What's next?

What’s next?

Here's a serious question : where is the BULLION to back all this FIAT **money they ARE printing ?? Uh huh yep we were already a Trillion dollars in the hole this year in the Federal Budget BEFORE the pandemic .

Could this be the new Venezuela ??

***Fiat money ( US currency is an example is basically not backed sufficiently with bullion or other precious metals) and is actually worthless except in the mass psychology of nations,    meaning we only " THINK " its worth something but there is no gold bullion backing it in the "same proportion " it is being printed

Scary, you  bet it is .Someday that is coming home to roost

Real life never ended for those of us in "essential" fields although personally I think every business is essential to the health of this country.  Essential because there is a human story behind every job.  That said here is what I believe will happen:

1) President will minimize and/or fire Dr. Gloom (Fauci) and Dr. Doom (Birx).  My guess is this will happen tomorrow.  
2) Right or wrong, the crisis will be framed as largely a metro NYC problem.  The rest of our country is not as enamored with NY as we are.
3) Texas will ease restrictions on most businesses.  Like minded states that had few restrictions in place will follow suit.  Ultimately this will place pressure on more restrictive states to ease policies.  Remember, much of the pain has been inflicted at the state level.
4) Domestic air travel will start to open up with possible limitations to/from known "hot spots".  Foreign travel will be restricted for the rest of the year; travel to/from China longer.
5) And yes, WD, inflation will rise due to the massive injection of cash into economy.  Smart people will use this opportunity to pay off devalued debt.
6) Americans will become as comfortable with annual CV deaths as they are with the flu, etc.  An annual vaccine may be developed at some point but like the flu it will only be partially effective.
7) Some people will learn from this experience and make a plan to have an abundance of essentials (food, TP, etc.) in stock in preparation for the next crisis.  Most will not.

Which businesses should be opened?  Any which dares to.  Business owners and customers need to decide for themselves if they are risking their health.  Those who want to stay home can - there will be plenty of other people producing the goods and services that will make this possible.

No mention of testing in your prediction.  Hope you are wrong.

Car washes. My car looks like shit.

Companies should start putting orders in for masks and purel.

onscott wrote

Real life never ended for those of us in "essential" fields although personally I think every business is essential to the health of this country.  Essential because there is a human story behind every job.  That said here is what I believe will happen:

Huh? What do you mean by real life never ended for those deemed essential businesses. You can't truly mean that, if so, you'd better look around. Shit has changed and it doesn't matter if you're working or not.

My buddy said it the best. People are getting their lattes delivered to their houses now, we're all fucked.

tjf1967 wrote

Car washes. My car looks like shit.

Companies should start putting orders in for masks and purel.

Don't you have a hose?

Brownski wrote

What do we need to see to start loosening up?

Fast, reliable testing for everyone and some kind of confirmation about whether it's possible to get it again once you had it

When do you think we can start moving back towards real life?

"Real life" continues. Nothing is static. Things change. "Real life" is the life you are living. It's no less "real" because some people are staying home more.

How do we do it? All it once or a little at a time?

Not sure what you mean here. There are people who are working their asses off because their "real life" demands that they do. It's a bit strange to ask exactly how the people privileged enough to work from home should transition back to the office.

If a little at a time, which businesses get to come back first? (I could really use a haircut)

I think there might be more important things going on in the world than haircuts? But if you want one, just buy a set of clippers and go nuts.

I am assuming nobody thinks we can leave things like they are for eighteen months but if you do, feel free to say so.

What do you all think?

I think that we could survive if we had to do this for 18 months, but a shorter timeframe would obviously be better. The whole point of "flatten the curve" was to spread it out so we don't overwhelm the hospitals. If you spread it out, it will take longer (and less people will die).

We don't know exactly how long it will take, we don't know which businesses will fail, and we don't know what post-pandemic life will look like (I'm not going to wear a mask, but I'd bet that more people start doing it).

These answers probably aren't satisfying to you, but if your biggest problem is that you "could really use a haircut", I feel pretty confident in this prediction: the human race will manage to make it through this and we'll have some good ski days next year.

warp daddy wrote

Here's a serious question : where is the BULLION to back all this FIAT **money they ARE printing ?? Uh huh yep we were already a Trillion dollars in the hole this year in the Federal Budget BEFORE the pandemic .

Could this be the new Venezuela ??

***Fiat money ( US currency is an example is basically not backed sufficiently with bullion or other precious metals) and is actually worthless except in the mass psychology of nations,    meaning we only " THINK " its worth something but there is no gold bullion backing it in the "same proportion " it is being printed

Scary, you  bet it is .Someday that is coming home to roost

This is fearmongering. We don't currently have any inflation and lots of people are worried about deflation. And even if we got a bit of inflation, it would be good. We could pay off our debts with cheaper dollars and this country's goods would become less expensive on the world market, leading to more US based manufacturing.

