Storm Speculation: 2/1/14

So what's the prediction for Saturday night, particularly Whiteface?  Will it be far north enough to not have the changeover at the mountain?  I'm heading up this weekend and am now worried that the original forecast for some snow and comfortable temps is quickly going to sh*t....

It seems like this season is all about weekend r*in events.

Where are you seeing liquid for Whiteface?

I don't see it.

This is the way I see it..My original 3-6 doesn't look like it's going to happen. Saturday there should be some light snow to start for the ADK's .Turning to very light sleet or rain towards the end of the day. Maybe some light rain for the over night until the cold front passes..
Currently there is not a lot  moisture  with this low and front..

The Cats might not see any precipt at all..

NWS, NOAA, Accuweather......all still have snow in the forecast right now.  Any mention of mix is for evening hours Sat, back to snow overnight, with a storm range of 2-5 overall.  Let's hope they have it right.

this is from NWS BTV.. this for the dacks and greens..

LOOKING FOR QPF AMTS TO RANGE FROM 0.10-0.50". DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL WAA WILL ALLOW FOR AND SNOW
AT THE BEGINNING OF EVENT TO MIX WITH AND EVEN CHANGE TO
RAIN...THEN SHIFT BACK TO SNOW FOR THE OVERNGT/SUNDAY HRS. AREAS
FROM THE CVLY AND SE WILL SEE ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT TO MIX IN TO
ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL OF WINTRY MIX...SLEET AND LIGHT FREEZING

It keeps changing...also when I do the NOAA point forecast and get it for 3884 ft(when you click tip of WF on the map), its snow...for the base elevation it rain/snow....to me, that's pretty scary since it has the potential to go one way or the other...

Hoping it pans out...

I guess what I was getting at is that in FEB, we shouldn't even be having a discussion like this ha...

welcome to the Northeast..

There's a lot of warm air streaming north. Hopefully the far northern areas are spared..it's a minor event so no major damage..

I<3ADK wrote

It keeps changing...also when I do the NOAA point forecast and get it for 3884 ft(when you click tip of WF on the map), its snow...for the base elevation it rain/snow....to me, that's pretty scary since it has the potential to go one way or the other...

Hey you using NYSB's awesome array of NWS point forecast links?  

While I really like the point forecast feature, understand you need to take it with a grain.  No forecast can be that precise.

For me if I see snow up top and rain in the valley, I assume it's going to be close, and we've got a shot at snow.

Yeh, I hear ya...maybe I'm just searching for what I want to hear so I'm not driving up the northway all nervous about R**n...

Sometimes maybe just good to not look at the weather and go for it...

I<3ADK wrote

Yeh, I hear ya...maybe I'm just searching for what I want to hear so I'm not driving up the northway all nervous about R**n...

LOL sounds like you are coming from the capital district. I'm going through the same thing, but I'm 5 hours away.

Lionel:

http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/wingbowl-weather-forecast/



Red line is the 850mb line, so better chance for snow to the NW of the line.  I think.

From my girl Rebecca via FB



Rebecca's Northeast weather and education page at New Baltimore Service Area


Sorry this is late, we're heading for New York City.
 
High pressure is sliding off the coast. Allowing for a weak storm to approach the area and cause all of these clouds. Thanks to some dry air over the region, the weak cold front is weakening as it moves into the region today and tonight the snow potential will likely remain limited to a flurry, or at best a few snow showers. Temperatures will be average for this time of year.
 
The next storm to affect our area will be moving in Saturday into Sunday morning. The system will be approaching from the SW. The track of this storm will move through northern NYS and northern New England. A warm front ahead of it will push warmer air into region.

For the Tug Hill, Saint Lawrence Valley, Adirondacks, northern Champlain Valley, and northern VT, northern NH a general 1-3 inches with perhaps a bit more in northeast NH. As for Maine, northern Maine north of Greenville 2-5 inches, south of Berlin and Millinocket 1-2 inches. All of these areas could see a change over to a mix at some point.


For areas south of the track in NYS, Western Central, and Eastern NYS (including Albany) , Snow perhaps up to an inch, will likely change over to sleet and then rain. the southern Hills and areas south of the Capital District, not a lot of precipitation, but you could see a brief start of snow that would switch over to rain...

For Central and Southern New England. For MA, there will be A few snow showers possible Saturday morning Any snow would change over to mix of sleet /freezing rain, then over to all rain, .even for the ski areas in central and southern VT and NH, later in the Afternoon /evening . All precipitation would be rain Sunday Morning.

For PA , snow showers will make the transition to a light wintry mix Saturday afternoon, then to all rain, I don't expect to see any precipitation south of the Lehigh Valley.
 
As I've been saying, as we head into February , The jet stream lifts north allowing the first part of the month to be milder, it will also shift the storm track north. The pattern will favor snow events in the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. But as is always to case, storm tracks will determine who sees what.

For next week, I'm watching two possible storms.

Right now it looks to be a large storm system, that will pass over southern New England or just off the Coast. ...This would favor snow in northern inland areas and for parts of central and northern NYS. For southern New England snow would chance over to a mix. With a mix for southeastern PA including the Lehigh Valley, more of mix precip event. We're still a long way out, so things can and will change, everything will depend on the exact track of this storm.
 
Also I'm still watching a storm for next weekend..

from NWS Albany 12:43 PM: "SATURDAY NIGHT...STORM TOTAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS APPROACH 4-6 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS"

This sure is a lot of jibber-jabber over a 1-3" storm, no?

Yes my god please go back to talking about what ads TJ is seeing based on his browsing habits.

That's easy Harv

wow ..i said all that in 3 lines

Noah John wrote

That's easy Harv

HOLY CRAP ---- Mom??

Harvey wrote

Yes my god please go back to talking about what ads TJ is seeing based on his browsing habits.

that was funny

Noah John wrote

That's easy Harv

I want an ad featuring this picture to appear on every webpage I visit.