Coronavirus

If we go backwards with this it will be devastating. I can't even imagine having to go through a "pause" again. Pray it doesn't happen.

New York seems to be doing a good job (although the 7 day average for my county is 4.1 per day, up from 2.1 per day two weeks ago), but if other states get bad, it’ll get bad here, too.

Maybe the “reopen the economy” people were too hasty? Particularly the ones in Arizona, Texas & Florida?

MC2 5678F589 wrote

New York seems to be doing a good job (although the 7 day average for my county is 4.1 per day, up from 2.1 per day two weeks ago), but if other states get bad, it’ll get bad here, too.

Maybe the “reopen the economy” people were too hasty? Particularly the ones in Arizona, Texas & Florida?

Maybe. Or maybe Too many people drinking expensive beer and singing folk songs at bbqs and picnics over the holiday weekend. I Don’t know. I wasn’t aware of a spike in deaths so I googled it and found this on NBC.com. It’s not causing me to panic just yet.

I think we are in it for the long run now.  Control and keep moving forward is the only direction...less you want to crater the economy

Brownski wrote

. Or maybe Too many people drinking expensive beer and singing folk songs at bbqs and picnics over the holiday weekend.

Why do people use this as an opportunity to make moral judgements about people? What does “expensive beer” have to do with COVID? I’m being told to go to an office building 1 day a week (soon to be every other day) for work. Judging by the stuff I have read, I feel way more exposed in that kind of indoor/lots of other people (that I don’t know)/surfaces that haven’t been exposed to sunlight/etc. environment than I do at socially distanced outdoor parties & bonfires.

Maybe relax a little on the moral judgment part of the shaming.

tjf1967 wrote

I think we are in it for the long run now.  Control and keep moving forward is the only direction...less you want to crater the economy

The “economy” will depend on:
1. Additional stimulus, particularly a bailout for State & Local governments, whose tax revenue is cratering
2. Support for the poor & middle class, in the form of additional government checks
3. Whether or not schools open up in the fall and how parents are able to deal with childcare issues if kids go to school only 1 or 2 days a week

Those things don’t really have much to do with “keep moving forward”. We could start shutting stuff down again & the “economy” could be fine, as long as we support the people & businesses that need help.

Hey I said “I don’t know” didn’t I? The chart is the only substantive part of that post.

Brownski wrote

. I wasn’t aware of a spike in deaths so I googled it and found this on NBC.com. It’s not causing me to panic just yet.

Also, be aware that official death numbers might not tell the whole story:


From: https://www.texastribune.org/2020/07/08/houston-coronavirus-deaths-number/

The big difference is one of those tasks pays your bills.

I'm not looking for it but If if you look at the trends for death rates in the US for each month its safe to say the increase is covid.  BOOM take out any funny business.  

The economy depends on people wearing masks and social distancing.  Pretty simple yet people are not willing to follow the rules.  So we will have huge amounts of virus until the stupid people learn for themselves and stay safe.

The worst display of not wearing masks that I've seen was in Lake George. That said, those not wearing one weren't locals.

tjf1967 wrote

The big difference is one of those tasks pays your bills.

Yeah, well, I’m already on record for the UBI, so I’m in favor of bills getting paid.

The thing is, if states, cities, counties, & school districts have to make huge budget cuts that lead to layoffs, that will mean more people won’t be able to pay their bills (leading to more layoffs and more unpaid bills).

So, really, everything I said pays the bills.

campgottagopee wrote

The worst display of not wearing masks that I've seen was in Lake George. That said, those not wearing one weren't locals.

That was a bit scary when I drove through the other week.

How do you know which people were locals and which ones weren’t?

tjf1967 wrote

The economy depends on people wearing masks and social distancing.  Pretty simple yet people are not willing to follow the rules.  So we will have huge amounts of virus until the stupid people learn for themselves and stay safe.

This has been going on for the past few months in some states to hide the numbers. My father was a Funeral Director. There are death statistics for each county in the country with the average death rate for each month on a 10 year running average. It's a marketing and staffing tool for the funeral industry. I only saw one article that reference the numbers but they were up in states like Florida a significant percentage but they did not align with the reported COVID deaths. So where did the increases come from if it wasn't COVID related?
This might be the answer: Florida Corona Virus Data Manager Asked to Resign

MC2 5678F589 wrote

campgottagopee wrote

The worst display of not wearing masks that I've seen was in Lake George. That said, those not wearing one weren't locals.

That was a bit scary when I drove through the other week.

How do you know which people were locals and which ones weren’t?

I relied on our friends who are locals

I too find it baffling that so many people aren’t wearing masks when they’re out and about. I have a pretty persistent contrarian streak  myself but it doesn’t make sense to me to not play it safe. I’ve been back on the street since the beginning of June and I’ve been wearing a mask every day while working. They’re annoying but it’s nothing you can’t live with.

The nurses quoted in this article returned to CA, TX, and NC.  They have friends and family in the southeast or southwest.

July 7, NY Times
Nurses Who Battled Virus in New York Confront Friends Back Home Who Say It’s a Hoax
After aiding coronavirus patients in New York City, nurses face relatives and friends who refuse to wear masks or don’t believe the virus is real.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/us/coronavirus-nurses.html

The saddest story I've read this week was about a 17yo who died within a couple weeks after attending a youth event at her local church in Missouri. She had underlying medical conditions that put her at high risk.  Obviously her family didn't think masks or lack of physical distancing indoors mattered.  The youth program was closed for 14 days, but I expect it will re-open.  The question will be whether or not families send their teens.

I've driven slowly through downtown Asheville, NC and Lake Placid, NY around 5:30pm in the last few weeks.  Walked around National Harbor in DC at dinner time midweek too.  All are tourist destinations during the summer.  The signage about COVID-19 was pretty much the same.  There were noticeable differences in the percentage of people wearing masks in the different locations.  Also saw differences in how much physical distance people kept as they walked on narrow sidewalks or stopped to take a look in a store window.

Interesting to see families walking around with just one child wearing a mask, or just the mother, or all family members except the father and/or grandfather.  I've seen tourists pull masks out of a pocket when going inside a shop or restaurant of all ages.  So there is a level of awareness.

Around Raleigh, there is quite a lot of variation between neighborhoods when it comes to how people operate inside a supermarket or big box store.  Back in April and May, I checked out the same big box stores in different areas.  For instance Costco or Home Depot.  Also heard from friends who live 30-45 min away about what they were seeing in their neighborhoods.  Didn't take long to know where I won't be shopping for a while, and where it's not even a big deal for my husband to shop near our house even during non-senior hours midweek.  He is in a high risk group.

IMO the next 7-14 days will be definitive.

US deaths have been running around 200-400 a day for several days. Yesterday was 1100+ and today is around 550.

Statistically relevant? I think we'll know soon.