Storm Speculation: 12/26/10

Here's a quick weather update..

I have nothing to update. Seasonably cold and dry for the next 5 days, with the chance of a coastal system Christmas Day..

I kind of like that forecast considering I am headed to FLA this week.  I was looking at the GFS MRF this morning and it has the Christmas storm pretty close to the coast...it's still early and it is going to make for a tough drive home but I would like leftovers at Gore on the 28th

I had to check...I hate getting my hopes up this early but 00Z Mon Dec 27
Santa this is what I want for Christmas....please

From NWS in Albany:

THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO MONDAY IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT NOR`EASTER DURING THIS TIME.

OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE OF THE GFS/GGEM/ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE NOW ALL ON BOARD WITH SHOWING A DEEPENING LOW MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND RECURVING NORTHEAST WHILE IT DEEPENS CONSIDERABLY JUST OFF THE COAST EAST OF NEW JERSEY AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.

WHILE THESE SOLUTIONS POINT TO A STRONG LOW DEVELOPING...THE EXACT TRACK AND THE TIMING ARE HIGHLY IN QUESTION. THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE DEPICTING A TRACK FARTHER EAST OUT TO SEA...WHILE THE OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE SUITE IS SHOWING SOLUTIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THE DIFFERENCES ARE LARGE IN TERMS OF THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS. SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A MAJOR NOR`EASTER WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR OUR AREA.

Post your thoughts, guesses or model interpretation here.

Speculation is the right word here..Most forecasters are a little gun shy about committing to this storm , because of last weeks model disaster.
The models seem to be more consistent with the handling of this system. The Euro has been showing a powerful storm that moves up the coast of of LI and the Cape. The GFS has been flip flopping with a coast huger or a low way out to sea .  
Back to reality, it's only Tuesday. So much can happen between today and Saturday night.
Since this storm can impact a busy Holiday weekend , I will try to update often..
Should be a fun ride...

Harvey44 wrote

Post your thought, guesses or model interpretation here.

To please Ullr, sacrifice is in order.

I'll be in Florida...you guys are going to get blasted...enjoy the Pow but please leave some scraps for me

not that it means anything this far out ..the 12zGFS basically weakens and moves the system way east...a non event..

let the roller coaster ride begin.

on the other hand the 12z EURO developes a monster storm right on the coast.....

just saw ukmet..waiting for 12z euro...

hoping gfs is just acting erratic

he's right, the Euro is massive.....

970 low off Atlantic City...to insane to comprehend

As insane as the Euro has been, I don't believe it. I know a few of you are say what the @*#*# are you thinking.

The GFS is locked on to   keeping the low a million miles off shore .The GFS did a good job with the last system ,once it locked on to keeping off shore too.. So I'm going out on a limb with this one , and predicting a NON event for the NE.. Of course things can change since it's still 5 days out. So as of today that's my take on things..

I welcome all comments and criticism..

There are so many differing models pointing in so many different directions it is like a horse race...pick one and hope it wins.  I don't have much confidence but I hope the Euro wins...and it has it slowing it down too so I can catch a bit of the pow when I get back to Gore on the 28th.  I am looking at the GFS MRF on Unisys and hope it's wrong otherwise we will be wearing shorts on New Years.  Speaking of too far out....

NWS Albany Disc "THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS A SOLUTION THAT WOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL FOR THE AREA."

long range is ugly...

While I certainly hope it stays cold (forever), should be interesting to see if Accuweather's Call from early November verifies.

Does anybody remember exactly when it got cold?

update 12/23
more and more this is looking like a NON event for the mountains....the beach's might get a few flakes

update 12/24

I wish I had better news. The storm still stays out to sea. Northern Maine might see some accumulation and we will have have a stiff northerly wind, for Monday and Tuesday..

Unfortunately things might get really UGLY for New Years weekend...

 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_slp_204m.gif

Update 12/24
Wow the 12z GFS made a move to the west and so did the 18z NAM. What does this mean for the mountains? Unfortunately not much, especially the ADK's. The Greens and Whites and Maine might fair better. It is still to far to the east. NYC and Boston might have some shoveling to do.

If this is the track, big if. Backlash in the Greens and Whites might be significant.

One final note the Euro (ECMWF) move the low further to the east. I'm sure this isn't finished yet.
Also a gully washer is on tap for latter in the period...

I might have egg on my face...big time....big shift to the west..could be a massive event for the catskills and new england..maybe event the ADK's...more later going skiing

The GFS is the furthest west and so far not far enough for the ADKs but you are going to get a good dump in the Catskills