Market Philosophy: What You Got?

campgottagopee wrote

Some are obsessed with politics and will bring it up at any give chance

I'm talking about the market, big guy.

Run along back to your "old white guy music" thread.

Then why bring up Trump? Why mention his name if your talking about the market. Rules are simple in the Off Topic, no politics. Follow the rules please.

Trump Train 2020 ---- I'm talking about trains

campgottagopee wrote

Then why bring up Trump? Why mention his name if your talking about the market. Rules are simple in the Off Topic, no politics. Follow the rules please

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I bring up Trump because his dumb tweets are what move the market. Which is perfectly relevant in discussions about the market.

And as far as your Trump support, ScottyJack & I always knew you were a closet Trumper. You weren't fooling anyone.

LMFAO --- tweets are moving the market???  

TRAIN baby!!

campgottagopee wrote

LMFAO --- tweets are moving the market???  

Unfrozen Caveman Camp strikes again.

You and the media are giving him a lot of credit. I love it!!!!

Train baby!!

There Matt goes again bringing politics back but sine Harv doesn’t seem to care this time I’ll jump right in. Trump has certainly done a lot more than give us a great economy, he is the first President in very long time to stand up for this country on the world stage in trade, he doesn’t stand for a lot of BS. The market is still up 18% since Jan 1 and we were due for a small correction, this is not the first sine he has been POTUS and won’t be the last. My only adjustment was to cut my foreign investments in half, when major European countries are selling bonds at negative interest rates you know the people have no faith in their economies.

I care. I'm moving, I am working a lot right now, and a loved one is in the hospital.

Please everyone stop.  I would appreciate it.

Oh  grow the fuck up , will you guys !

So damn sick of all your idiotic ,political bullshit . Take it somewhere else dammit ! This is a damn ski forum .

Well said Warp.

warp daddy wrote

Oh  grow the fuck up , will you guys !

So damn sick of all your idiotic ,political bullshit . Take it somewhere else dammit ! This is a damn ski forum .

Meh, if we want to talk about the market (and I do) geopolitical happenings are a big part of it. Sorry if that offends you guys. Plenty of other threads for you to click on.

PeeTex, how much international stock do you hold? How much of that is in emerging markets?

I originally started putting 45% in international. I figured: the U.S. is only like 8% of the world population, so there's no reason that I should have all my stocks in U.S. companies. Turns out the US market has been kicking ass and, even though I kept my contributions the same, the value of my US holdings shot up so much, my International stock is down to like 31%.

I was thinking now would actually be a good time to buy International stocks, especially emerging markets, which have taken a beating in the last couple of years. Buy low. Lots of people are scared, and you know what Buffet says to do when others are fearful.

How China handles Hong Kong , will be the driving force in the markets. It doesn't look good..

JasonWx wrote

How China handles Hong Kong , will be the driving force in the markets. It doesn't look good..

Feels like both Hong Kong & Brexit are temporary blips.

Something will happen, they'll "fix" the problem, everything will settle into a new equilibrium, and we'll wait for the next "emergency".

Maybe I'm just becoming more Zen (apathetic? cynical?) as I get older, but the things that are presented to us as world changing events rarely change the world. Yeah, it sucks for people who wanted to fly into or out of Hong Kong today, but flights will resume tomorrow as planned and businesses will keep going.

MC2 5678F589 wrote

PeeTex, how much international stock do you hold? How much of that is in emerging markets?

I have kept my nose out of what my portfolio managers decided the best mix for me was but I gave them a specific order to pull the international investments back to less than 20% several months ago. When the governments major countries are issuing bonds at negative interest rates it tells you that their people don’t even trust their own markets.

It's quite amazing how much international has underperformed the US over the past decade.



I try hard not to try to guess at all with markets, but I have always underweighted international. Makes no sense, but that is what I do.

MC2 5678F589 wrote

. Yeah, it sucks for people who wanted to fly into or out of Hong Kong today, but flights will resume tomorrow as planned and businesses will keep going.

Okay, maybe Thursday.

Yeah, I guess it kinda bit me in the ass over these past 10 years having so much of my money in international stocks (returning 7%/yr) instead of US Stocks (returning 10-15%/yr), but I still believe in diversification and year-to-date returns this year are pretty close.

We'll see what happens in the long run, but I would bet on "The rest of the world starts to become more like the U.S." over "The U.S. becomes more like the rest of the world" going forward, so maybe I'm just buying low on mutual funds that contain stocks like Nestle, Novartis, Toyota, & HSBC.

I agree. It's an opportunity.  Just not going 50/50 as true indexing would dictate.

MC2 5678F589 wrote

 my money in international stocks (returning 7%/yr) instead of US Stocks (returning 10-15%/yr)

Functionally, the money I rolled over from my previous job that I put into US Stocks has doubled twice and the money I rolled over and put into International Stocks has doubled once.

That isn't enormously significant with the (relatively) small dollar amounts that I had, but it would definitely be a huge difference going forward.

I've got 30% in international now (just looked). I guess I comfortable with that.

A 30% asset allocation in international stocks is bat shit stupid

I’ll try to use little words to get you to understand the economics of this

The dollar is super strong compared to everything but the Swiss Franc.  This has been the case for over a year and is only getting stronger.  Your international stocks profits when converted to USD get you less $ thus why would you want to hold them.

The Euro and Japanese bond yields are negative meaning it costs you to have someone else hold your money.  China is devaluing thier currency to prop up exports.  This is why the yield curve inverted this week despite strong consumer spending in the us as foreign money is gushing in to the US and buying US treasuries depressing the yield.  All this leads to a death spiral for international stocks value is USD.

A year ago I went to as close to a zero foreign stock allocation as you can get.  I’m at less than 2% currently as some us stock funds hold some foreign stocks.  I also sold all my US individual stocks that had high exposure to Asia markets over the past few months.

With S&P div yields avg 2% and treasuries well below that the play now is US large cap dividend stocks and mutual funds.  Bond  income is taxed as regular income while Corp Dividend are taxed at 15%

While nobody can time the market you can make smart decisions on your asset allocation based on economics taxes and understanding how markets really work.  Good luck with your 30% MC you can kiss that goodbye.