Winter Weather 2016-2017

Another big weekend in the PNW...



Did JTG end up going to Tahoe?

Yeah, change of scenery!  Jason called it a week ago, he said PNW.  Tahoe will have 1 to 2 feet of fresh, I'll find a way to deal with that I guess.  Does look like you guys will get hammered this weekend.  

Honestly, I wasn't that thrilled with what I've been hearing about the backcountry out there the past week, with a rain crust above 5,000 from the inversion, a significant grauple type sleety layer buried at lower elevations, a lot of variable and icy conditions, and a slide at Hurricaine Ridge last Saturday.  A lot of new snow on top of that wasn't giving me the warm and fuzzies, plus my go to guy is in CO for a couple more weeks.  In bounds and North/South at Crystal should be primo, though.  No doubt I'll miss a great weekend there, but I'm excited to see Squaw and check out the Tahoe backcountry.

you will have a great time regardless...just seeing all that snow is worth the plane ticket..

now back at home...it is now becoming harder to put a good spin on next Tuesday's and Wed's event..

we need another miracle, we already had one last week where we got snow in a terrible pattern.  With this storm we have a decent high to the north, hopefully the initial storm cuts so far west a new triple point forms along the coast, that would keep most of the rain to our south.  A long shot but we have time.

Good Luck JTG... stay safe!!

Just got done running errands for my old lady... snow all the way down to the valley floor with temps in the low 20's.  Headed up to the mtn now... we're getting pummeled on the East side this morning.

That snow last week is what I call "The storm that saved Lookout".

Definitely would not be opening today (and possibly all season) if that was all r*in.

experimental 2-7 day forecast from nysb weather

The cycle of rain /cold /rain/cold  will be on the menu for the next  week or so..

on the left coast.. mind blowing precipitation...

Yeah, people last weekend were talking about it in Tahoe.  The atmospheric river is flowing this week, looking at 10+ inches of QPF, with a temp profile that will bring rain to most places and heavy wet snow at best on the summits, with a freezing level close to 9,000.

Looks like the PNW stays cold, good for nepa and anyone else who can steal away to WA (cough)Mike(cough)!

Looks like it might only be a brief warmup later today in the NE, with freezing levels jumping to 7,000.  Too bad, because with upwards of an inch of QPF it could have been big.....

Trying to leverage a work trip to CA which may pop up in the next few weeks....headed to CO on the 19th tho...

lol Jason, 4 inches last night at Whiteface, another 4 inches today before we go over the sleet / zr.  Some rain tomorrow morning but shouldn't do much damage.

I respectfully disagree...I think there will be a swapt of heavy rain moving thru the mountains... with some booming temps..

don't think it will do much damage, but this up and down is a pain

given how warm its been this winter, to have whiteface sitting at 165 inches so far this year is very good in my mind.  200 inches looks like a given this year.  They have done very well with LES / Upslope this year..much more than in past years.  I am hoping for more sleet than ZR, either way the pack should absorb most of it.  I dont think we get super warm for a long period of time, CAA is strong by tomorrow morning.  

JasonWx wrote

I respectfully disagree...I think there will be a swapt of heavy rain moving thru the mountains... with some booming temps..

don't think it will do much damage, but this up and down is a pain

It looks that way, but yet if you look at the temps on the GFS during the pcp timeframe, it's REALLY very close to being mostly a "not rain" event, but it's on the "wrong" side right now by a few degrees.  

The Canadian says it's not even close, with mid-40s temps, but given it's been the worst model on this system, I'm not sure if that should worry me much.  

Then again, the GFS has a cold bias, sooooo...... guess I'll be checking tomorrow to see if any locals stick their index finger out the window and post here, because tonight/tomorrow's weather will be the go/no-go decision for Whiteface for me this weekend.


EDIT:  Just married the NAM with the live radar, and temps in the approaching system are pretty much spot-on with what the NAM modeled, but the existing air lingering to the north (ADK & n.VT, etc...) is colder than was modeled.  So, I think this really is going to be a close one. Fingers crossed for the "least bad" or maybe even "positive surprise" result.

What has me leaning to a warm event is, the +10 degs at T3 on the ALB fous...BTV is all +'s at all levels..

Thursdays event has some potential to be a surprise..

Thursdays event is for the flat lands of I-95 and maybe the catskills...dacks look skunked.  

I live between them

meh, I only care about snow in the mountains and really only the dacks, snow in westchester where I am is pretty useless.

i need to go up to WF and make some turn we you weather guys

I care about snow as far down as the Catskills, because my dad skis there.

Right now, it's 20 degrees in Potsdam.  It's always 5-10 degrees colder at the bottom of Whiteface.  Colder than forecasted.