Storm Speculation: 12/22/12

Here's a storm that both the GFS...



and the Euro...



...seem to be seeing.

those are rain events, sorry to say

How much do the models have to change for them to be snow? Is it going to be close or is there no way? LOoking at whiteface here.


Thanks
-skisheep

for a all snow event the models would have to reposition the system by 200mile to the S.E.
There will be some lake effect and snow on the backside of the cold front. The plus side is, this will establish a prolonged period of cold..

Oh well had a feeling that that was the case. Horray for cold though!

-skisheep

I know these totals are usually way high but the GFS seems to have some cold air in the area?



I'm not giving up yet.

  might be some what right..most of that will be lake effect on the backside of the storm..
still think it's a ugly week coming up, but next week looks a lot better..

Good write up from Darrin:

http://www.ilsnow.com/2012/12/16/wild-weather-week-straight-ahead/

Both this year and last the forecast looks good a week or so out and then disappoints - what's up with that?  Any idea why this keep happening?

Coach Z wrote

Both this year and last the forecast looks good a week or so out and then disappoints - what's up with that?  Any idea why this keep happening?

Unfortunately.....I think it may be Global Warming...and the way things have become!

love the guy with the foil hat

There is a very nasty looking green glob on the radar headed this way eat our snow

I was going to ski Tuesday morning but if I get up and its raining I'll probably decide to save the vacation day

Save the day..aint lookin pretty

blame the pacific, I have slim hope that the storm for thursday/friday can change to snow for a few inches before ending.  Otherwise looks like some lake effect is possible this weekend, maybe whiteface can get lucky since Gore would get nothing.

Looks like WF has lots of moisture in the air after the 0c isotherm passes through, and not too much beforehand.

the 850mb zero line is to the east , but the surface wind is out of the east/south east.

this is not a big snow producing scenario...the lake effect machine might get cranked up along with some nice orographic precipt .

JasonWx wrote

this is not a big snow producing scenario...the lake effect machine might get cranked up along with some nice orographic precipt .

I know its not NYS, but snowing here all day Sunday, freezing rain/rain yesterday, snowing again since last night. Charlevoix, Saguenay, Laurentians and Maine look pretty good...however I'm not glued to the screen as I have little time to ski. Looking for ski gear for my racing daughter...hard when you don't have a trust fund.

just walked the dog without a coat on - this is not good

Coach Z wrote

just walked the dog without a coat on - this is not good

You or the dog?

Sick Bird Rider wrote

You or the dog?

He'll be here all season folks! Just getting warmed up!