Winter Weather 2015-2016

Mostly looking for a reason to start this thread.

Looks like we are going to get something.

TD: At first glance I assumed it was in your communistic metric system.  Those are real merican inches, raht there.

Ha.. Heading up in the early AM tomorrow. Hope we get hit pretty hard!

Skiray wrote

Ha.. Heading up in the early AM tomorrow. Hope we get hit pretty hard!

When was this call made?  :)

Just to be sensible this is the call for Gore at 2500 ft, not exactly in line with the map. That map is assuming that all sleet is snow, a bit of a long shot:

Monday Night Snow, mainly after 2am. Low around 11. Wind chill values as low as -2. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph becoming southeast after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Tuesday Snow and sleet before 10am, then sleet between 10am and 4pm, then freezing drizzle likely after 4pm. High near 31. Wind chill values as low as -1. Breezy, with a southeast wind 20 to 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Jay Peak in the wheelhouse:

I would think that areas north and east might do even better than Jay. Burke, Cannon, townships.

OK maybe I got a little loose with my wheelhouse.

ml242 wrote

I would think that areas north and east might do even better than Jay. Burke, Cannon, townships.

This looks like a pretty good setup for Cannon early with ENE winds but eventually the winds shift to S when the NCP comes in and that is death for Cannon. Hopefully all the snow is down before the winds and wet stuff start kicking from the S. Wildcat could end up the big winner. I think the storm is going to underperform overall and it looks like it will end wet. But that isn't stopping me from heading to Cannon tomorrow.

Here in North River the drip drip has finally turned to flake.  That will crustify the woods, but I'll take it.

This has me feeling optimistic:
january-pattern-change-to-make-mildness-a-distant-memory

After a week in Florida, It's time for winter!!! Pattern change is in progress. Progressively   colder weather over the next two weeks will allow for some great snowmaking..As far as natural snow goes, hard to tell what will pop up..

Saw a spot on the news tonight..... 70 ski hills in the northeast are closed due to weather. Some gave quotes saying they've lost 20% of their business so far. They're saying it's the warmest December on record for the northeast.

Another run or two and it could be time for a Storm Spec Thread:

KALB LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MAINLY TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A STORM SYSTEM AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO IMPACT THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. BY FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN FROM EASTERN CANADA. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS CLOUDS INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY.

FOR THE WEEKEND...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN EVOLUTION OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN.  THE 00Z/GFS SHOWS A PRIMARY LOW TRACKING UP THE GREAT LAKES REGION TRANSFERRING ITS ENERGY OVER TO A COASTAL LOW DURING THIS PERIOD... WHILE THE 00Z/EURO HAS A SINGLE SYSTEM TRAVELING INTO THE WESTERN LAKES WITH THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON THE MILD SIDE.

00Z/EURO HAS A BRIEF PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY MORNING AND DRY THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE 00Z/GFS HAS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WINTRY WEATHER DURING THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS STILL A LOT OF TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM...THAT COULD FEATURE MORE OF A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ALONG WITH RAIN DEPENDING ON STORM TRACK AND HOW THE THERMAL PROFILE ULTIMATELY SETS UP AND EVOLVES. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

And finally some blue for NY:

Harvey wrote

And finally some blue for NY:

Still too much red in the Adirondacks... oh wait, that's another thread

Finally a winter pattern... As of now not the snowiest but cold enough to blow for a good long time

Deja Vu  

First the good news..Seasonably cold all week with many snow showers...
Now the not so good news...Another low is going to pass to our left(west) on  Saturday...Yes it might bring the R word...
The GFS has been advertising this for the last 2 runs..
Shame I can't see a euro in real time...you can only see it after it's 12hrs old..unless you pay for it..

peace and love

For Whiteface, Mountain-Forecast (has forecasts for different elevations) for Saturday night is showing liquid precip at lower elevation, with snow (6 inches) at the summit.  NWS Foecast Discussion mentioned the possibility of some warm air over running the system, but concludes it's too early to tell.

Could temps fall in our favor?