Fall Weather 2019

Wow, that almost makes me wish I was spending this week at the in-laws in Scottsdale.

My son's place in Boulder. Looks like at least a foot.

^^SWEET.

Read a nice analysis of the long term forecast for this winter, lack of polar ice, breakouts of the polar vortex and a solar minimum all add up to a bumper snow year for the NE. We'll see if it pans out.

Jason tell us about Sunday and Monday?  Please

Harvey wrote

Jason tell us about Sunday and Monday?  Please

as of now the GFS has basically killed it..

looks like a light snow event at best for VT on east..
that said it's only Wed and a lot can change..

Ok, so now where do we stand? Where does one ski on Saturday, on Sunday, and then on Monday? Talk to me.

NWS still has it.  They are calling it plowable/shovelable.

I'm going to ski where I have a pass I think.

What about you Johnny?

Just committed to Gore Saturday,(like, as relatives who just left asked wtf we are doing) Sunday /Monday is still open for me.

Johnnyonthespot wrote

Just committed to Gore Saturday,(like, as relatives who just left asked wtf we are doing) Sunday /Monday is still open for me.

I’ll wait any see what develops, looks like precip Sun/Mon but how much & where?? South looks better but I’m not traveling for it.

Me likey.

From very reliable weather source Jessica Facebook
https://m.facebook.com/rebeccanortheastweather/?tsid=0.3873143810869992&source=result
I hope all y'all had an enjoyable Thanksgiving

Today will be dry, but cold and a bit breezy.  Friday will start out Okay, but a storm will be in the Midwest. This storm is currently on a track similar to many of the other storms of late, but the setup is a little different.  We’re going to have blocking high pressure in Eastern Canada back into the Great Lakes. This is going to force our storm’s energy to turn south and east.  The transfer of energy will allow a secondary storm to form off the Mid Atlantic Coast.  This transfer looks to start later Sunday morning.

The track and extent of the cold air will be a major factor in who sees what. But based on a blend of the American and European models…. this is looking very possible.

The General Idea:

Rain will move into southwest Pennsylvania late Saturday afternoon/evening into Saturday night. During the overnight (1-2 AM) Sunday morning, rain will change over to freezing rain (ZR) for western into central Pennsylvania (southwest Pennsylvania and Pittsburgh should see mainly rain). As we move into Sunday morning ZR will be falling over Northern Pennsylvania into western New York State.  The ZR looks to fall for several hours. This could lead to quite a bit of ice accretion (0.10 to 0.25 inches with localized amounts of 0.50 inches).

During the afternoon snow will be falling over interior New York State, Vermont, into New Hampshire.  and most of southern New England. By Sunday night the coastal low will be wrapping up. And banding will be setting up, right now that looks to be across the eastern Mohawk Valley, the New York Capital District, and across Massachusetts, and most likely back into Northwest Pennsylvania and Southwest New York State (South and east of Syracuse and Utica) (Poconos and the Catskills 6+).

The storm will last through Monday into Tuesday morning.  Parts of Eastern New York State (around Albany could be the jackpot), back into Northwest Pennsylvania (Scranton), Southern Vermont Southern New Hampshire, Southern Maine, Massachusetts (Boston 6+) and parts of northern Connecticut look to see fairly significant and plowable snow (6 to 12+ inches).  Snow amounts west and north of these areas will see lower amounts, but areas like State College and the Finger Lakes will still most likely end up with some snow.  Northern New York State, northern Vermont, northern New Hampshire, and northern Maine will see lesser amounts than those to the south.

This is all subject to change as things evolve.

This is based on my analysis, for official information go to your local NWS website.

I will have more later this evening and tomorrow.

Winter Storm Watch is up:

Don't want snow at Killington - worldcuppers want ice, not snow.

Looks like a good storm for the Catskills, Magic might also get a decent amount (should help them get open next weekend).

the timing of this system couldn't be worse..

on monday morning I have a big sysco order that comes out of Albany

Cosmo... can you get me a link for that map. It's awesome, want to include it here:

https://nyskiblog.com/weather/new-york/

EDIT:  Found it!

https://www.weather.gov/images/aly/winter/StormTotalSnowWeb_NYMACTVT.png

Jason... what's your call on the northern edge? Also when will the storm stop in the Cats?

this storm is a mess..really 2 storms
and anyone the tells you they have a handle on it is lying..

there will be snow / rain/ mix all the way to the cats..but there  should be 6+ for the cats ..   there is a tongue of warm air aloft  that will present a issue...