Winter Weather 2016-2017

Thanks for the input Jason.  Trying to piece stuff together....looks like both locales have precip coming back into the forecast at some point Wed/Thurs/Fri.  Based on what I've found, and the maps Harvey posted, PNW is colder, but Tahoe is looking at normal temps.  Chances are both locales will see snow at the summits with some mix at the bases (freezing level around 4,500 PNW versus 7,500 Tahoe).  So with a setup like that it's a matter of who squeezes more snow out, and whose ops are less screwed up by the systems.  PNW might not accumulate as much as Tahoe typically does, but it's probably the safer bet.

JT
what are the dates you will be out there?

Skiing on Feb 4th and 5th.

as of the latest run...There is really no weather to speak of on those dates..
the previous run had some rain in tahoe , snow for the cascades..

Thanks for checking!

Hey, if someone gets snow on the 1st/2nd/3rd I'm ok without it on the 4th/5th.

NOAA forecasts have a 20/50/50% chance of precipitation for Tahoe Wed/Wed Night/Thurs.  Crystal area is currently forecast at 50/60/70%.  Of course that's almost a week out....

I've seen a number of different forecast sites bringing a storm to the coast middle of next week.  Not  necessarily surprising that the run don't show much right now?  I was reading that for Tahoe the QPF has been exceeding early runs pretty consistently all winter so far.

hard to be more precise this far out...
when is you airfare change deadline?

Good question!  Looks like my brother is going to come with, will look to pull the trigger later today....

https://graphical.weather.gov

Been playing with this.  You can click on an area, go to a weekly view, get forecast temps, PoP, weather/precip type by day.Don't know how reliable, but I always like looking to NOAA forecasts.

Like what it shows for the NE this through this weekend.  Wed/Thurs has stuff for both my potential targets, again the PNW maybe the more likely bet.

this guy is hands down the best PNW forecaster out there..

https://opensnow.com/dailysnow/northwest

Thanks!  Yeah, I saw his forecast.  Me no likey!  But he is consistent with the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.



WPC not showing much 7 day QPF for the PNW.  Some, but not a lot.  On the other hand......a fair bit of QPF in the 7 day WPC forecast for the Tahoe area.  Maybe it should be Tahoe?

UCSD Center for Western Weather agrees....



Now, aren't the WPC and the GFS NOAA things?  Shouldn't they, like, have their acts together???  The GFS say PNW is the winner....



So what the f' do I do with that?!

snow wise tahoe looks like the better bet..but the the crowds might be insane..
https://opensnow.com/dailysnow/tahoe

Hey, if there is a two day total pushing 3 feet through Friday, followed by a gorgeous powder weekend......I'll deal with the crowds.

Seeing if I can wrap my brother in......but the cost of the f'ing outbound JetBlue flight went up.  I booked my ticket with miles last week.

should be great no matter where you go!!

I just have a crowd phobia

Shit......Mountain-Forecast aligning with the GFS, with a lot of snow for the Crystal area starting Tuesday.  Gotta see if that opensnow dude changes his tune.  Seattle would be a cheaper ticket for my brother, and we could get into the backcountry.  Maybe the needle is moving back....

Nice to see the coasts heating up, but the Rockies looks pretty dry for a while.

Washington is looking much colder then Tahoe...Not arctic cold but colder without a rain threat...
have fun throwing the dice..
I would go to washington..

Thanks.  I'd feel better about it if that OpenSnow douchenozzel wasn't saying there would be no snow next week in the PNW  I'm booked for both Tahoe and Seattle at the moment.  The Delta to Seattle I can cancel for free until midnight tomorrow, the JetBlue to Reno I can cancel for $60.  Options are open!  The pendulum is swinging back WA way.  I didn't get to gamble or shop last trip....

Nice to see winter delivering in the east/Daks!  Just a week or two ago everyone was worried about how bad the end of January was going to be!

Jason....as for the West this week, any updated thoughts? I need someone to keep me from going weather insane! A rex block developing in the PNW keeping things high and dry, maybe breaking down Thursday, with uncertain prospects for relatively light snow Thursday and Friday.  Tahoe looks like it will have a moderate atmospheric river system moving in Thursday, with better chances of significant snow (2+ feet) Thursday through Friday night.....followed by sunny skies for the weekend.  Freezing levels for the event should start at Lake level, rise to about 7,000 Thursday night, coming back down Friday as a cold front passes.  Wondering if you see the same things, and if PNW would still be your call.

It looks like Tahoe will get more snow, but that snow ain't gonna be powder..Temps will be around freezing for the event..
Washington will get less snow if any, but will remain cold..

All that said , Sat and Sunday look to be sunny in Tahoe...
Remember it's Sunday and things can change..
Have fun!!

Alberta Clipper on the way for 1/31 - 2/1. Any ideas on what might come of this?