We have had feet of virtual snow in the long range, reality is so far this winter has given the south east and mid Atlantic more snow than most of the Northeast with more tomorrow. NNE did very well in November and just had an epic upslope snow event. Gore and Whiteface have been on the edge. 95 inches at Face this year is a solid number but it's really November with a long break in December. Stowe is at 150 and that's the upslope
A return to a more active weather pattern appears likely from the end of the week into the weekend...
Cold advection in the wake of this system for Friday/Friday night as high pressure noses in.
For the weekend, there is general agreement that strong southern stream jet energy will carve out a deep trough over the southern Plains, with a surface low developing along the associated sharp baroclinic zone. There is potential for this trough to phase with a northern stream wave sweeping across the western Great Lakes.
The result should be a full-latitude trough over the eastern Conus by Sunday. A widespread area of precipitation is
expected with lift over the baroclinic zone and in the right entrance region of a strong upper jet, as well as in the deformation region of the surface low.
There is good agreement in the deterministic guidance and GEFS in measurable precipitation over the local area late Saturday into Sunday with this system such that likely PoPs are in the forecast areawide.
What remains to be seen is the degree of phasing and if it will result in a sharper, neutrally tilted trough by the time it sweeps into the eastern CONUS, or whether it will stay positively tilted resulting in an overall weaker system and more of a glancing blow. The former solution could result in at least moderate snowfall accumulation ... depending on the eventual track of the surface low, some mixed precipitation cannot be ruled out either.
"You just need to go at that shit wide open, hang on, and own it." —Camp