Market Philosophy: What You Got?

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Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

Harvey
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It's got to be something structural to be that dramatic.

The unemployed aren't measured and the people who are still employed are saving a lot?

Or maybe there is nothing to spend on.
"You just need to go at that shit wide open, hang on, and own it." —Camp
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Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

Harvey
Administrator
In reply to this post by MC2 5678F589
+600 unemployment?
"You just need to go at that shit wide open, hang on, and own it." —Camp
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Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

MC2 5678F589
Holy shit, Blackrock is cashing in on the Fed's desire to back up all these big businesses (instead of letting them go bankrupt):
This is all mediated through the financial system. The Fed buys the ETFs from big banks. And they are using a sponsor—in this case, asset manager giant BlackRock—to execute its purchases. Here’s a convenient list of the sales from the banks and the ETFs being held, though another sheet in the spreadsheet is more comprehensive for the ETF purchases.

Do you see the word “iShares” appearing in eight of the ETFs listed? Yeah, well that’s BlackRock. Of the $1.58 billion in holdings, $746 million come from BlackRock ETFs. That’s about 47 percent of the total. So BlackRock, as the sponsor for the Fed, made 47 percent of its purchases in BlackRock ETFs. A separate chart lists aggregate holdings of $1.31 billion. BlackRock ETFs make up about 48 percent of them.

Read all of our Unsanitized reports

ETFs from State Street or Vanguard (the other two in the Big Three asset managers) track corporate bonds as well as BlackRock’s. Yet BlackRock ETFs comprise nearly half of the purchases thus far. Since they’re administering the purchases, it’s natural to wonder about a conflict of interest.

Investors may be lemmings sometimes but they’re not idiots. They’re correct to figure that a corporate bond ETF-buying program directed by one of the leading sellers of corporate bond ETFs will work out in the way described. So we’ve seen huge inflows into BlackRock corporate bond ETFs. “Traders Pour $1 Billion Into Biggest Credit Fund ETF to Front-Run Fed,” blares this Bloomberg headline, and to mildly translate, it means that investors, knowing that the Fed is about to buy a lot of the BlackRock iShares Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETF (known as LQD), dumped $1 billion into it in anticipation. Those inflows came on March 23, the day that the Fed announced it would buy corporate bond funds. This kept growing: by May 20, LQD had $46.7 billion in it, compared to 28.2 billion on March 19.
From: https://prospect.org/api/amp/coronavirus/unsanitized-blackrock-buyer-and-seller-federal-reserve-bailout/
Z
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Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

Z
In reply to this post by Harvey
I do not pay any attn to your index Harv as it means nothing to me just as my method is incomprehensible to you

I am now back to or slightly above my previous high water mark so I’m good.  You are probably about 15% below yours.  I can tell you it’s been a lot of work and research on my part to get there And it’s more than I really want to do

I’m looking to off load more to my advisor
if You French Fry when you should Pizza you are going to have a bad time
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Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

Harvey
Administrator
Z wrote
I do not pay any attn to your index Harv
Well I guess the comparo is off huh. I guess we will have to agree to disagree.  The real issue is time frame, I don't judge strategy on three months.

Z wrote
You are probably about 15% below

5% down since the late Feb high for stocks. I'm 40% in bonds.
"You just need to go at that shit wide open, hang on, and own it." —Camp
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Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

MC2 5678F589
Harvey wrote
.
Z wrote
You are probably about 15% below
5% down since the late Feb high for stocks. I'm 40% in bonds.
I was in stocks & cash, used cash to buy stocks on the way down, and I'm probably like 10% off my highs.

I have made more money in stocks in the last week than most essential workers have made working full time for months, and I don't even have that much money. Millionaires & Billionaires are jumping for joy
Z
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Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

Z
This market is nuts
Airline stocks are way up with AA up 25% today on schedule increases yet only 24% of people say it’s safe to fly
Big report on payrolls is on Friday and it could show strong rehiring which will add Jet fuel to the market

My concern is this really sustainable with this economy?  I may think about taking some profits Nd money off the table next week As I think there has to be a bubble brewing

I admit I may have been wrong as indexes With what I called crap like the airlines are roaring back
if You French Fry when you should Pizza you are going to have a bad time
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Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

Harvey
Administrator
Funny thing about the market huh.

Back to within 2% over here.
"You just need to go at that shit wide open, hang on, and own it." —Camp
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Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

MC2 5678F589
Really good job numbers today, but it seems like it's a lot of workers like camp (people laid off, then rehired when portions of the economy were reopened). Still a ways to go. Lots of people won't be rehired.

I think the market is overbought. I might take some money off the table today.
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Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

nepa
In reply to this post by Z
Z wrote
This market is nuts
On November of 2006 the first alarm bells rang for what we now call the Great Recession.  The market stood just south of 12k.  We bottomed out just North of 6.6k in March of 2009.  We didn't recover to the pre-crisis level until May of 2012.

