NYSkiBlog Forum Archive › Off Topic

Market Philosophy: What You Got?

Classic

List

Threaded

Locked 664 messages Options

1 ... 25262728293031 ... 34

x10003q

Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

Harvey wrote

x10003q wrote

The 3 different companies I worked for over the years all allowed stock trading in my 401K.

Did they limit your trading?

Nope. I just had to sign off that I was an idiot.

I mainly did it to purchase EFTs with lower expenses vs the funds available in the 401k. Eventually, the last 401K included low cost funds and more choices.

Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

In reply to this post by JTG4eva!

JTG4eva! wrote

The two retirement/401(k) accounts I’ve saved in don’t provide an individual stock trading option. Like a said, moot convo for some people, unless they have multiple accounts. Given how many people don’t have much of any retirement savings, how many do you think have multiple accounts?

Nothing wrong with having investments in more than one account, including taxable accounts. Did someone imply that there was? Making moves in a taxable account does require more planning. College money for my boys is not in a tax deferred account, and all trading options are open to me. I trust my advisor on that one, and we’ve made some adjustments to the account, which does include some individual stock...but like Z, that’s a relatively small percentage of the portfolio. He hasn’t, however, advised putting the bulk of the money in individual stocks. Too much on the line to gamble it all on individual investments.

Still curious where Z has the bulk of his investments. 15% is tied up in the Z-strat, could the rest be in.....mutual/index funds?

Up until a couple years ago I was like 90% in stocks. Thankfully I changed that before this mess

My individual stock portfolio is alway less than 25% of my total. Right now it’s a bit under 20%
Another 30% is in stock mutual funds of which indexes and index sector efts are like 5%
50% is run by my financial advisor and is in bonds ladders and other lower risk assets

My advisor is comfortable with me being aggressive with that stock portfolio since it’s balanced by the lower risk side and I don’t go over 2.5% of total in any one stock

I’m 54 so my balance is important

If I was in my 30s that dip was the buying opportunity of a lifetime. I would have been all in

if You French Fry when you should Pizza you are going to have a bad time

JTG4eva!

Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

Mutual funds vs. index funds...in the context of the discussion of individual stocks vs funds are they all that much different? Mutual funds are actively managed and someone is picking the stocks in the fund, but the intent is to diversify to reduce risk, which also limits potential returns (vs. picking individual stock winners).

We REALLY need a proper roll eyes emoji!!

Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

Index fund proponents would say an actively managed fund is higher cost and that is true
Right now though an index can’t avoid the flaming piles of garbage stocks like airlines restaurants hotels etc
Actively managed mutual funds can more easily avoid companies with poor Covid exposure and buy Covid winners
It is worth the diffferent you pay in fees of a half percent

Large caps are also going to strongly out perform small caps in this environment
If you buy Harvs full market index you get lots of small and mid cap exposure which is not a good thing for the foreseeable future

if You French Fry when you should Pizza you are going to have a bad time

MC2 5678F589

Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

Z wrote

If you buy Harvs full market index you get lots of small and mid cap exposure which is not a good thing for the foreseeable future

If small & midcaps are struggling, they'll get bought by larger players (that are flush with cash), usually at a premium to their stock price at the time. I don't think it's bad to own small & midcap funds (they make up about 18% & 11% of my holdings).

Harvey

Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

Administrator

MC2 5678F589 wrote

... small & midcap funds (they make up about 18% & 11% of my holdings).

This is prudent IMO. Especially now.

The biggest issue with indexes in my view is the underweighting of small and mid caps. That's why the most basic portfolio should include at least three funds to add diversification:

VTSAX
VSMAX or VISVX
VBTLX

If you want to diversify further:

VGTSX
VGSIX
VIPSX

OK Z let me have it!

"You just need to go at that shit wide open, hang on, and own it." —Camp

Harvey

Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

Administrator

In reply to this post by Z

Z wrote

Right now though an index can’t avoid the flaming piles of garbage stocks like airlines restaurants hotels etc

Definitely sell all that right now!

"You just need to go at that shit wide open, hang on, and own it." —Camp

Harvey

Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

Administrator

In reply to this post by Z

Z wrote

50% is in bonds ladders and other lower risk assets

That's pretty awesome if you feel set at 54. Congrats.

"You just need to go at that shit wide open, hang on, and own it." —Camp

Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

In reply to this post by MC2 5678F589

I happened to have my quarterly review with my advisor yesterday
His advice that I fully agreed to is under weighting small cap is the smart move right now
They will have a harder time raising funds to survive

if You French Fry when you should Pizza you are going to have a bad time

MC2 5678F589

Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

Z wrote

I happened to have my quarterly review with my advisor yesterday
His advice that I fully agreed to is under weighting small cap is the smart move right now
They will have a harder time raising funds to survive

Some might go under. Some might thrive. I'm not worried. I have a long time horizon and a pretty good amount of money saved for a 39 year old guy. Just refinanced my house down to 15 years, too. I'm stress free.... Especially if Trump agrees to fund this:
https://www.vox.com/2020/5/12/21254397/next-coronavirus-stimulus-package-democrats-heroes-act

Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

You are younger than me so you can afford to be more aggressive and if you have some losses you have a bigger window to recover than me
Smart move MC refi at these crazy low rates
Paying your house off in your mid 50s really sets you up for retirement well.
Congrats on a good plan

if You French Fry when you should Pizza you are going to have a bad time

MC2 5678F589

Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

While it’s trending up I’m having a hard time with how much the market is coming back up
So far the indexes have held up but that can’t happen much longer with the crappy earnings
Big bubble is brewing with 5 stocks making up for 25% of the qqq and S&p 500 that means the others are not carrying their weight And the house of cards will come crashing down

if You French Fry when you should Pizza you are going to have a bad time

Harvey

Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

Administrator

By how much is your 10 stock portfolio beating VTSAX?

Since May 8 and/or March 25.

"You just need to go at that shit wide open, hang on, and own it." —Camp

MC2 5678F589

Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

In reply to this post by Z

Z wrote

While it’s trending up I’m having a hard time with how much the market is coming back up
So far the indexes have held up but that can’t happen much longer with the crappy earnings
Big bubble is brewing with 5 stocks making up for 25% of the qqq and S&p 500

Agree.

I think we're in for a reckoning here. It just doesn't seem like the stock market guys are understanding the ripple effects that will come from people staying home and not spending on travel, restaurants, bars, etc.

MC2 5678F589

Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

Incredible drop in spending on services. Not great for a service economy.

Harvey

Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

Administrator

With portfolio recovering all but 5% from the all time high, it probably makes sense to move to that 50/50 I've been thinking about (from 60/40) but I just can't do it. At this point it's against my dna.

Another thing I've been thinking about is the "target retirement" fund we are using. Probably makes sense, on retirement to break them out into the individual funds, so withdrawals can be managed more effectively.

Z how is the comparison between VTSAX and your 10 fund portfolio looking?

"You just need to go at that shit wide open, hang on, and own it." —Camp

MC2 5678F589

Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

I'm not sure about what to do with this chart. Does it mean that people are keeping a lot of money on the side, and are willing to spend it when they are able to? Or does it mean people are nervous as hell about how the next few years will shake out, and are saving money because they are anticipating a few years of lowered wages:

Brownski

Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

Yes

"You want your skis? Go get 'em!" -W. Miller

MC2 5678F589

Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

Personal income up 10.5% in April:
https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/personal-income-and-outlays-april-2020

1 ... 25262728293031 ... 34