Long Term Prognostication: Winter 2011-12

I hope Darrin at ADK Weathersite is wrong on the storm for tonight, 12/27/11. Unfortunately the guy has been quite accurate in the past, we can only hope he blows this one, we NEED SNOW  in a big way.

Look what I found on the weather page. First time I've seen a map like this in MONTHS. Since the summer.

Bastardi is a major blowhard. I didn't realize it until I started following him on Twitter.

And you have to fish through TONS of partisan political crap to get his take on long term weather trends.

Yet I continue to follow:

its about gosh darn time this winter turned itself around

06-07 turned out ok after a terrible start so lets hope this is true

Some hope for post-MLK.
The Pattern is Changing and Winter May Be on the Way!

http://www.adirondackweathersite.com/2012/01/from-death-pattern-to-pulse-of-life-for.html

not buying it....I have been suckered into the long range all season..
I'm resigned to the fact that this is the winter that wasn't...

Fine, you be like that and I will enjoy what we have!

JasonWx wrote

I'm resigned to the fact that this is the winter that wasn't...

That is a bit mellow dramatic, don't you think? We certainly had a tough start, the toughest start in as long as I can remember. But things have rebounded quite nicely. We now have two VT areas 100% open (Bush and MRG) with many chasing +90%. The Mansfield stake is now only seven inches below average (compared to 20 below in December). In my neck of the woods, Cannon has almost all non-gladed terrain open. It certainly could be a lot worse. Skiing winter isn't even half over. We got at least another month before calling this the winter that wasn't.

Agree RIV !!!!!!!!!!!!  Just back from several days @ Tremblant ( will do full TR and pics later ) and it was loaded with powder . All trails totally smothered with blower . Snow on the roofs as u will see later on was at least 2 ft deep and the Quebecois build some fairly steep roofs

My regional has been 100 % open for 3 weeks now and b4 that was still side to side and plenty of base -- so it 's just a LATE start but damn it's FINE skiing .

Tremblant once again was da bomb cept you had to be a 3-4 layer player

-- 4 below zero F on top with strong winds 25 mph created serious windchill  bit DAMN it was fine skiing  

When it rains to the Canadian border tomorrow..The I don't think there will be to many smiles..

I agree. Jason - it's way too early to give up on the season.  (Who hasn't had at least SOME fun so far?)

Josh Fox's latest:

http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/2012/01/mild-upcoming-week-perhaps-not-as-bad.html

i just ran the 12z GFS..the long rang isn't as desperate, this week is shot..not a burner but nothing worth talking  about..
snow, 50 degs, snow, 45 degs is starting to wear me down...

woke up this am and snow in my yard it pretty much gone

I feel like crying.  This season sucks.  where is the big dump?  We are like 2 weeks from WF shutting snow making down and we are screwed if it doesn't snow soon.  Forget the slides we will be lucky to see the st patricks day the way this is going

the new 06z run is starting to jerk around with us again..it is showing a very cold pattern for the east coast in the long range..
it's been doing this all season long..maybe this one will be true

I'm hoping there is some fresh powder this weekend

After reading some discussions, written by meteorologist that forecast for commodities brokers - this winter is about done..Basically they said, we will have a few days here and there of cold weather and maybe some snow. But basically, a cold pattern will not lock in..

The first week of February will probably feature some cold temperatures some of the cold air might be kind of impressive for a few days. As I said last update … I am not in any way ruling out the possibility of a significant snow for at least some portion of northeast U.S. And I have not EVER said ” no more cold “.

But I see nothing at the convince me that the pattern is going to change because just like in the Winter 2001-02 The PV remains in the wrong position and there vast majority of the model data keeps the Polar vortex in that position on the wrong side of the globe.

On Jan 26 Darrin agreed with that assessment:

http://www.adirondackweathersite.com/2012/01/nothing-new-under-sun.html

but today, Josh Fox doesn't:

http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/2012/01/no-more-consolation-prizes-pattern.html

Skiers had better get used to the concept that this season isn't likely to get much better.  The long term outlook no longer includes a pattern change, just a continuation of wamer than average temperatures with little  significant snow.  The window for snow making crews to expand terrain will be closing very soon, and efforts for the remainder of the season will focus instead on re-surfacing and building base on existing trails.  It simply does not make sense for ski areas to literally spread their resources thinner.  For Gore, that means this may be a season with no Rumor, no Chatiemac, no Darkside, no Ski Bowl, no glades, and early closure of terrain at BR and the North side.  Sorry, that's just the reality of this season.