Quantitatively, on a number of levels, the current market behavior defies traditional wisdom.  That should say something in terms of risk.

I just bought 15 acres of land... seems like a safer investment than our national casino we call equity markets.
Z
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Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

Z
In reply to this post by MC2 5678F589
I sold off Some winning this morning but kept the positions

When MC and I agree watch out

It would no sense to go much higher.  the Dow Is within 10% of all time high when the economy was running at perfection at the end of a bull market.  Sentiment alone compared to earnings is driving this.
if You French Fry when you should Pizza you are going to have a bad time
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Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

x10003q
In reply to this post by nepa
nepa wrote
Z wrote
This market is nuts
On November of 2006 the first alarm bells rang for what we now call the Great Recession.  The market stood just south of 12k.  We bottomed out just North of 6.6k in March of 2009.  We didn't recover to the pre-crisis level until May of 2012.

Quantitatively, on a number of levels, the current market behavior defies traditional wisdom.  That should say something in terms of risk.

I just bought 15 acres of land... seems like a safer investment than our national casino we call equity markets.
Traditional financial wisdom rarely encounters a pandemic. Most companies will come out of this leaner.

Good luck with your land.
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Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

nepa
x10003q wrote
Traditional financial wisdom rarely encounters a pandemic. Most companies will come out of this leaner.

Good luck with your land.
Thanks x

You're right, but I think we're looking at a situation where it will take a few years for demand to recover.  Some sectors remain unaffected.  A few sectors may even grow faster than before.  All that being said, aggregate demand will suffer as the effects of the stimulants start to wane.  High unemployment and various fear related aspects will also constrain overall demand in the mid to long-term.  The equity markets appear to be moving contrary to the current economic outlook.

I think we're in for a crazy ride.      
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Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

MC2 5678F589
In reply to this post by x10003q
x10003q wrote
. Most companies will come out of this leaner..
Another way to say this is:

Less people will have jobs, jobs might pay less, and our collective purchasing power will be lower.
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Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

witch hobble
In reply to this post by nepa
nepa wrote
demand will suffer as the effects of the stimulants start to wane.  
This has not been my experience.......oh, wait....you’re talking about the stock market. Carry on.
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Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

nepa
witch hobble wrote
nepa wrote
demand will suffer as the effects of the stimulants start to wane.  
This has not been my experience.......oh, wait....you’re talking about the stock market. Carry on.
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Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

x10003q
In reply to this post by nepa
nepa wrote
x10003q wrote
Traditional financial wisdom rarely encounters a pandemic. Most companies will come out of this leaner.

Good luck with your land.
Thanks x

You're right, but I think we're looking at a situation where it will take a few years for demand to recover.  Some sectors remain unaffected.  A few sectors may even grow faster than before.  All that being said, aggregate demand will suffer as the effects of the stimulants start to wane.  High unemployment and various fear related aspects will also constrain overall demand in the mid to long-term.  The equity markets appear to be moving contrary to the current economic outlook.

I think we're in for a crazy ride.
Good points and a crazy ride for sure. Cheap money will cover up a lot of issues.
The market might also be anticipating a return to 'normal' president who has a history of working with both sides of the aisle and will stock the administration with professionals that have appropriate credentials for their positions (like no brain surgeons running HUD). A president who will listen to the professionals to make decisions and stabilize the current unpredictability. A president who will stop fighting with our allies/trading partners because it is bad for business.
Z
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Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

Z
This post was updated on .
Well there goes this thread into the dumper

Let’s me put it this way
If you care about your retirement accounts there is only one choice in this election to make
It would also be best for the market that the status quo remains in regards to control of house senate and WH
If all three go one way And should a certain the nutty lady who falsely claimed to be an Native American becomes Sec Tres you can kiss your retire savings bye bye.  We would see the Dow below 15k
If that happens buy gold and guns
if You French Fry when you should Pizza you are going to have a bad time
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Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

nepa
Z wrote
Well there goes this thread into the dumper

Let’s me put it this way
If you care about your retirement accounts there is only one choice in this election to make
It would also be best for the market that the status quo remains in regards to control of house senate and WH
If all three go one way And should a certain the nutty lady who falsely claimed to be an Native American becomes Sec Tres you can kiss your retire savings bye bye.  We would see the Dow below 15k
If that happens buy gold and guns
I don't think what X said was overly political... no more than your comment.  I don't find either offensive, they're opinions and both should be heard.

With our current trajectory, I think we'll sew our own seeds of financial destruction regardless of the politics.
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Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

witch hobble
In reply to this post by Z
Z wrote
Well there goes this thread into the dumper

Let’s me put it this way
If you care about your retirement accounts there is only one choice in this election to make
It would also be best for the market that the status quo remains in regards to control of house senate and WH
If all three go one way And should a certain the nutty lady who falsely claimed to be an Native American becomes Sec Tres you can kiss your retire savings bye bye.  We would see the Dow below 15k
If that happens buy gold and guns
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