Market Philosophy: What You Got?

Thanks to both you Ptex and Campster, and Do keep sharing your knowledge P.  

We need to see the entire mosaic of thoughts .

Anyone buying today?

I’m not sure we are out of the woods yet?

Z wrote

Anyone buying today?

I’m not sure we are out of the woods yet?

Sure as hell not buying - I'm riding the wave as it crashes into shore...
Things do look a little better today market wise. Large sectors of the economy are moving. I don't even want to look what my current position is, my guys may have saved my bacon or they may have cooked it or they may turn it into Prime Rib - who knows, at this point who cares - we just gotta get through it.

I thought about it but didn’t buy

I did take the opportunity to sell off my reits as all those renters and restaurants that can’t pay rent are going to hammered those going forward

I have an advisor to handle about half my stuff but I’m thinking of doing what Ptex does and hand it all over because this couple weeks has been exhausting watching the market

Z wrote

I have an advisor to handle about half my stuff but I’m thinking of doing what Ptex does and hand it all over because this couple weeks has been exhausting watching the market

Do it! You may pay a good manager a bit more but if their good it’s a no brained. Usually the rates drop at higher investment levels.

Looking like 18k on the Dow was the bottom

Bought a small position in Roche this morning

New jobless claims, 1969 to present:

The market had priced in 4 million new jobless claims I read so when it came in lower and with the recovery bill passes the Senate it is now up 1100 on the day

Z wrote

The market had priced in 4 million new jobless claims I read so when it came in lower and with the recovery bill passes the Senate it is now up 1100 on the day

I think "the market" recognizes that more numbers are coming out next Thursday, but maybe it doesn't

From the technical analysis it looks like the upside resistance is Dow22400.  It will bounce around btw 21800 and there for the next couple weeks is my take from what I’ve read.  

Everyone knows the unployment numbers will be huge but the stimulus bill pretty much negates that for the next couple months

I think the market will trade in the low 20 for the next 3- 5yrs

It is foolish to think that when this is over, we will just start up were we left off.  Many of those jobs that were lost will not be back for a long time.

How does the Hotel industry come back from this?  We will all be germaphobes , I know I wouldn't what to sleep in a bed that 1000 other people have used..

We have a friend who's business is based around the NYC hospitality industry. His payroll was 350k per week..He laid off all most everyone..If he survives how many people will he hire back?

This will be a long long slog back..

I wonder if this will trigger permanent relocations from NYC to suburbia like after 9/11. Real estate bubble next spring?

Johnnyonthespot wrote

I wonder if this will trigger permanent relocations from NYC to suburbia like after 9/11. Real estate bubble next spring?

Yup.
After 9/11 a client who worked at NYU on 14th St told me she was gonna move "as far away as possible."  She ended up at Columbia on 116th St. Corona is gonna make city people become hermits in Lowville.

mm

100 blocks isn't necessarily my neck of the woods. I was hoping a migration north will help with all the extra inventory from people retiring out of state.

Johnnyonthespot wrote

100 blocks isn't necessarily my neck of the woods. I was hoping a migration north will help with all the extra inventory from people retiring out of state.

My point was that after 9/11 people only wanted to get out north of mid-town. After corona they will want to hide out in the wilderness. Hamilton county real estate is gonna go wild.

mm

Got a beautiful home on the St Lawrence " i CAN see Canada from here ". Extremely LOW density only 100 K in the third largest ( land mass ) county east. Of the Mississippi ...any takers ??  

The Bear Market that followed the 1957 crash triggered by the Asian Flu didn’t last anywhere near that long, and the markets back then were probably more tied to fundamentals than the crazy market of the past few years.  Trying to predict what the markets are going to do seems like pure folly!  I’m guessing you are wrong on your 3-5 year outlook, and things will come back quicker.....but who knows!

"Drinkin' champagne on ice
In just another roll of the dice"

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=roll+of+the+dice+youtube&view=detail&mid=8677BC9B460FCD1016698677BC9B460FCD101669&FORM=VIRE

Milo Maltbie wrote

 Corona is gonna make city people become hermits in Lowville.

mm

....

Milo Maltbie wrote

. Hamilton county real estate is gonna go wild.

mm

....
I just don't see it.

I don't know why people will go through this and say: "I actually want to be *even further* from services and hospitals!"

No stop lights or pharmacies in Hamilton county. Not much real estate as APA rules kept that down.
Blackfly season should start when weather warms up, not to mention it's been known to snow a bit.
There's probably some of these waking up too now.
https://www.northcentralpa.com/life/outdoors/massive-black-bear-hit-in-potter-county/article_dacb6bb2-702f-11ea-ade5-2faaf4ddc751.html