Read a nice analysis of the long term forecast for this winter, lack of polar ice, breakouts of the polar vortex and a solar minimum all add up to a bumper snow year for the NE. We'll see if it pans out.
Don't ski the trees, ski the spaces between the trees.
Today will be dry, but cold and a bit breezy. Friday will start out Okay, but a storm will be in the Midwest. This storm is currently on a track similar to many of the other storms of late, but the setup is a little different. We’re going to have blocking high pressure in Eastern Canada back into the Great Lakes. This is going to force our storm’s energy to turn south and east. The transfer of energy will allow a secondary storm to form off the Mid Atlantic Coast. This transfer looks to start later Sunday morning.
The track and extent of the cold air will be a major factor in who sees what. But based on a blend of the American and European models…. this is looking very possible.
The General Idea:
Rain will move into southwest Pennsylvania late Saturday afternoon/evening into Saturday night. During the overnight (1-2 AM) Sunday morning, rain will change over to freezing rain (ZR) for western into central Pennsylvania (southwest Pennsylvania and Pittsburgh should see mainly rain). As we move into Sunday morning ZR will be falling over Northern Pennsylvania into western New York State. The ZR looks to fall for several hours. This could lead to quite a bit of ice accretion (0.10 to 0.25 inches with localized amounts of 0.50 inches).
During the afternoon snow will be falling over interior New York State, Vermont, into New Hampshire. and most of southern New England. By Sunday night the coastal low will be wrapping up. And banding will be setting up, right now that looks to be across the eastern Mohawk Valley, the New York Capital District, and across Massachusetts, and most likely back into Northwest Pennsylvania and Southwest New York State (South and east of Syracuse and Utica) (Poconos and the Catskills 6+).
The storm will last through Monday into Tuesday morning. Parts of Eastern New York State (around Albany could be the jackpot), back into Northwest Pennsylvania (Scranton), Southern Vermont Southern New Hampshire, Southern Maine, Massachusetts (Boston 6+) and parts of northern Connecticut look to see fairly significant and plowable snow (6 to 12+ inches). Snow amounts west and north of these areas will see lower amounts, but areas like State College and the Finger Lakes will still most likely end up with some snow. Northern New York State, northern Vermont, northern New Hampshire, and northern Maine will see lesser amounts than those to the south.
This is all subject to change as things evolve.
This is based on my analysis, for official information go to your local NWS website.