couple who are skiing in France.  Were supposed to do the second week in Italy but changed their plans shortly before flying over.

warp daddy wrote

Are ANY of you medical professionals??  Nope ,didn't think so .

Here is a truism: Opinions are Like Assholes, Everybody's got one .

Listen to medical scientists , NOT bs on a ski forum

The thread is about this viral outbreak's effect on the sport of skiing. I don't see anybody talking about medical science, just posting science sources. I know that this is the way some are combatting this disease and it's effects on our neighbors and the world economy, by pushing the narrative that we're all chickens shouting the sky is falling if we even dare approach this incredibly serious subject in any way, and that seems to be coming from the top by a leader who has one concern, and that's four more years. I mean, who knows, this may be all not much of a whoop, but, when an entire first world country in Europe is essentially shut down due to all this, our new Detroit, i.e., China is not producing, and markets are now a breath away from bear territory in only a month, I call it a big whoop.

Read some history. We made some serious mistakes when the 1918 flu was spreading, on the way to killing millions and millions worldwide. History is rhyming right now.

On Sunday, I skied Prospect Mountain in VT with a friend.  Driving home in the afternoon, the Thruway was awfully quiet.  Except for the people without the sense to keep right.

Concerned, but still heading to Lake Placid this weekend.  Prepare but don't panic.

Clearly the impact of COVID-19 is being felt by ski resorts.  SAM (Ski Area Management) put out a special article on March 9.  Includes specific suggestions with the following headings:

Sanitation policies.
Cancellation policies.
Staff policies.
Stay current.
Finally, communicate.

First sentence: "Whether you think the concern—even panic—over COVID-19 is warranted or not is immaterial. The fact is that it’s the leading worldwide story, and it’s likely to stay that way for a while."

Last sentence: "We suggest planning your actions today based upon how you want your clientele to view you once this crisis has passed."

We got a fun email from North Wood School an hour ago informing the parents and athletes that they have cancelled the balance of their winter sports season effectively immediately.  This was 15 mins before vans were scheduled to leave for races in Sugarloaf for the women and Gore for the men.  They also cancelled the Hockey season including home games their trip to Nationals.

Chaos ensued for about an hour and then a plan came together for the boys to race anyway at Gore and ignore NW's edict from on high.  Not sure what the girls decided to do at this point as their race is much farther away.  The hockey kids are screwed as they have no other option.

Huge overaction on NW's part and handled and communicated incredibly stupidly.

And in the incredibly stupid category Essex County has declared a state of emergency proactively before a single case has shown up in the county.

Z wrote

We got a fun email from North Wood School an hour ago informing the parents and athletes that they have cancelled the balance of their winter sports season effectively immediately.  This was 15 mins before vans were scheduled to leave for races in Sugarloaf for the women and Gore for the men.  They also cancelled the Hockey season including home games their trip to Nationals.

Chaos ensued for about an hour and then a plan came together for the boys to race anyway at Gore and ignore NW's edict from on high.  Not sure what the girls decided to do at this point as their race is much farther away.  The hockey kids are screwed as they have no other option.

Huge overaction on NW's part and handled and communicated incredibly stupidly.

And in the incredibly stupid category Essex County has declared a state of emergency proactively before a single case has shown up in the county.

Wow!  Meanwhile in Sacramento they are giving up on 14-day quarantine for close contact only now that "community spread" is the reality.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/10/813990993/coronavirus-sacramento-county-gives-up-on-automatic-14-day-quarantines

By the way, Harvard has told all their students that they have 5 days to leave campus.  The rest of the semester will be handled with online classes.  But Boston has a major cluster because of the Biogen meeting in a downtown hotel in late February.  Also heard that Stanford and UC Berkeley are going that way too.

EDIT:  Cornell is moving to online classes with most students staying at home after spring break.  Thought to look because my daughter's NCS classmate who graduated from Northwood in 2019 is attending Cornell.

You can add SU to the list of schools going to online courses. Spoke with a couple SUNY Cortland kids this morning, they feel all SUNY schools will soon be following suit. Both of them feel as though this is foolish as well as they are upset they can't be on campus if it happens. This is their last semester so I can certainly understand where they are coming from.

campgottagopee wrote

You can add SU to the list of schools going to online courses. Spoke with a couple SUNY Cortland kids this morning, they feel all SUNY schools will soon be following suit. Both of them feel as though this is foolish as well as they are upset they can't be on campus if it happens. This is their last semester so I can certainly understand where they are coming from.

If you read reliable sources:

1) the number of confirmed cases is maybe around 10% of what’s actually out there based on math models based on similar outbreaks.
2) the increase curve is exponential.
3) the US is doing almost no testing compare to other countries. South Korea should be our model
4) by the end of April our health care system will be overwhelmed.

Even the low end projections are alarming. Our best course is to slow the spread. But many people still think this is no big deal.

Instead of following hunches, or listening to our friends brothers sister who is a nurse, we should listen to science and math.

I cancelled my trip to Big Sky - not just because of the virus. Been battling bronchitis and breathing issues for several weeks and felt like I was already compromised from an immunity standpoint.

My wife is a RN in our local hospital, she works right along side MD's all day long. According to them (RN's and MD's) this is being blown way out of proportion. Wash your hands. You know, good personal hygiene.

We're doing our part here at work: at 10, 2, and 4 all door handles are getting wiped down with Lysol.

Unless I get hit by a bus I'm going to FL in 3 weeks.