Market Philosophy: What You Got?

Looks good from that graph but look at the 1 and 5 yr graphs.  It tends to not stay high for long.  They get good news on one drug and bad on the next and it drops.  Very high beta as well so super risky at least for where I am at

Heavy R&D companies in bio pharma are going to get hammered if a socialist gets elected.  If you got in low sell and take your profits

Stock Market is in correction territory.

Time to buy? Or wait a bit longer?

I have been putting my new money in a 50/50 cash/stock split, so it might be time to switch back to 100% stocks. I'll leave some cash around just in case the bottom really falls out.

My main pot is currently 50/50 stocks/bonds, although right now people seem to be fleeing from more than just equities.

10% correction is enough for me, I’m thinking of going full in on stocks to hopefully catch the upside, then return to an 80/20 split like before.

I’ve taken some profits over the last couple weeks
Once we get a real bounce I will buy back in at lower prices with the cash pile

Z wrote

I’ve taken some profits over the last couple weeks
Once we get a real bounce I will buy back in at lower prices with the cash pile

Oh yeah, buddy, you've been timing the market exactly correctly I'm sure.

I feel like we're in for more downside. There were a lot of people saying the market was overbought already, there were signs of froth in stocks like Tesla and Virgin Galactic, and there is a lot of stuff the Fed is doing to keep the market(s) propped up and moving (like pouring tons of cash into the overnight lending markets on several occasions).

The coronavirus story has a lot of unfolding to do, and I believe part of that will be warnings from many many companies in the next few weeks about missing Q1 results at the very least, and possibly lowering full year results.

If you got out before this week and feel like you want to get in, do it slowly. You'll rarely catch the exact top and bottom. And frankly unless you're doing this in a retirement account without immediate tax implications, you'll end up losing anyway.

As I'm writing this a headline that California is monitoring 8,400 people for Covid-19 just hit the news. Keep your heads low.

billyymc wrote

As I'm writing this a headline that California is monitoring 8.400 people for Covid-19 just hit the news. Keep your heads low.

8.4 people? Damn. That 9th guy already lost 60% of his body.

I don't know what's going to happen in the long term, but as long as stocks are higher in 5 years, 10 years, and 20 years, I feel like I'm okay putting money in now. Hell, as long as I collect 3-5% quarterly dividends, even the market is flat, it's still better than any savings account.

If it goes down further, I'll be buying stocks at a cheaper price for a while. If it goes up, I'll be buying stocks at a more expensive price. Whatever.

The first big drop already baked in Q1 anticipated misses. This latest drop is over concerns on Q2 and the year as well as joe public selling into a down market. Keep your shorts on, this too will pass. The net positive is that big US companies will reassess their supply chains and have less reliance on overseas suppliers.

Ha, you and I agree!?!  Back in now, and even if we haven’t hit the floor it helps the dollar cost averaging.

MC2 5678F589 wrote

billyymc wrote

As I'm writing this a headline that California is monitoring 8.400 people for Covid-19 just hit the news. Keep your heads low.

8.4 people? Damn. That 9th guy already lost 60% of his body.

I don't know what's going to happen in the long term, but as long as stocks are higher in 5 years, 10 years, and 20 years, I feel like I'm okay putting money in now. Hell, as long as I collect 3-5% quarterly dividends, even the market is flat, it's still better than any savings account.

If it goes down further, I'll be buying stocks at a cheaper price for a while. If it goes up, I'll be buying stocks at a more expensive price. Whatever.

First - I fixed it, meant 8,400. Second, 5% is a pretty darn good dividend yield (but I assume you meant annual dividends even if they're paid quarterly). Third - if your time horizon is longer than 5 years sure just stay in and ride it out and you'll be fine. Personally I'm looking to retire in about six years, so a few weeks ago I took a chance and put most of my 401k into a money market fund...so going to start sliding some back in slowly soon and not try and catch the very bottom even though I do think there is a little downward left to go in the next month.

PeeTex wrote

The first big drop already baked in Q1 anticipated misses. This latest drop is over concerns on Q2 and the year as well as joe public selling into a down market. Keep your shorts on, this too will pass. The net positive is that big US companies will reassess their supply chains and have less reliance on overseas suppliers.

Probably right on the Q1 misses being baked in by now. But it wont' pass in Q2, this is going to be a full year impact.

As for reassessing supply chains - maybe, but not likely IMO to pull work back into the U.S. so much as diversify their supply chain overseas.

Watch the closing action to get a sense for whether the fear is still building or whether it's calming down.

JTG4eva! wrote

Ha, you and I agree!?!  Back in now, and even if we haven’t hit the floor it helps the dollar cost averaging.

You, me, and PeeTex all seem to agree in this thread, which might be the first time that has ever happened.

What are we talking about? Dollar cost averaging?

I agree too.

Dow down over 300 pts in the last 30 min of trade. Fed rate cut coming, will provide a relief rally followed by more news driven selling. This is far from over.

Absolutely ira and 401k dollar cost averaging equities is a smart move in this situation.    A lot of IRA funding happens in the next month so as long as shit doesn’t get really real in the next month we should see a bottom

As I said before this is far from over. I think the bottom will be marked by several significant down days in a row, without the abrupt and large up days we saw interspersed the last couple of weeks. There isn’t a quick happy ending to this because the US is way behind in testing and containment of this virus - and the markets hate uncertainty.

The Fed is powerless now. We will be in recession in the second quarter. If this virus is like the flu and largely goes away during the summer it should be a short recession - but experts don’t know if that will happen.

It’s far from over.

Here's an article with fun players (Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia):

https://amp.ft.com/content/59dcba56-61a2-11ea-b3f3-fe4680ea68b5

When people say "I don't like Trump personally, but he's great for the economy", what happens when the economy shits the bed?

MC2 5678F589 wrote

Here's an article with fun players (Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia):

https://amp.ft.com/content/59dcba56-61a2-11ea-b3f3-fe4680ea68b5

When people say "I don't like Trump personally, but he's great for the economy", what happens when the economy shits the bed?

But it's not his economy --- LOL

campgottagopee wrote

But it's not his economy --- LOL

Why did the Saudi's short circuit the oil market? Desperation to steal scraps of market share?  Seems foolish.