Peak Resorts Reports Results

snoloco wrote

Now anyone that criticized me for saying that Hunter would help pay off their debts, I accept your apologies.

I'm sorry....that you feel the need to be so annoying and self righteous...

Looks like their stock took a dive.  Checked in the morning and it was 3.17, now it's 3.03.

http://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Peak+Resorts+(SKIS)+Gets+Nod+for+Mount+Snow+EB-5+Project/11674841.html

Well that's certainly good news for them.  The project will likely be delayed, but getting it done will make Mount Snow and Peak Resorts much more competitive in Southern Vermont.

snoloco wrote

Well that's certainly good news for them.  The project will likely be delayed, but getting it done will make Mount Snow and Peak Resorts much more competitive in Southern Vermont.

Sno, your post gave me some thought. The southern Vt. market is already quite competitive....Mt. Snow probably is already at the top of the heap. A few questions:

1) Who has the most skier visits is southern Vt.?  

2) How many more skier visits are projected after the snowmaking/lodge upgrade?  I don't see it changing that drastically.  

I'm pretty sure Okemo gets the most visits in Southern Vermont.  

Mount Snow might gain more visits around Christmas if more of their terrain is open.  While some of you might not really care about man made snow one month into the season, that's where the money is.  Get all the lifts and as many of the trails  possible open, pack the place to capacity, and pocket the profits.

Mount Snow being paired with Hunter could get them some visits that might've gone to Stratton or Okemo.

1. Okemo  - about 600k
2. Mt Snow  - about 500k
3. Stratton - about 450k

Lodge plus 150 residential units at Carinthia Base and up to 900 units:

"Mount Snow’s master plan, approved by the state of Vermont, includes the development of up to 900 residential units and 200,000 square feet of commercial space.  The first future project will be the development of up to 150 residential units at the Carinthia Base Area.  These units will be luxury mostly two- and three-bedroom units at the base of Carinthia, with the Carinthia Ski Lodge as the hub of activity.  Amenities for these residential units will include an outdoor swimming pool, hot tubs, an ice skating rink and indoor exercise facility.

Following the development at Carinthia, projects will take place in the Main Base Area of Mount Snow and the Sundance/Snow Lake Area of Mount Snow.  The Main Base Area includes up to 200 residential units and several skier service buildings; the Sundance/Snow Lake area includes approximately 500 residential units.  All units are ski in/ski out units."

http://mountsnoweb5.com/future-projects/

Peak's stock bounced nicely this morning as a result of the EB5 approval.  It's up about a buck to $4.30.  Probably a pretty good time to short it as it's bound to take a dive when 4th quarter results are released (around June 15).  Sell a thousand shares short at $4.30, buy to cover when the share price revisits the $3.25 range and you've paid for next season's Gore/WF pass and a nice Cloudsplitter bar tab.

Update:
http://www.newenglandskiindustry.com/viewstory.php?storyid=457

That's not a pretty picture.  Looks like improvements are off the table for a couple years. A lot of pressure to cut expenses.

paying interest on their debt of over 11% - ouch

Sno you may not bee seeing the snow making levels you demand this season

It'll be interesting to see how much their stock plummets once the markets open.

If they don't make a lot of snow, they're going to lose visitors, especially for Christmas, so I can't see them cutting back too much there.  I think most of the cost cutting will be from deferred capital improvements, although Mount Snow's EB-5 snowmaking project was approved.

snoloco wrote

It'll be interesting to see how much their stock plummets once the markets open.

Buy on the dips sno!

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maybe Sno Dad will buy Hunter after Peak goes belly up and Sno can carpet bomb snow making before Xmas to his hearts content then bankrupt Sno Dad

Didn't that article say their investors were pulling out of that project?

Dude I am in awe... shorting Peak!

Sno... when Mt Sno and Hunter don't have all pods open by Christmas ... Jeff is your man!

Brownski:  The project you were thinking of might be the South Face Village at Okemo (not a Peak Resorts property).  They were required to allow investors to pull out of that.  The project at Mount Snow included both snowmaking and real estate.  It was stopped after the Jay Peak Ponzi Scheme was busted, but later approved to restart.  

The snowmaking portion has been mostly completed already, and the real estate portion has not been started.  My guess is within the next few years they pull together the money to finish the snowmaking project, but they might cancel the real estate project.  Since the snowmaking project has already been started, it has to be finished at some point.

Harvey and Z:  Hunter has, in all but last year opened every lift by Christmas.  They're the best equipped mountain to do it, and it's why they typically do so well that week.  Mount Snow typically gets it done as well.  I'm sure you won't see snowmaking plans be more aggressive that in past years, but Mount Snow and Hunter will most certainly outperform ORDA in early season snowmaking, as they always do.

When the choice becomes make a loan payment or blow snow and default on your debt service you will see that reality trumps a teenagers unrealistic expectations