Long Term Prognostication: Winter 2011-12

Are we seeing hints that the heat wave may be subsiding?

Compared to these images the long term temps forecast looks a little better:



Wild about Weather seems to be predicting a turn on the various "teleconnections."



Can anyone lend some insight (or even better some reasons to be optimistic)?

http://www.adirondackweathersite.com/2011/12/some-hope-for-snow-lovers-next-week.html

I have never seen such a horrible Dec. From Coast to Coast conditions are awful. The kicker is the models offer no real help in the future. Things might not change til after the New Year.
The Euro does develop said split flow, but the GFS kind of poo poo's it..
Very depressing....

wrote

If the timing holds, we could be looking at a winter storm sometime next week between the 19th and 21st

Awesome, right between my last day of class and first final...

The GFS shows no sign of winter event on the 20/21..It brings a low to Great Lakes which means rain for the NE. Sorry for all the bad news

Accuweather seems to be standing behind the idea of potential for next week:



...seemed a little early for a storm speculation thread.

It's foolish to talk about a event that might happen that far out. It might be safe to say, the weather is looking up for the east. After Wed and Thursday's rain event temp will be trending colder and should stay that way..

Single Chair Weather Blog:

http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/2011/12/encouraging-signs-in-some-of-ensemble.html

Here's the most encouraging part of the post:

"Tuesday is important because if we can get some snow or even sleet out of that system, the stage will get brighter. The European Ensemble which has been accurately predicting almost tropical weather for the northeast over the past 3-4 weeks is finally showing some key changes starting in the middle of next week. It is not total vindication but the pattern will get an important boost from at least the temporary establishment of a western North American upper ridge. This should send some rather impressive shots of cold deep into the U.S. as we approach Christmas. The polar vortex in Alaska will also weaken at this point allowing the Jet in the Pacific to relax."

After looking at the last 3 runs. It might be safe to say that this might go down as the worst Dec on record. Also it's not  eastern problem. It stinks everywhere , the only place with reasonable conditions is Whistler.

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Buried in the NWS Albany LONG TERM Forecast are some pretty interesting things.

The forecast is long and VERY DENSE so I pulled out the juicy NUGGETS.

FYI the "cape code benchmark" refers to the fact that if a strong coastal low passes right over the cape, the Albany forecast areas is in a good position for snow:

"extended forecast looks very active"

"multiple coastal waves impacting all or portions of the forecast late in week...and through the holiday weekend."

"Thu night... light snow north and west before the colder air moves in from aloft..."

"Holiday weekend... brings a double barrel sfc low pressure system towards the region on saturday with a rain-snow mix Saturday night from aly south...and snow for the interior."

"..cape cod benchmark..."

"Christmas eve...Over running pcpn begins...mainly rain to snow south of aly...And snow for the interior...as the low deepens and intensifies christmas pm into the evening..."

"As it reaches the favored cape cod benchmark by 06z/mon....at least a moderate snow event could be even more significant for most of the aly fcst area... It does appear at least light snow may occur Christmas eve into christmas."

"Sunday night into monday...chance of snow showers...temps may actually fall below normal for next week."

A far less optimistic view:
Don't believe the snake oil salesman

Hmm, link not working so there you go:
http://www.adirondackweathersite.com/2011/12/dont-believe-snake-oil-salesman.html

frosty wrote

Hmm, link not working so there you go:
http://www.adirondackweathersite.com/2011/12/dont-believe-snake-oil-salesman.html

Frosty re the link not working - just an overwhelmed site admin slacking.  (It's spam control - I need to add users to the list of those who can link and somehow I missed your registration.)

Re: Adirondack Weather Site - I follow it and highly recommend it.  Even when the NOA isn't going our way.

Finally the truth..many kudos to that forecast..

JasonWx wrote

Finally the truth..many kudos to that forecast..

Jason ... does this mean you haven't been telling us the truth?

i always tell the truth..problem is no one wants to listen..

Harvey44 wrote

Frosty re the link not working - just an overwhelmed site admin slacking.  (It's spam control - I need to add users to the list of those who can link and somehow I missed your registration.)

The registration process itself should be your spam control.  A forum in which registered users are unable to post links is a bit heavy-handed don't you think?  Besides it is ineffective as a non-linking user could just post the text of the link.  You make the point yourself that you were going to add me as a linker, even though you had no way of knowing whether I was really a spammer or not.  You might as well also block the ability to upload images, as a spammer might upload an image that was an advertisement for Killington or Columbia Sportswear or whatever.

If a spammer somehow gets past the registration process, shouldn't the forum moderator or administrator simply delete the spam post or even ban that user?  It's your forum, but that's my 2 cents.

frosty wrote

The registration process itself should be your spam control....If a spammer somehow gets past the registration process, shouldn't the forum moderator or administrator simply delete the spam post or even ban that user?

Spammers don't just want the web traffic, they also want the links. Banning means nothing to spammers because they'll never use the same email address twice. They register, post and are gone.

On this forum, the bulk of spam comments come overnight. (Seems like many come from overseas.) In the morning, I'll see a new forum member, and say three spammy links.  I delete and ban. And all the spam we get is human, no bots.  People actually register, activate registration and spam and then move on.

I'm trying to make it harder to spam us.  I thought about putting it in the registration email ... something like "linking will be approved by the moderator within 24 hrs."  To me that seems heavy handed, but I bet many spammers would read that and say forget it.

The linking priv thing isn't really hard. I can tell after one post whether someone is a spammer. Frosty, your first post was in the long term weather thread, and it was a link to Adirondack Weather Site.  No spammer is paying close enough attention to do that.  

In your case I just missed the fact that you registered.  It's the first one I missed, I think.  If that was a bummer I apologize. Anyway you are set now, sorry for the inconvenience.

Please if anyone is having trouble linking, please email me.

Sorry for the thread drift. Now back to our crappy long term weather.

Harvey44 wrote

Jason ... does this mean you haven't been telling us the truth?

Actually Jason's winter outlook has been realistic and reserved all along.

Here's a nice explanation from NOAA about why AO+ is causing our poor start to winter:
Arctic Oscillation favoring mild eastern winter