Storm Speculation: 12/26/10

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JasonWx JasonWx
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Storm Speculation: 12/26/10

Here's a quick weather update..

I have nothing to update. Seasonably cold and dry for the next 5 days, with the chance of a coastal system Christmas Day..
"Peace and Love"
sudsnbumps sudsnbumps
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Re: The Weather Thread 10/11

I kind of like that forecast considering I am headed to FLA this week.  I was looking at the GFS MRF this morning and it has the Christmas storm pretty close to the coast...it's still early and it is going to make for a tough drive home but I would like leftovers at Gore on the 28th
Proud to call Gore My Home Mountain
Just another REALLY STRANGE Day in Paradise!
sudsnbumps sudsnbumps
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Re: The Weather Thread 10/11

I had to check...I hate getting my hopes up this early but 00Z Mon Dec 27
Santa this is what I want for Christmas....please
Proud to call Gore My Home Mountain
Just another REALLY STRANGE Day in Paradise!
Harvey Harvey
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Storm Speculation: 12/26/10

From NWS in Albany:

THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO MONDAY IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT NOR`EASTER DURING THIS TIME.

OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE OF THE GFS/GGEM/ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE NOW ALL ON BOARD WITH SHOWING A DEEPENING LOW MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND RECURVING NORTHEAST WHILE IT DEEPENS CONSIDERABLY JUST OFF THE COAST EAST OF NEW JERSEY AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.

WHILE THESE SOLUTIONS POINT TO A STRONG LOW DEVELOPING...THE EXACT TRACK AND THE TIMING ARE HIGHLY IN QUESTION. THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE DEPICTING A TRACK FARTHER EAST OUT TO SEA...WHILE THE OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE SUITE IS SHOWING SOLUTIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THE DIFFERENCES ARE LARGE IN TERMS OF THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS. SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A MAJOR NOR`EASTER WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR OUR AREA.

Post your thoughts, guesses or model interpretation here.
"You just need to go at that shit wide open, hang on, and own it." —Camp
JasonWx JasonWx
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Re: Storm Speculation: 12/25/10

Speculation is the right word here..Most forecasters are a little gun shy about committing to this storm , because of last weeks model disaster.
The models seem to be more consistent with the handling of this system. The Euro has been showing a powerful storm that moves up the coast of of LI and the Cape. The GFS has been flip flopping with a coast huger or a low way out to sea .  
Back to reality, it's only Tuesday. So much can happen between today and Saturday night.
Since this storm can impact a busy Holiday weekend , I will try to update often..
Should be a fun ride...
"Peace and Love"
Denis.N Denis.N
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Re: Storm Speculation: 12/25/10

In reply to this post by Harvey
Harvey44 wrote
Post your thought, guesses or model interpretation here.
To please Ullr, sacrifice is in order.
sudsnbumps sudsnbumps
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Re: Storm Speculation: 12/25/10

I'll be in Florida...you guys are going to get blasted...enjoy the Pow but please leave some scraps for me
Proud to call Gore My Home Mountain
Just another REALLY STRANGE Day in Paradise!
JasonWx JasonWx
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Re: Storm Speculation: 12/25/10

In reply to this post by Harvey
not that it means anything this far out ..the 12zGFS basically weakens and moves the system way east...a non event..

let the roller coaster ride begin.
"Peace and Love"
NorEaster27 NorEaster27
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Re: Storm Speculation: 12/25/10

on the other hand the 12z EURO developes a monster storm right on the coast.....
JasonWx JasonWx
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Re: Storm Speculation: 12/25/10

just saw ukmet..waiting for 12z euro...

hoping gfs is just acting erratic
"Peace and Love"
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