Warp, what are you even arguing here? You think we should go back to the gold standard or something?

Well yeah I do but have not hooked it up yet.  I did troubleshoot the sprinkler system and got that up and going last week.  The hoses will come out this week.  Its that time... pressure wash the houses.  I guess I will have no choice but to spend the 15 minutes to wash the car.  The inside was pretty spotless.   I had to replace a thermocupling at the apartment and got it a mess.  Being the johnylightbrite I am I just jumped in the car to run to Home depot and the shit went everywhere.  

Not fear mongering at all , simply employing a scenario that could be the worst as many planners have done in projecting the medical impacts.

Behavior both human and financial has consequences and we should be looking at best , worst  , and most likely scenarios AND MAKE PLANS to accommodate them all

That is my message Matt , if it scares you , well that is natural, because then perhaps we as a nation can avoid it by taking actions to prevent it .

Trump will do whatever  he does , BUT people will make their decisions based on their own reality NOT his judgement . Many will say open up and take your chances ....people WITH options will likely say " YOU GO FIRST " 😉

warp daddy wrote

Not fear mongering at all , simply employing a scenario that could be the worst as many planners have done in projecting the medical impacts.

So you aren't fearmongering, you're just shouting out a worst case scenario with no actual evidence that we're headed that way?

I guess my real problem was this:

warp daddy wrote

Could this be the new Venezuela ??

***Fiat money ( US currency is an example is basically not backed sufficiently with bullion or other precious metals) and is actually worthless

And my question was: do you think we should go back to the gold standard?

Harvey wrote

No mention of testing in your prediction.  

I would hope they develop a more conclusive test. A 33% false negative is far from an accurate test imo.

Does your car look dirtier than usual? For the first time ever, I have a garage, and I drive every day.  Seems much better for the car. Especially the driving everyday. No rust on the brakes.

Oh yeah I have a subscription with Hoffman's.  I usually go through it 3/4 times per week.  I drive by it to get home so when there is no line I slide through.  

I know I have called us all privileged before, but if haircuts, car washes, the size of emergency funds, and the fluctuations in the stock market are our biggest concerns....

We all have it pretty good.

That and our parents dying cause some dickweed does not have the courtesy to wear a mask and practice social distancing.

MC2 5678F589 wrote

These answers probably aren't satisfying to you, but if your biggest problem is that you "could really use a haircut"......

Like, that was......something.  

Seriously, after reading that drivel all I think is “what a d#%k!”  Perhaps his most pretentious, useless, and unnecessarily argumentative post ever.  That’s saying a lot.  Bravo!

Good topic Brownski, too bad someone had to reduce it to “all we care about is haircuts and car washes”.  What a d...., oh, like, did I already say that?

I really don’t know what to think, but I’ll speculate.  Definitely widespread testing (both viral and antibody) and a big drop down the backside of the curve before things loosen.  I don’t think we wait for a vaccine, as that will only be available to, like, MeCentric and Sarah Gilbert by September.  Despite MeCentric being his Massengil fresh self, we know what you mean by “real life”, something approximating our old “normal”.  It’s definitely not “strange” to wonder how society starts to get back to where we were, or if we ever do.  MeCentric can, like, belittle the “privileged office workers” getting back all he wants, but that’s going to be as big a part of establishing our new normal as will schools, and service industries, and trades, and all the rest.  Frankly, I think office workers will be one of the first back.  Just makes logical sense, as social interaction/distance can probably be better managed there than at a restaurant/bar/construction site.  Fauci is probably right, some areas of the country and some industries will “open” sooner than others.  My wild, unfounded speculation?  By June I’ll be back in the office (NYC) and by July I think things will be more like they were for many of us, and I’ll wear a mask on mass transit.

Jeez
I really could give a shit what my hair looks like but my barber ought to be able to reopen before he’s completely broke. I have no idea if he’s able to access some kind of assistance or not- not to mention the 2 or 3 haircutters he employs.
I’m perfectly fine by the way since booze is essential. The fact that I’m able to make money myself doesn’t blind me to what’s happening around me. My dollars are up but that’s only because I work with the off-premise side of the industry. Restaurants are absolutely devastated. The people in my company that sell on-premise have seen their business just disappear in a puff of smoke and thousands of people in their accounts have been laid off. Bar owners are setting up gofundmes for their employees and hitting up their salespeople (who might be making 30% of what they did last year) to contribute. The restaurants need some kind of a roadmap going forward or a large percentage of them won’t reopen.
Car washes, movie theaters, dealerships are all easy to dismiss if you don’t work at one yourself but they’re important to the economy.

Can you imagine if booze wasn't essential? Holy crap what a shit show we'd have on our hands.