Ok, with Winter Storm Warnings issued for the North Country this event warrants, finally, its own thread.
For the Northern Daks and NoVT the latest forecasts put this at a 10 to 16 inch event for the mountains, currently. There is some decent agreement in the models. How far north the warm front makes it will impact the outcomes, and with strong frontogenesis, weak stability, and a lot of available moisture, mesoscale banding could set up with the second wave of precipitation during the daylight hours Friday, resulting in some heavy snowfall rates.
Snow starts overnight tonight into Thursday with cold air in place for everyone, and a quick burst of accumulating snow. 2-4 north with more in the mountains, and a couple inches down Gore way and even possibly the Cats. Then the warm nose moves in, changing precip to sleet, freezing rain, then rain for most, if not all. Fortunately, with a dry slot moving in with the warm front much of the sleet and freezing rain for Thurs afternoon and evening will be intermittent and light, especially far north. Then Thursday night into Friday the second wave comes through, temps drop, and snow could be heavy at times. When the mixed precipitation changes back to snow and where, exactly, the heavy snow sets up...who knows?
All in all, for Northern mountains, this could be a good event. I wouldn’t bet on anything south of Gore, and I’m going to look into heading to Whiteface or Jay Peak Friday night.
This marks the first weekend I am cleared by Dr to ski post herniated disc injury/epidural injection. Still hurts a little bit but have been able to resume normal activities like biking over the last 2 weeks. Going to give it a shot and take it easy.
Booked a room in Rutvegas with ability to cancel by Friday afternoon at no charge to hedge bets on how this unfolds. Either will head there or Gore depending on how totals stack up.
In any case. I'm excited to be getting back out there this weekend. Just hope I fare OK.