Storm Speculation: 12/22/13

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This one ain't looking so pertty..The low goes up the St Lawrence..Still may days away, Hopefully will trend south and east

New 12 GFS paints a very ugly picture for this weekend..Lets hope it's wrong..

Clipper before then might be nice, though.

In all seriousness, a little warm up and a mix, followed by a hard freeze might be real nice to solidify a nice base in the woods... As long as the rain isn't too soaking, it might be pretty perfect.

Many moons ago I went Heli skiing in BC, the guides were praying for a soaking rain to solidify the base..

Time will tell with this system

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No, I had to bail early. Plus I heard earlier that there wasn't any free beer this year! Please tell me that wasn't true!

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Yeah, the food is always good at those things. I wanted to stay, but you know, commitments...

Looks like we may be in the bullseye up here along the river for 6-12 , we'll see?

You're making the call six days out while the models are still arguing about it?  Bold.

Bold ???  Hell Yeah, NJ. , why not ????   I call all this  prognosticating stuff, weather guessing anyhoo;)

I think it's sort of cool that these models can sniff out events 6,8 even 10 days or more before they hit.  Sure they're fuzzy on specifics (including really important ones from a practical point of view, like precip type) but the fact that they even can forecast that something will impact the area that far away blows my mind.

I agree. Without the advance notice on this past weekend's storm I wouldn't have been skiing.  The long range is the thing that gives me a shot a new snow.

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I think the long range does a good job with the Long Wave pattern. This weekends R event has was being advertised many days ago.
A cut off low in the south west is usually the kiss of death for the north east..

DackerDan wrote

The models have such huge error bands that more than a day or two out it's like rolling dice in Vegas.

That's not true.  Not even a little bit.

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DackerDan wrote

Ok, you caught me- I lied.

Holy shit. I've never seen this in a forum before. Someone actually admitted they were wrong? I'm surprised the internet didn't explode.

mattchuck2 wrote

DackerDan wrote

Ok, you caught me- I lied.

Holy shit. I've never seen this in a forum before. Someone actually admitted they were wrong? I'm surprised the internet didn't explode.

I think I saw the lights flicker.

Storm does look to be tracking west: