Winter Weather 2016-2017

PeeTex wrote

3 to 6, at least it's looking that way

Rebecca's Northeast Weather wrote

A cold or warm February in the Northeast?

Most of the Teleconnections are showing a cold pattern, but we do have one hold out, the EPO is staying positive which is a warm single for the Northeast. Here is a look at the AO,NAO,PNA,WPO, and EPO. The NAO is negative to neutral, When we compare the teleconnection phases and this time of year, we see they are calling for a colder solution. The EPO is in a warm positive phase, but even that doesn't have the impact this time of year, as it would at other times of the year. So the teleconnections are showing below average to well below average temperature pattern of the Northeast into the foreseeable future.

I've talked a lot about the sudden stratospheric warming event under way in the Arctic, and how that correlates to colder air spilling into the Northeast 10 days or so after it starts.

When we look at the at the Euro's Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) forecast, we see we're leaving phase 4 and heading into phases 5 and 6. This time of year phases 5 and 6 hint at warmth. However, by the time we get out to day 10 the MJO is in Phase 8. which shows cold. This is saying we would see a short lived warm up followed by a big cool down.

The Euro has been doing a very poor job in the medium and long range; It has been at odds at it's own teleconnection inputs. The American GEFS seems to have a much better handle on the teleconnection inputs into the model feed. We're going to see a lot of cold building up in Canada. With a trough in the Gulf of Alaska almost to Hawaii, calls for a pumped ridge on the West Coast. So where can that cold go? I don't see it dissipating , and the northern jet isn't all that active. All of that suggest that the cold would come into the Midwest and East Coast.

I'm not sure I believe the Euro when its showing all this heat in February. just about everything I've looked at is showing overall cold.....but I guess we will see.

Snowballs wrote

PeeTex wrote

3 to 6, at least it's looking that way

Anymore, that's a dump around here. We'll take it !!!

JasonWx wrote

as of now looks like a mixed bag followed by snow on the back side..